WEZ hit rates.

[huntnful]

What direction is the wind for this sim?

Oh good catch! That damn dial is easy to accidentally adjust when you’re on the environmental page. I had rotated it to a 1 o clock wind.

This is a 3 o clock wind

 

[wind gypsy]

I think the probabilities are much less than you think! To me, these inputs do make sense as "effective worst case", which can reasonably equate to +/-2SD. Most people have no idea what a standard deviation is, nor do they track enough data or log it such that they could calculate it. To be clear, you could input more "optimistic" numbers, but the more you do that, the less accurate this hit rate calculator will be.

I agree with @Megalodon - odds seem low and i'm typically in the "people way overestimate their odds" camp.

Not to steal your thread here but anyone figure out how to mix the Units? I need moa elevation but mil windage. Effing dumb I know but mil/moa scopes is what I got for now. And I hold for wind not dial.

What are you asking? Is this in relation to WEZ data input?

 

[TaperPin]

I have a 10X14” rectangle for a broadside elkish sized target.

That’s cool - my first thought was you’re going to need a bigger wider elk, but we know you shoot better than the simulation would lead us to believe.

 

[BBob]

I agree with @Megalodon - odds seem low and i'm typically in the "people way overestimate their odds" camp.



What are you asking? Is this in relation to WEZ data input?

If I’m not mistaken he’s asking about basic gun setup settings. In the new updated AB it doesn’t appear to be able to mix elevation and windage values like it used to do. I haven’t spent too much time with the new AB but maybe there is a way.

Shown are: AB pre update, current AB, Shooter

 

[solarshooter]

Oh good catch! That damn dial is easy to accidentally adjust when you’re on the environmental page. I had rotated it to a 1 o clock wind.

This is a 3 o clock wind
View attachment 852893

I agree with @Megalodon - odds seem low and i'm typically in the "people way overestimate their odds" camp.

47% at 600yds seems about right. Consult the 2024 Coldbore Challenge results for references there. I think these levels of error inputs are reasonable, if a little optimistic for a hunting scenario.

 

[huntnful]

47% at 600yds seems about right. Consult the 2024 Coldbore Challenge results for references there. I think these levels of error inputs are reasonable, if a little optimistic for a hunting scenario.

Here’s the same setup, but for the cold bore challenge size target. 5” radius, which is a 10” diameter circle.

 

[wind gypsy]

47% at 600yds seems about right. Consult the 2024 Coldbore Challenge results for references there. I think these levels of error inputs are reasonable, if a little optimistic for a hunting scenario.

I was more surprised by the sub 30% RSS at 450 yards. Admittedly its been a long time since I've shot my 223 that far though.

 

[B_Reynolds_AK]

I was more surprised by the sub 30% RSS at 450 yards. Admittedly its been a long time since I've shot my 223 that far though.

WEZ and hit rate theory are just that, theory. My hit rates with my RSS 223 out to 600 yards are well above 30%.

 

[wind gypsy]

WEZ and hit rate theory are just that, theory. My hit rates with my RSS 223 out to 600 yards are well above 30%.

First round though? I think most of us are biased on hit rate odds by the fact most targets we engage then get engaged multiple times once we have feedback from prior shots. It's hard to think of first round in wildly different situations off memory and think only of those scenarios for me!

 

[B_Reynolds_AK]

First round though? I think most of us are biased on hit rate odds by the fact most targets we engage then get engaged multiple times once we have feedback from prior shots. It's hard to think of first round in wildly different situations off memory and think only of those scenarios for me!

Yeah, first round hits. Going out regularly this winter with the gun on the snowmachine in the mountains. Diferent areas, weather and shooting positions.

 

[huntnful]

WEZ and hit rate theory are just that, theory. My hit rates with my RSS 223 out to 600 yards are well above 30%.

Yeah it’s also an 8 mph variation of unknown wind as well. I just view it as tool to see what helps what with hit rates. And certainly shed a little light on the truth when there is more unknown variables.

 

[Formidilosus]

I was more surprised by the sub 30% RSS at 450 yards. Admittedly its been a long time since I've shot my 223 that far though.

That’s just due to the variables put in that specific instance. Real hit rates with remotely practiced shooters are well above 70% at 450 yards on 12” targets.

 

[huntnful]

That’s just due to the variables put in that specific instance. Real hit rates with remotely practiced shooters are well above 70% at 450 yards on 12” targets.

So I find a combo of variables that give me a 70% hit rate with the RSS at 450 yards on a 12”x12” target, it’s a decently safe bet to be able to extrapolate other cartridges/bullet out with that input data?

 

[huntnful]

There’s an RSS with decent info and a 12x12 at 450 yards