What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[Hill Difficulty]

Even at 1.4% fatality that is about 10 times more deadly than the flu. I fully agree that influenza is nothing to scoff at. But the only reason this hasn't killed more people is it hasn't been around to kill them.

I hope it goes away with the coming of spring, but if not it will certainly be more deadly than the flu by the time it is done.

As you said though. Common sense cleanliness will prevent a lot of issues

Right, 3% of a huge number is a huge number.

 

[ODB]

the Denominator will rise much faster than the numerator for fatalities as testing becomes more prevalent and accurate. This will lower the death rate substantially. It’s inevitable. It’s been here since before we even had a name for it. We are just catching up to it.

 

[Mule3006Elk]

A high percentage of those fatalities are from within China. Hubei Province in particular. One reference noted a HIGH prevalence of smoking within that population. If that holds true you're looking at patients with emphysema and/or chronic bronchitis to some degree. Meaning, that group is high-risk, for respiratory complications, due to pulmonary status. In fact, one reference noted an unusually high death rate among men in the 40's which they attributed to smoking/pulmonary disease within that group. They also noted women in the same age group same population fared better, they may have better genetics, so there's a lot of speculation going around. I'm working right now. If I can track the article down I'll post it.

Point is, there is good data out there but one really has to sift through it. Reminds me of the telephone game when we were kids. He said, she said, etc. Stick to good references and the picture is much more clear (IMHO). Some examples: Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, CDC, WHO.

Just because the Chinese population, more so their social history, puts them at high-risk, doesn't mean we can generalize that data to the masses. The bulk of the fatality sample size is from China. It's a piece of the puzzle no question. However, we can safely conclude those with pulmonary conditions are at a much higher risk than those without.

 

[Mule3006Elk]

the Denominator will rise much faster than the numerator for fatalities as testing becomes more prevalent and accurate. This will lower the death rate substantially. It’s inevitable. It’s been here since before we even had a name for it. We are just catching up to it.

Agree

 

[Desk Jockey]

Getting weird around the big Apple. Some big employers from NYC are suggesting to voluntarily restrict non essential travel and are reminding employees about telecommuting options. Heavy emphasis on self identifying those who are ill and telling them to stay out of the office. Just closed a private school in NJ with 2 confirmed cases. So far school communication in NYC suburbs has been about hygiene and prevention. Quietly a friend in the administration of our school district said it is not if but when they expect to have to close the schools.

 

[SlickStickSlinger]

Watch the stock market gentlemen. Try not to be blinded by the virus. If the market cant recover and keeps dropping, we have bigger issues at hand.

 

[ericF]

Everybody keeps talking about the 2-3% death rate, but that is irrelevant unless you specifically look at the various age groups. It is simply amazing that there have been no recorded deaths of children less then 10 years old. If you are less than 50 years old, then yes, this is just a worse version of the flu as other people have mentioned. If you are over 50 then yes this can be very serious especially if there are co morbidity factors as has already been mentioned. The press is definitely driving hysteria, but that is what drives their business. The media is not in the business of providing news, but making money.

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old​	​	0.2%​
0-9 years old	​	no fatalities​

 

[Trial153]

The fed slashing rate a half a point is an enigma to me, did they really think we wouldn’t see that as panic sign. A more measured response would have made more sense. WTF are they thinking

 

[SlickStickSlinger]

The fed slashing rate a half a point is an enigma to me, did they really think we wouldn’t see that as panic sign. A more measured response would have made more sense. WTF are they thinking

Hopefully it isnt intentional and it will be corrected. This worries me more than the virus right now. We need more time

 

[Yakykgoose]

Everybody keeps talking about the 2-3% death rate, but that is irrelevant unless you specifically look at the various age groups. It is simply amazing that there have been no recorded deaths of children less then 10 years old. If you are less than 50 years old, then yes, this is just a worse version of the flu as other people have mentioned. If you are over 50 then yes this can be very serious especially if there are co morbidity factors as has already been mentioned. The press is definitely driving hysteria, but that is what drives their business. The media is not in the business of providing news, but making money.

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old​	​	0.2%​
0-9 years old	​	no fatalities​

I find this mentality morally wrong, it insinuates that young people can go about their business because it wont kill them. However, even if it doesnt kill them it still helps the spread.

Even though I may not die from this I dont want to be the cause of someone's parents or grandparents dying.

 

[Rmauch20]

Just heard on the news that coronavirus is in Wyoming and it jumped a pronghorn!

 

[Hill Difficulty]

According to worldometers.info, todays number is 92,823 reported CV-19 cases.

The site also represents outcomes based on Active and Closed cases. I can't say I understand how historical flu cases are reported against CV, but seems to me that apples to apples would ultimately correspond to closed cases - same reason total snowfall is reported after the storm.

 

[ericF]

I find this mentality morally wrong, it insinuates that young people can go about their business because it wont kill them. However, even if it doesnt kill them it still helps the spread.

Even though I may not die from this I dont want to be the cause of someone's parents or grandparents dying.

What mentality? All I did was present a more realistic view of the data over the 3% number that gets bandied around. It is important to understand the real data in order to understand your risk and the risks of those you love. If you are in a low risk group, you probably don't need to panic, but if you have elderly parents you might want to help get them prepped. Also this isn't really new with the elderly bearing the heaviest burden here.

"In recent years, for example, it’s estimated that between about 70 percent and 85 percent of seasonal flu-related deaths have occurred in people 65 years and older"

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/65over.htm

 

[Yakykgoose]

What mentality? All I did was present a more realistic view of the data over the 3% number that gets bandied around. It is important to understand the real data in order to understand your risk and the risks of those you love. If you are in a low risk group, you probably don't need to panic, but if you have elderly parents you might want to help get them prepped. Also this isn't really new with the elderly bearing the heaviest burden here.

"In recent years, for example, it’s estimated that between about 70 percent and 85 percent of seasonal flu-related deaths have occurred in people 65 years and older"

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/65over.htm

I understand, but this approach would encourage behavior of people who are low risk but can still spread the disease to continue attending functions, grouping together, etc. Which will spread the disease to a larger group of high risk people.

 

[EastMT]

My wife is def in the high risk group. Severe asthma, annual bronchitis problems. I will be avoiding all crowds in the hope that I don’t give it to her. I just read an article by a lady in Hong Kong, the effects on her lungs were pretty significant, if my wife gets this it will be pretty scary based on her experience.

 

[Diesel]

A high percentage of those fatalities are from within China. Hubei Province in particular. One reference noted a HIGH prevalence of smoking within that population. If that holds true you're looking at patients with emphysema and/or chronic bronchitis to some degree. Meaning, that group is high-risk, for respiratory complications, due to pulmonary status. In fact, one reference noted an unusually high death rate among men in the 40's which they attributed to smoking/pulmonary disease within that group. They also noted women in the same age group same population fared better, they may have better genetics, so there's a lot of speculation going around. I'm working right now. If I can track the article down I'll post it.

Point is, there is good data out there but one really has to sift through it. Reminds me of the telephone game when we were kids. He said, she said, etc. Stick to good references and the picture is much more clear (IMHO). Some examples: Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, CDC, WHO.

Just because the Chinese population, more so their social history, puts them at high-risk, doesn't mean we can generalize that data to the masses. The bulk of the fatality sample size is from China. It's a piece of the puzzle no question. However, we can safely conclude those with pulmonary conditions are at a much higher risk than those without.

I don't know what the air quality is in the Hubei province, but air pollution in general in China is horrible and would complicate lung issues regardless. That may affect mortality significantly to smokers and C-19 contractors. Just a thought. We will have better numbers in a couple of weeks.

It is curious that kids appear to be more resistant.

 

[ODB]

The fed slashing rate a half a point is an enigma to me, did they really think we wouldn’t see that as panic sign. A more measured response would have made more sense. WTF are they thinking

Just goes to show that those “in the know” really aren’t. We are living minute by minute when we should be living longer term. Pragmatism...no one remembers that anymore...

 

[elkduds]

Just goes to show that those “in the know” really aren’t. We are living minute by minute when we should be living longer term. Pragmatism...no one remembers that anymore...

It left earlier, holding hands with Leadership. In its place are Knee-Jerks with fire extinguishers.

 

[ODB]

It left earlier, holding hands with Leadership. In its place are Knee-Jerks with fire extinguishers.

And Costco buggies filled high with TP...

 

[Shrek]

The fed slashing rate a half a point is an enigma to me, did they really think we wouldn’t see that as panic sign. A more measured response would have made more sense. WTF are they thinking

The Fed is thinking they’re not going to be blamed for taking weak and inadequate measures if the economy goes into recession. They’d rather need to raise rates to cool inflation than take any blame for a recession. They’re also going to have to expand their intervention in the repo market as banks pull back and hoard cash. Since there’s no trustworthy information out of China they’re operating in the dark. The market will find its way back to positive territory once the fog clears. What I do know is the mortality rate isn’t such that the economy will collapse but it may well send it into a recession. People in China are going back to work no matter how bad it is because they’ll starve otherwise. They can’t stay in their bunker for long. It’s not the plague or anything close. Entire cities disappeared during the Black Plague epidemic.