Wyoming general season elk tags

[wapitibob]

History only proves history.

It does not forcast the future.

I have been burned by Wyoming and Gohunt on antelope about 5 times. Last year it took 9.5 and I had 9 and only 1/3rd of the people with 9 got a tag.

Do not mistake the history of the draws with the future of the draws.

There are also draws that happen to reverse. I drew an elk tag that should have taken more than the forcasted amount a couple years ago.

and exactly how did you get burned by gohunt?

 

[Mojave]

Both Go Hunt and Wyoming claimed that I could draw with x number of points, and in many cases it took 1-3 more points than they had indicated. So instead of choosing units the state and gohunt showed as being 100% draw with for example 5 points and applying with 7 providing myself some cushion. I applied with 5 points expecting to draw. Every year I listened to them and was in a point bracket that would be equal or close I never drew a tag.

Not sure what gohunt forcasted my Wyoming tag for in 2022, but I drew it with 9. I think their original forcast was 6 or 7. If you want a tag you need to build in cushion.

You guys that think you can calculate the draw odds in 2023 based on draw odds in 2022 or any other year are drinking serious coolaid.

You might get lucky, you might not.

 

[160andup]

Both Go Hunt and Wyoming claimed that I could draw with x number of points, and in many cases it took 1-3 more points than they had indicated. So instead of choosing units the state and gohunt showed as being 100% draw with for example 5 points and applying with 7 providing myself some cushion. I applied with 5 points expecting to draw. Every year I listened to them and was in a point bracket that would be equal or close I never drew a tag.

Not sure what gohunt forcasted my Wyoming tag for in 2022, but I drew it with 9. I think their original forcast was 6 or 7. If you want a tag you need to build in cushion.

You guys that think you can calculate the draw odds in 2023 based on draw odds in 2022 or any other year are drinking serious coolaid.

You might get lucky, you might not.

Gohunt doesn’t “forecast” any expected point level for you to draw a tag. I have a lot of issues with gohunt but them burning you on their “forecast” isn’t one of them. If a unit took 9 points to draw last year 100%, and you’re hoping to draw this year with 9 you need to look at how many people were in that 8 point pool because that’s where you stand with your points. Then add a little cushion for the folks sitting on the sideline. There’s no forecasting but you can get damn close in most instances.

 

[ckleeves]

It’s going to be interesting. I think the amount of fear mongering will definitely cause a decent number of 5-8 point guys to jump ship and apply for Gen.

Which there will always be “over pointed” guys applying for pretty much any hunt. The question this year will be how many? The amount of points in people’s hands for Wy is pretty alarming, I mean if 25% of the guys holding 7 points decide to jump into general regular draw this year it wipes out the entire quota.

 

[wapitibob]

Gohunt doesn’t “forecast” any expected point level for you to draw a tag. I have a lot of issues with gohunt but them burning you on their “forecast” isn’t one of them. If a unit took 9 points to draw last year 100%, and you’re hoping to draw this year with 9 you need to look at how many people were in that 8 point pool because that’s where you stand with your points. Then add a little cushion for the folks sitting on the sideline. There’s no forecasting but you can get damn close in most instances.

^^^
should be required reading for anybody applying to WY

 

[Elkoholic87]

Why the hell would you show that much trust to Gohunt?


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[BRTreedogs]

What about the thousands of people that have been have points and have never applied.
They can choose to jump in at any time.

 

[BarCO]

What about the thousands of people that have been have points and have never applied.
They can choose to jump in at any time.

Oddly enough looking at the breakdown of PP approximately 120k point holders out of a total 165k have 4 or less points. There are not that many in each point category above.

 

[160andup]

What about the thousands of people that have been have points and have never applied.
They can choose to jump in at any time.

I know what all the YouTube videos and influencer hype says… They certainly can jump in, but they don’t. Not everyone can/will/or wants to jump in and apply on a given year. I’m sure this year will be the exception to some degree due to the hype and fear mongering caused by dozens of high profile influencers. But many people just don’t know how to apply the data provided to them and then get pissed at the website that provided them those data… using what’s available paints a picture that can be used to draw some pretty accurate estimates of what will happen in the draw each year. Always has. This year will likely be a bit different but in years past it has worked very well if you just take the time to dig into it.

 

[BarCO]

I will add I just logged into see my PP and is says it can’t find any, so that is unnerving

 

[wapitibob]

What about the thousands of people that have been have points and have never applied.
They can choose to jump in at any time.

This is the number of people at each point level in 2020, who did not apply for a hunt, and only bought a point. They also don't show up on the draw reports because they didn't apply. I should have the 2022 numbers from the dept in a week or so.

 

[BRTreedogs]

I'm definitely not en tune with the data like I should be. I wish I had the brain power.
But just trying to learn the point and app process the last few years has been hard.

I try to just keep track of the over a tread and apply for hunt that sound fun, fit my schedule and I think I may draw.
But the deets and nuance is lost alot on me.

I'm also scared about saving points and units going down hill. That happened to me here.

It just would seem like it wouldn't take much for the sideliners to really flood point levels.

I agree with watching historical treads. But the state is changing, so apps may change as well.

All you really can do is apply and try.
Unfortunately WY I don't think fits in for 2023

Dang jobs

 

[FlareBlitz91]

I would bet that the average point golder/applicant doesn't have a clue about 90-10 or increasing fees.

90/10 isn’t on the table for elk

 

[FlareBlitz91]

This is the number of people at each point level in 2020, who did not apply for a hunt, and only bought a point. They also don't show up on the draw reports because they didn't apply. I should have the 2022 numbers from the dept in a week or so.

View attachment 498561

People don’t seem to understand this, they think point creep is infinite, but it by definition can’t be. Nobody can get higher than the top, nobody can go back in time to buy points, and every year more of the higher point holders punch their ticket.

And 90% of point holders are burning points as soon as they can. You can’t take preference points with you when you’re dead after all.

 

[wapitibob]

It just would seem like it wouldn't take much for the sideliners to really flood point levels.

That's what Newberg was talking about in his "burn your points" vid. I get the numbers from a custom dept report, he calculates the numbers himself, but we end up at the same conclusion; there are enough people on the sidelines, virtually invisible, that can drop your odds to zero in any given year. He believes they'll jump in this year, I don't. Time will tell and then we'll move on..
Since I don't know when they'll jump, I just do as 160andup described above and it's worked very well since WY started the NR E/D/A draws.

 

[Indian Summer]

Both Go Hunt and Wyoming claimed that I could draw with x number of points, and in many cases it took 1-3 more points than they had indicated. So instead of choosing units the state and gohunt showed as being 100% draw with for example 5 points and applying with 7 providing myself some cushion. I applied with 5 points expecting to draw. Every year I listened to them and was in a point bracket that would be equal or close I never drew a tag.

Not sure what gohunt forcasted my Wyoming tag for in 2022, but I drew it with 9. I think their original forcast was 6 or 7. If you want a tag you need to build in cushion.

You guys that think you can calculate the draw odds in 2023 based on draw odds in 2022 or any other year are drinking serious coolaid.

You might get lucky, you might not.

That’s why you should listen to us instead. Lol

 

[Turkeygetpwnd38]

I burned 5 points for a general tag this last year, had a great hunt. No regerts.

 

[BRTreedogs]

That's what Newberg was talking about in his "burn your points" vid. I get the numbers from a custom dept report, he calculates the numbers himself, but we end up at the same conclusion; there are enough people on the sidelines, virtually invisible, that can drop your odds to zero in any given year. He believes they'll jump in this year, I don't. Time will tell and then we'll move on..
Since I don't know when they'll jump, I just do as 160andup described above and it's worked very well since WY started the NR E/D/A draws.

Most of my experience is looking at what the big 3 do in Oregon there is more people at max then there are tags so it just keeps climbing.
But in those scenarios 50 people make a huge difference.
So not exactly apples to apples.
I think quite a few people will jump. I just don't have any idea if it will be enough to make a measurable difference.
But ether way you can't control what they do.

It may just all be a big plot to get people out of the system??? Who knows.

I stated late so I don't apply in alot of states because I feel the odds are so low.
Wyoming is kinda the holy grail state for me. But I don't have a specific plan yet ether.

 

[FlareBlitz91]

Most of my experience is looking at what the big 3 do in Oregon there is more people at max then there are tags so it just keeps climbing.
But in those scenarios 50 people make a huge difference.
So not exactly apples to apples.
I think quite a few people will jump. I just don't have any idea if it will be enough to make a measurable difference.
But ether way you can't control what they do.

It may just all be a big plot to get people out of the system??? Who knows.

I stated late so I don't apply in alot of states because I feel the odds are so low.
Wyoming is kinda the holy grail state for me. But I don't have a specific plan yet ether.

For a Holy grail state I’d pick one where you’re not dependent on preference points.

 

[FlareBlitz91]

Doing the math i suppose i see the point, if everyone at 6 points jumped into the genera draw we’d all be hosed, but do we really think the pattern is suddenly going to break? A lot of them are holding out forever.

Also so what if they do? I’ll still hunt a Wyoming cow tag and consider going to Colorado instead. Life moves on.