Will Vehicle Prices Ever Decrease?

[Customweld]

I don't think that new vehicle prices are really that wild right now if you use some common sense. I think that the car selling model is changing from having 200+ vehicles on a lot to having people just order what they want online and get it delivered in 3-4 months. Most of the dealerships around here are tacking a 5-20% "scarcity fee" onto vehicles on their lot. It just takes advantage of the "gotta have it right now" crowd.

FWIW, I got a '22 F-250, 4wd, 7.3L gas for ~$48k. That's not too crazy. Big shout out to the guy on here a few months ago who told me about ordering it online.

I’ve got a F350 built online, just can’t get myself to finish the order!

 

[CJohnson]

I’ve got a F350 built online, just can’t get myself to finish the order!

Mine sat in an open tab for 6 months before I pulled the trigger on it.

 

[Wrench]

The price will stabilize a bit closer to normal, but considering the average guy is making 200k a year now and new trucks have historically been 50% of an annual salary....I doubt it'll be a huge difference.

 

[Customweld]

Mine sat in an open tab for 6 months before I pulled the trigger on it.

I sent my build sheet over to the local dealer one night after having a little too much “fun” and first thing the next morning my phone was ringing. I still can’t get over spending that much on a pickup.

 

[Mike D Texas]

Yup. If you could take the $20K and invest it and get a yield north of the interest rate paid against the car loan, you would be dollars ahead. Dave Ramsay's advice is good for people with just enough financial discipline to follow it, but it can also be a detriment to building wealth.

Interesting. I’ve done pretty well with Dave’s advice and the only thing I have leveraged is my house.


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[browning2480]

Interesting. I’ve done pretty well with Dave’s advice and the only thing I have leveraged is my house.


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Same. Some just like borrowing money. To each their own

 

[MattB]

Same. Some just like borrowing money. To each their own

Some just like making money, some people like being debt free. Generally speaking, there is little overlap.

While many who follow Dave Ramsay’s program to the tee will live comfortably, very few will become wealthy. Leverage can be an incredibly powerful financial tool when used appropriately.

A good analogy would be physical health. Ramsay’s methods are like looking totally at controlling caloric intake while ignoring the composition of those calories, exercise, sleep, stress, etc. Dieting is better than doing nothing, but it ignores a lot of other important factors.

 

[Poindexter]

I've been looking at used Tacomas for a while now. Prices are so stupid I'm actually considering a lease for the first time ever. 2008 Tacomas with 150000 miles going for $24K, gimme a damn break. In the next couple months I'll keep looking before I have to pull the trigger, but lease options actually seem reasonable to me at this point due to how expensive used cars are right now. Did the Build Your Truck thing on Toyota's website, looks like I could lease a 2022 SR5 double cab 4x4 V6 for total lease cost of $16K, and that's for 15000 miles a year, I think it would be about a thousand bucks less to only get 10000 miles a year, but that would be cutting it too close on miles for me.

I don't know how leases are working out in practice right now though with short inventory in general, new and used, but I bet a lot of people are considering leases right now that wouldn't have before.

A little Tacoma leasing lender tip…

Toyota publishes residuals and money factors in the first week of the month. Ally Bank and US Bank compete for the next 2 weeks on better residuals and money factors.

Most dealers don’t know this. They only look at the captive lenders (Toyota, BMW, Ford, etc.), so you’ll want to ask if they can do a lease through Ally or US Bank.

I see Tacoma residuals in the high 80% territory from Ally all the time at 36 months. Toyota is usually in the 70% range. The higher the residual, the lower the payment. With rates low, the residual is the most important factor in lowering a lease payment. Selling price is a factor too.

A 10% residual swing can make a $50 to $100 per month difference.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

Mine sat in an open tab for 6 months before I pulled the trigger on it.

My F250 sat at KMS for about that long built waiting on chips....The entire order to delivery process was a PIA. I like my truck but if that's going to be the new sales model buckle up folks. It's going to be more money for the dealers and they could care less about customer satisfaction...It removes any kind of leverage the customer has....They are actually hoping you don't take delivery when it shows up so they can put it on the lot and market it up 15k over MSRP and sell it the next day.

 

[browning2480]

Some just like making money, some people like being debt free. Generally speaking, there is little overlap.

While many who follow Dave Ramsay’s program to the tee will live comfortably, very few will become wealthy. Leverage can be an incredibly powerful financial tool when used appropriately.

A good analogy would be physical health. Ramsay’s methods are like looking totally at controlling caloric intake while ignoring the composition of those calories, exercise, sleep, stress, etc. Dieting is better than doing nothing, but it ignores a lot of other important factors.

I guess you should tell the thousands who follow his plan and have become wealthy that they shouldn’t be. From the stats I have seen and the people I actually know, I would say your very few comment is wrong. Also your comment from you previous post “Dave Ramsay's advice is good for people with just enough financial discipline to follow it”

It is ok for you to disagree and want to do something else, but you have made several disparaging comments about those who follow his plan. Not sure why you feel you need to do that, but if it makes you feel better, then go ahead.

This is also what my grandparents chose to do, before Dave Ramsey was alive. Live debt free, including your house, and invest for retirement with your income. It isn’t a new plan and I would assume they were happy with the millions they had when they retired.

This isn’t what this topic is even about, so let’s not derail it.

 

[timmymac24]

Random thought but why would the auto industry worry about most of folks that posted on here? A lot of good posts by the way. Too many people have no idea what their trade is worth or any idea how pricing works on new vehicles which is sad with all the tools available to the consumer today. So they wander to the dealerships where one of the vultures drags to them their desk and operates on the what do you want your payment to be concept. My dad would trade a truck before it needed new tires. I can't guess how much money he donated to local dealerships over his lifetime.

 

[aftriathlete]

A little Tacoma leasing lender tip…

Toyota publishes residuals and money factors in the first week of the month. Ally Bank and US Bank compete for the next 2 weeks on better residuals and money factors.

Most dealers don’t know this. They only look at the captive lenders (Toyota, BMW, Ford, etc.), so you’ll want to ask if they can do a lease through Ally or US Bank.

I see Tacoma residuals in the high 80% territory from Ally all the time at 36 months. Toyota is usually in the 70% range. The higher the residual, the lower the payment. With rates low, the residual is the most important factor in lowering a lease payment. Selling price is a factor too.

A 10% residual swing can make a $50 to $100 per month difference.

Man this forum is awesome. That is some great insider info that could save me some money. I just looked, and Ally posts their residuals regularly, looks like every month or every other month, and it shows .85 for the basest base model 2022 4x4 double cab, the SR model, and .78 for the SR5. That would make me go for the SR over the SR5 as it looks like that would make a significant difference in monthly payments on the order of $60-80 a month when combined with the lower MSRP. I'd just have to find a dealer who works with Ally. I’m gonna keep looking for the next month or two at used options for purchase, but if it comes down to it I have some good info now for leasing.

 

[Billinsd]

’m gonna keep looking for the next month or two at used options for purchase, but if it comes down to it I have some good info now for leasing.

Isn't leasing a car a bad idea? You pay extra if you drive over a certain amount and get dinged if you don't return the car in certain shape? I thought leasing for an individual was the most expensive way to have a car and most do this to lower their monthly payments and the pay more overall?
Thanks Bill

 

[aftriathlete]

Isn't leasing a car a bad idea? You pay extra if you drive over a certain amount and get dinged if you don't return the car in certain shape? I thought leasing for an individual was the most expensive way to have a car and most do this to lower their monthly payments and the pay more overall?
Thanks Bill

Sorta, yeah. I've never been interested in leasing as it feels like "renting" a car to me, you don't own it and are just making regular payments on it. But you have to factor in the price of what you would buy otherwise I suppose. Never been a more expensive time to buy a used truck than right now, not even close. So if it's gonna take $20K for a 15 year old Tacoma with 150K miles that doesn't even have Bluetooth connectivity, then leasing for 3 years with a total cost of $14K for a 2022 truck with some modern creature comforts and some amount of the maintenance included seems like less bad of a deal. (I'm not an expert on Toyota lease terms, but it does seem like it's pretty standard for a 3 year lease to come with at least 2 years of a maintenance plan as they obviously have an interest in the truck being maintained properly considering it's still theirs in the end.)

 

[Billinsd]

Same. Some just like borrowing money. To each their own

There are extremes in everything. I don't think anything likes to borrow money, rather most willingly borrow a lot of money to buy things they can't afford and are in debt or poorer by paying a lot of interest. I've bought cars with loans and without. I don't buy expensive cars and have paid low interest. I bought my daughter a new car for $25k on a low loan. Yes, I'm paying interest, but it's not much. I could have bought a cheaper used car with cash, but was willing to pay interest for a new, reliable car. I got a great deal on the car. The amount of interest I'll pay for this car is like going to Costco a couple times and it's infinitesimal compared to the family income. If interest rates were more than 4 or 5% the interest would have been to high and I probably would have bought a used car I could pay cash for. I'm dreaming of a new truck in a few years for $50k plus and will probably pay cash, because it would a lot of interest to pay.

I've worked over 31 years for a fantastic pension and assets and equity in my house and lived a very fun life doing most of the things I've wanted to do.

Life is full of balances and we have choices and my eyes are wide open.
Cheers Bill

 

[go_deep]

Sorta, yeah. I've never been interested in leasing as it feels like "renting" a car to me, you don't own it and are just making regular payments on it. But you have to factor in the price of what you would buy otherwise I suppose. Never been a more expensive time to buy a used truck than right now, not even close. So if it's gonna take $20K for a 15 year old Tacoma with 150K miles that doesn't even have Bluetooth connectivity, then leasing for 3 years with a total cost of $14K for a 2022 truck with some modern creature comforts and some amount of the maintenance included seems like less bad of a deal. (I'm not an expert on Toyota lease terms, but it does seem like it's pretty standard for a 3 year lease to come with at least 2 years of a maintenance plan as they obviously have an interest in the truck being maintained properly considering it's still theirs in the end.)

You can add a Bluetooth addapters to most vehicles for under $100, and 150k miles on a Toyota is likely half life. We're just trying to save you a good amount of money, but if you just want a new truck, then have at the lease.

 

[Redangus]

Once we overcome the chip shortage, supply should get back in line with demand. I don’t think this will mean that MSRP come down, but at least dealers may start giving deals under MSRP (this week the dealer quoted me a price $10k over MSRP). Once this happens, the used market prices will definitely come down.

 

[Billinsd]

You have to factor in all the costs of buying a car cash, or a loan or leasing a car and add them all up. The hardest part is being honest with yourself.

 

[Billinsd]

But you have to factor in the price of what you would buy otherwise I suppose. Never been a more expensive time to buy a used truck than right now, not even close. So if it's gonna take $20K for a 15 year old Tacoma with 150K miles that doesn't even have Bluetooth connectivity, then leasing for 3 years with a total cost of $14K for a 2022 truck with some modern creature comforts and some amount of the maintenance included seems like less bad of a deal. (I'm not an expert on Toyota lease terms, but it does seem like it's pretty standard for a 3 year lease to come with at least 2 years of a maintenance plan as they obviously have an interest in the truck being maintained properly considering it's still theirs in the end.)

If you buy the 15 year old Tacoma with 150,000 miles assuming it's been taken care of for $15k and drive it for 3 years it will probably be worth over $10 or may $15k in 3 years. Meaning you have lost any or much money. You could have a couple grand in repairs. 3 year lease you are out the payments and deposit, plus if you drive more than a certain amount or rough up the truck you will get dinged. Right you can get blue tooth and no thousand dollar (worst case) best case nothing repair bills.

If you don't drive much and take care of the truck you will be out the payments for three years versus possibly selling the used truck for what you bought it and no repairs, costing nothing

The big risk with a used car, especially from an individual is that there are hidden mechanical issues.

If you don't want to deal with a Tacoma with 150k miles, you get piece of mind with a lease that costs money and you risk getting dinged extra charges and fees when you turn it in.

I got a 20 year old Tacoma with 150k miles. It's very reliable, however it's not my daily driver, it sits in the garage waiting to go to home depot or camping, hunting trips. I did recently pay $400 for an exhaust sensor that I easily installed myself. The rack and pinion arm is starting to leak fluid and will cost a grand to fix. I recently ran a civic and maxima to 250k and 200k. It was cheaper than buying a new car, however, I was spending about $2,000 a year on repairs doing most myself. And it was stressful for me fixing the cars or going to the shop. I sold them both for not much and bought a 2017 civic for $23k out the door with 2% loan 5 year loan and am paying about $3,000 a year. Yes, driving the civic and maxima into the ground was cheaper, but paying a grand more a year for a new car is sure worth it to me.

My 2017 civic has 95k miles on it and I plan to sell when it reaches 125k or so, because that's when cars start needing repairs, even Toyotas and Hondas!!!

However, if I had 130k on that Civic NOW, I'd continue driving until new car prices go down. Cheers Bill

 

[aftriathlete]

I'm still looking for one to buy. But honestly old Tacomas are more risk than people pretend they are, they had terrible frame rotting issues before 2010. So if you don't find one that had the frame replaced under warranty, then you better be looking for 2011+ model years. 150K miles is not a super unreasonable amount of miles for a reliable truck like that, but the drive train isn't the only problem you can have either.