WEZ hit rates.

[huntnful]

I just passed the shot on this buck.



I didn’t pass the deer, I passed the shot. He was a great buck that I’d have been happy to put my tag on.

824 yards
Head on/quartering right to left wind.
Probably blowing 10-15MPH
10 minutes before dark
I just flat out did not like it at all

This would have been the hit rate, not even considering variable wind direction.


72% chance of missing, or having a total rodeo, just before dark, with a deer a 1/2 mile away in chest high sage. No thank you lol.

 

[wind gypsy]

Love these conversations for those newer to LR shooting who think it's easier than it is because youtube/internet pretends so.

 

[huntnful]

I just passed the shot on this buck.

View attachment 968906

I didn’t pass the deer, I passed the shot. He was a great buck that I’d have been happy to put my tag on.

824 yards
Head on/quartering right to left wind.
Probably blowing 10-15MPH
10 minutes before dark
I just flat out did not like it at all

This would have been the hit rate, not even considering variable wind direction.
View attachment 968908

72% chance of missing, or having a total rodeo, just before dark, with a deer a 1/2 mile away in chest high sage. No thank you lol.

Then the next morning, I found a little better buck by chance, at a much closer distance, with calmer environmentals. No regrets on passing the shot on the first buck.

 

[mlevimadden]

I just passed the shot on this buck.

View attachment 968906

I didn’t pass the deer, I passed the shot. He was a great buck that I’d have been happy to put my tag on.

824 yards
Head on/quartering right to left wind.
Probably blowing 10-15MPH
10 minutes before dark
I just flat out did not like it at all

This would have been the hit rate, not even considering variable wind direction.
View attachment 968908

72% chance of missing, or having a total rodeo, just before dark, with a deer a 1/2 mile away in chest high sage. No thank you lol.

Kudos to you for passing the shot on a great buck. No way I'd feel comfortable taking the shot at that distance in those conditions either at my current skill level.

You can probably estimate the temperature more accurately than +/- 60 deg F though to improve the hit probability unless I am reading your confidence intervals incorrectly.

 

[huntnful]

Kudos to you for passing the shot on a great buck. No way I'd feel comfortable taking the shot at that distance in those conditions either at my current skill level.

You can probably estimate the temperature more accurately than +/- 60 deg F though to improve the hit probability unless I am reading your confidence intervals incorrectly.

Haha holy shit. I never even realized that was a VARIABLE. I thought it was a general entry. My shit it is way out of tune!! Hahaha thank you for pointing that out!

 

[Schmo]

It turns out, that when @huntnful updated the temperature certainty to within 5 degrees, his hit probability went from 28% to 98%, and now he’s crying in his basement about the missed BOAL!


Okay I’m totally kidding

 

[mlevimadden]

Haha holy shit. I never even realized that was a VARIABLE. I thought it was a general entry. My shit it is way out of tune!! Hahaha thank you for pointing that out!

I was hesitant to point it out since I've already shown multiple times in this thread that I'm not smart enough to use the WEZ correctly, but it seemed pretty far off compared to your other inputs.

 

[huntnful]

It turns out, that when @huntnful updated the temperature certainty to within 5 degrees, his hit probability went from 28% to 98%, and now he’s crying in his basement about the missed BOAL!


Okay I’m totally kidding

Lmao . Looks like I now have 100% hit rates out to 1300 yards with 8mph wind variability. Silly me for not shooting that buck .

I was hesitant to point it out since I've already shown multiple times in this thread that I'm not smart enough to use the WEZ correctly, but it seemed pretty far off compared to your other inputs.

I appreciate it!! It did change my hit rate from 28% to 51%. That’s a little better lol.

 

[Schmo]

It did change my hit rate from 28% to 51%. That’s a little better lol.

I was curious how much it would change. That’s a whole lot more than I would have expected.

 

[pathnz]

You will also have *some* drag uncertainty

 

[wind gypsy]

Lmao . Looks like I now have 100% hit rates out to 1300 yards with 8mph wind variability. Silly me for not shooting that buck .


I appreciate it!! It did change my hit rate from 28% to 51%. That’s a little better lol.

Would think that could be more accurately reflected in DA uncertainty than temp?

 

[id_jon]

I was curious how much it would change. That’s a whole lot more than I would have expected.

+/-60°F makes a pretty huge difference on DA lol

 

[Schmo]

+/-60°F makes a pretty huge difference on DA lol

That’s true. I did not think about it in that perspective

 

[Jordan Smith]

Would think that could be more accurately reflected in DA uncertainty than temp?

It would make no difference, as long as the uncertainty is propagated correctly in the app.

 

[Jordan Smith]

I appreciate it!! It did change my hit rate from 28% to 51%. That’s a little better lol.

It may be useful to point out that the AB WEZ model defines standard uncertainty as 2 standard deviations of the distribution. An uncertainty of 60 F in temperature means that for each shot, the simulation uses a random temperature value in the range of -60 F to +60 F, 95% of the time, and it uses temperature values outside that range (following a Gaussian distribution) 5% of the time. So that's an enormous temperature range, from shot to shot, and it's no wonder that it affects POI so drastically.

 

[huntnful]

It may be useful to point out that the AB WEZ model defines standard uncertainty as 2 standard deviations of the distribution. An uncertainty of 60 F in temperature means that for each shot, the simulation uses a random temperature value in the range of -60 F to +60 F, 95% of the time, and it uses temperature values outside that range (following a Gaussian distribution) 5% of the time. So that's an enormous temperature range, from shot to shot, and it's no wonder that it affects POI so drastically.

Hahaha I’ve just been checking worst worst case scenario to be safe…. . Never know when you’re going to come across a 200 degree temperature swing out in the field