Updated Wyoming Range Mule Deer Mortality Article - June 13, 2023

[wyobigbuckhunter]

Wyoming Range Winterkill Far Worse Than Thought: 80% Of Adult Deer & Nearly All Fawns Dead

Winterkill losses in the famed Wyoming Range mule deer herd might be far worse than thought with as many as 80% of adult deer and nearly all the fawns dead.

cowboystatedaily.com

I just saw this article a few days ago. Since that time, I have spoken with contacts that live in the Big Piney, Pinedale, and Kemmerer areas. Some of the "boots on the ground" observations are consistent with the severity portrayed and some aren't. I know that it is bad out there and have seen some of the severity first hand, but my thoughts on this article are:

1: This article is written to imply that the whole herd is decimated across the landscape, but from observations from those in the field indicate that it may be "spotty" depending on each specific area that mule deer wintered.
2: Severity to this point has been based on collared deer with a small sample size and may not represent the full population.
(The article does state that "mule deer losses were gauged according to monitoring of deer migrating back to summer range". Does anyone know if this is aerial surveys, or the specifics of how this is was done?)
3: This article may "cherry pick" the worst to sell a story.

To get a broader sample than my small group of contacts, I'm curious as what everyone has seen or is seeing on the winter range and your thoughts based on the accuracy of the information presented in this article.

 

[Wyoguy51]

I wouldn't be surprised if that article is pretty accurate. I spend a ton of time on those winter ranges taking pics and this is by far the worst conditions I can remember seeing in the past 25 -30 years. I usually go all winter..but not this one. I quit going in January because I didn't really want to see what was coming (I knew from previous bad winters) ; dead and dying deer. I also quit going in '16-'17. I thought that winter was bad, but it paled in comparison to '22-'23. According to some data that was sent to me by Gary Fralic, mortality may not have been 80%-only 70%. If that's much consolation.

 

[wyobigbuckhunter]

I wouldn't be surprised if that article is pretty accurate. I spend a ton of time on those winter ranges taking pics and this is by far the worst conditions I can remember seeing in the past 25 -30 years. I usually go all winter..but not this one. I quit going in January because I didn't really want to see what was coming (I knew from previous bad winters) ; dead and dying deer. I also quit going in '16-'17. I thought that winter was bad, but it paled in comparison to '22-'23. According to some data that was sent to me by Gary Fralic, mortality may not have been 80%-only 70%. If that's much consolation.

Thanks for the reply. This is what I was looking for. I must have missed the information provided by Gary. I will keep watching for it.

 

[Wyoguy51]

As of 6/12, according to Gary, 31.5% of collared does are still alive and 37.2 bucks are still alive. I wonder what the .5 and .2 look like? 2 legs? One?? Of course, all the fawns are dead. No mortalities in the previous week prior to 6/12.

 

[Lee_R]

As of 6/12, according to Gary, 31.5% of collared does are still alive and 37.2 bucks are still alive. I wonder what the .5 and .2 look like? 2 legs? One?? Of course, all the fawns are dead. No mortalities in the previous week prior to 6/12.

Do you not know how percentages are calculated or are actually trying to sound stupid?

 

[Wyoguy51]

Enlighten me Einstein.

 

[Wyoguy51]

It was a joke. Apparently way over your head.

 

[wyomingmuleyz]

I seen that this year they seen more fat on these deer than they did in 2017. I'm curious how this will affect the pregnant does? I would have to imagine this year's fawn will be better off than 2017? Also the antler growth on mature deer?

Does anyone know if western wyoming has been getting the rain like eastern wyoming? If so I'd imagine the ones that lived should be looking pretty good now?

 

[Wyoguy51]

Getting a shower every day until yesterday. Sometimes heavy, sometimes light; just depends on where you are, but scattered showers almost every day. Have only watered the lawn maybe 5-6 times and still growing mushrooms haha. Meteorologist claims next 60 days are cooler and wetter than normal but it looks like dry weather now for a bit. Desert is very green and rivers are high.

 

[wyomingmuleyz]

Getting a shower every day until yesterday. Sometimes heavy, sometimes light; just depends on where you are, but scattered showers almost every day. Have only watered the lawn maybe 5-6 times and still growing mushrooms haha. Meteorologist claims next 60 days are cooler and wetter than normal but it looks like dry weather now for a bit. Desert is very green and rivers are high.

Sounds like the best outcome of a spring/early summer we could ask for for what the winter slapped us with. Thanks for the update.

 

[nnmarcher]

Wow, 70-80% is crazy to think about. How long does a population take to recover from such a loss? 5-10 years? I'm sure there are a lot of factors like tags issued and future winter severity, but I'm wondering if there is a figure like "an average, healthy population can grow X% a year."

 

[HiMtnHntr]

Lots of variables, such as food production on summer and winter ground and the amount of summer and winter ground. That area has expansive range (albeit not nearly as much as there used to be) and the moisture we’ve received should translate to healthy rebound of the deer that survived. Then it’s a waiting game to see if Mother Nature will cooperate for the next several years. It’s going to take a little bit of a miracle to bring it back like it was…

 

[wyomingmuleyz]

I'm not too sure about the whole CWD deal but a biologist told me this winter may have been mother nature taking care of it. The sick deer died and there's not enough deer for it to travel around? Idk a thought.

 

[Fetty Wapiti]

I'm not too sure about the whole CWD deal but a biologist told me this winter may have been mother nature taking care of it. The sick deer died and there's not enough deer for it to travel around? Idk a thought.

Even if that was a possibility, the prions would still be on the landscape.

 

[wyomingmuleyz]

Correct but with the amount of deer left he said the chances of it spreading is very limited.
I seen alot of reports showing no where near 80% I seen more like 50/60% and 90% of fawns. But it looked like the deer that lived were looking good from fat content. I'm curious where the data actually whow 80% dead?

 

[mxgust]

Wow, 70-80% is crazy to think about. How long does a population take to recover from such a loss? 5-10 years? I'm sure there are a lot of factors like tags issued and future winter severity, but I'm wondering if there is a figure like "an average, healthy population can grow X% a year."

I saw a figure of around 20% growth per year for this. Can’t remember exactly where though, one of those articles about winter kill think

 

[amaxjack]

I saw a figure of around 20% growth per year for this. Can’t remember exactly where though, one of those articles about winter kill think

I agree with the cherry picked results. I have been talking to my landowner, and he is not seeing that in his area. He did lose a cow this winter, but his found no their antelope or mule deer so far the spring.
Jack

 

[wyomingmuleyz]

I have multiple friends who shed hunted all over the winter range. Mesa, middle piney, calpet, north piney, etc. I believe 1 friend did 26 miles in 2 days and only found 1 dead mule deer. Another did 14 miles and found 2 dead muke deer. The extreme death must have been very area specific. Anyone have any map areas where the numbers were outstanding?

 

[mxgust]

I have multiple friends who shed hunted all over the winter range. Mesa, middle piney, calpet, north piney, etc. I believe 1 friend did 26 miles in 2 days and only found 1 dead mule deer. Another did 14 miles and found 2 dead muke deer. The extreme death must have been very area specific. Anyone have any map areas where the numbers were outstanding?

I think the numbers are coming from the collared deer. Mostly the montieth project from the sounds of it, but I don’t know which exact area that is in

 

[mxgust]

I agree with the cherry picked results. I have been talking to my landowner, and he is not seeing that in his area. He did lose a cow this winter, but his found no their antelope or mule deer so far the spring.
Jack

Do you mean he didn’t have any dead deer or antelope? Sorry I had meant that’s how much growth a herd can experience year to year. I read that in one article, I’m not sure if it’s accurate