Why are NR still applying in North Dakota for deer?

[Legend]

With the odds being so terribly poor why are people even applying and building points here?
With the gratis deduction there is nothing left for the NR to even apply for.

1705 people applying for 2 NR mule deer buck tags last season? People have lost their damn minds and at this point its actually quite funny.

The even funnier/sad/ridiculous part is that they are still issued 18,000 doe tags in the state when their population is at a decades low number.

https://www.kxnet.com/north-dakota-news/ndgf-tough-season-deer-hunters/

Terrible management of a resource.

Some people just don't understand math.
I did a quick stab at another NR example. In 2025 Montana had about 5,111,947 sheep applications (after squaring bonus points). In 2025 we gave out 7 tags to NR apps. So if you apply with zero points (1/5,111,846) you are one very optimistic person.....or just poor with math.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

Wow. Thank you for sharing.

This is incredibly depressing. Have the odds always been this bad for NR? I've been building points for the past 4 years.

So to answer your question, the reason I was applying as a NR is I was either looking at the resident stats and mistook those as the same for NR, or something has changed in the last year or two since I last looked because I was apparently mistaken that I would have a chance at drawing once I got to 6-10 points. I live in Montana and rarely see a mule deer I get excited about, I actually thought NoDak was an under-the-radar mule deer state since it isn't mountainous. Guess I was wrong there too lol.

This sure seems like a borderline scam. I accept responsibility for not doing further research, and at $5/ year IIRC I'm not out much, but can anyone find an example of another legal lottery where they are accepting tags/entries for a prize that doesn't exist??

 

[Axlrod]

Those might be poor odds, but the odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are 1 in 302,575,350. And 12-24 million tickets are sold every week, so humans are unreasonably optimistic.
On a related note, last week I put in for Mt special permits, it is my 50th year for sheep and goat. Maybe this is the year for me!

 

[MallardSX2]

Wow. Thank you for sharing.

This is incredibly depressing. Have the odds always been this bad for NR? I've been building points for the past 4 years.

So to answer your question, the reason I was applying as a NR is I was either looking at the resident stats and mistook those as the same for NR, or something has changed in the last year or two since I last looked because I was apparently mistaken that I would have a chance at drawing once I got to 6-10 points. I live in Montana and rarely see a mule deer I get excited about, I actually thought NoDak was an under-the-radar mule deer state since it isn't mountainous. Guess I was wrong there too lol.

This sure seems like a borderline scam. I accept responsibility for not doing further research, and at $5/ year IIRC I'm not out much, but can anyone find an example of another legal lottery where they are accepting tags/entries for a prize that doesn't exist??

You can look at prior years statistics but the odds have been going downhill for years now to the point that it’s simply not worth applying anymore unless you truly think that the population will rebound in a major way.

I wouldn’t hold your breath with their management strategies that are currently in place.

 

[NDHUNTER24]

They are saying that deer numbers are still down across the state because of the 22/23 winter and EHD outbreak. Parts of the state had an 80% die off.

What I don't understand is why they are still issuing 18,000 doe tags.

Maybe the snarky math wizards can help me understand that.........

I dont have all, if any answers but there are a few units that still have high numbers of doe tags for CWD. 3F1,3F2 3A1 for example. As far as EHD it wiped out some units more than others, especially along the missouri river "mostly whitetails". They still give out any doe tags because there are a fair amount of muleys that are in the units. The winter IMO hit our area where we hunt more than EHD. Theres about half of the deer that we would see before the winter. With that said when my wife shot her deer this year we saw 15 does and 4 bucks the day she shot her buck. The deer numbers are down yes. But there are definitely areas where deer numbers are still doing alright.

 

[ddowning]

Its Cheap, Giant Deer, Lots of public land in western side of the state

Very True, I think the NR gratis shouldn't exist and they should be in the same lottery as the rest of us

True but not completely accurate. There are some decent #'s of mule deer found outside of the well known units that fall under the ANY ANTLERED DEER. Access is tougher in these units but there are slightly better odds & a few more tags available.

so true, & i think because of the pressure they receive from residents that still want some sort of opportunity beings Rifle tags are still hard to draw for residents

G&F did take way too long to start reducing tags after the horrible drought in 20/21 which was then followed up by some horrible winters

While this would be huge for the whitetail population they are really going to need to increase $$ for farmers to take that marginal land out of production. There are just too many other subsidized programs right now that it doesn't financially make sense for them to enroll in CRP or the new Legacy Soil Health Program. I personally know farmers who want to enroll in CRP but they would loose money, they can make more through other insurances or programs.

Lifetime Member of MDF and have went to many MDF banquets in western ND back when i lived there. I also purchase a couple hundred dollars of MDF North dakota raffle tickets every year. Top prize is statewide MD tag (odds better than actual lottery) with proceeds going to PLOTs program

I'm from Iowa, but the new crp program and other incentives (actually lack of) are seeing tons of habitat dozed flat, terraced, and pattern tiled. The ag industry creates a mess for conservation, habitat, and water quality. It is a massive mess that has needed addressed for a long time. It will never actually get fixed as doing so would be political suicide. This is why we badly need politicians that just want to serve one term to fix things and go back home. The hardest part of that is that everything is stacked against them, so they have to be extremely smart, determined, and fearless to actually get it accomplished. Frankly, the amount of change in hunting/habitat in my adult life is staggering and the consequences for my kids/grandkids are hard to stomach.

 

[WMDM]

They are saying that deer numbers are still down across the state because of the 22/23 winter and EHD outbreak. Parts of the state had an 80% die off.

What I don't understand is why they are still issuing 18,000 doe tags.

Maybe the snarky math wizards can help me understand that.........

Because the G&F is self-funded. They rely on the profit from the sale of tags. Additionally, they don't care about the deer population.

 

[MuleyFever]

I bow hunted ND a few years in a row back about 15-20 years ago. It was such a fun hunt. Deer everywhere. Sad to see where it's at now.

 

[jkoehle1]

I sure don't hear about or see pictures of big bucks coming out of western ND like I used to.

I do not either.

Kind of suprising considering their management.

 

[wind gypsy]

yeah, I wouldn’t and don’t mess around with ND muley apps. Whitetail is a little more worth while.

 

[Weldor]

5,111.947 crazy.

 

[Fatcamp]

They are saying that deer numbers are still down across the state because of the 22/23 winter and EHD outbreak. Parts of the state had an 80% die off.

What I don't understand is why they are still issuing 18,000 doe tags.

Maybe the snarky math wizards can help me understand that.........

Honestly? I think that the state biologists I've interacted with have a whole lot more book sense than actual field time or common sense.


Limited for sure, but I have not been impressed.

 

[TheGrayRider]

I put about 30 seconds into picking AZ sheep apps but do it anyway because it's basically free when you're applying for elk and deer already. Got any hot tips so i dont apply in the zones where there wont be a NR tag at all?

Lightning does strike every so often. I blindly threw unresearched applications at Arizona Desert Bighorn Sheep in 2022 with 13 NR points and hit my first choice. You just never know…



I don’t apply in North Dakota for deer but I still believe in plain, old dumb luck that someone has to hit!



Apply, apply, apply! Good luck and happy hunting to all, TheGrayRider a/k/a Tom.

 

[NDGuy]

Is it that bad? The population.

Yes, the last 15 years has completely wrecked the deer. Bad winters, coyotes, huge loss of CRP/habitat.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

You can look at prior years statistics but the odds have been going downhill for years now to the point that it’s simply not worth applying anymore unless you truly think that the population will rebound in a major way.

I wouldn’t hold your breath with their management strategies that are currently in place.

Yea this is the dilemma, if it's just $5 I'll probably keep buying points in hope that 5, 10 or 20 years things change. Generally populations are cyclical, but who knows how long the dip will be but I think if in 20 years guys with 20 points are drawing I would be remissed that I didn't build them for $5/year . I see the archery tag seems like a good chance draw, might look at going that route too but something about a rifle and mule deer just seem to go together for me.

 

[NDGuy]

They are saying that deer numbers are still down across the state because of the 22/23 winter and EHD outbreak. Parts of the state had an 80% die off.

It was REAAAAL bad. And very localized. Some untouched some areas got absolutely hammered.

 

[WMDM]

Yes, the last 15 years has completely wrecked the deer. Bad winters, coyotes, huge loss of CRP/habitat.

Yup and after the huge winter kill G&F issued way too many tags.