Truth behind MT Draw Odds

[Legend]

As most know MT has a bonus point system that squares the points each individual holds. If you dig deep enough you can find the excel file on the FWP website with the detailed data on how many points each individual held. So, for an example I pulled the data for hunting unit 380-20 which has a total of 135 bull tags. First, you need to remove 15% of the tags for the landowners so now we have 115 tags for the general public. (As a side note unsuccessful landowners are entered back into the drawing a second time). Next we do the math for the squared bonus points and in 2020 there was a total of 417,515 resident applications. This means that the resident draw odds for a single application, no points, is 0.0275%. If you have say 15 points your chance of drawing this permit would be 0.0275% run 15 times over.

As for nonresidents you only have access to 10% of the tags or in this case 14 tags. And the squared math shows 11,514 applications. Which means with no bonus points your odds are 0.1216%.

So the moral of the story is squaring bonus points means there are a lot of applications and if you don't have points your chances are dismal....but there is a chance. Oh and we can forget about youth drawing these tags....ever.

 

[slick]

Yup. That would be a bonus point system.


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[Riplip]

Yep not perfect, but I still prefer this over a true preference point system like CO.

 

[cgasner1]

Ya but you do hear about 12 year olds rating tags here when was the last time a 12 year old got a Arizona strip tag?


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[87TT]

Points system period suck.

 

[Legend]

Ya but you do hear about 12 year olds rating tags here when was the last time a 12 year old got a Arizona strip tag?


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I filled out my kids hunting applications this week and I have to be honest with them....you don't stand a chance.

Point systems are the end of hunting for the average Joe. You can sink thousands into the process. Better off playing state lottery.

 

[cgasner1]

It really sucks that they just got rid of the ability to buy our kids points had that been into effect your kid could have had points to draw a good tag being younger and maybe that tag would have been the difference if they stick with this or not


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[Indian Summer]

I’m not a fan of the Montana system. I like the way things work in Wyoming. People who have been in the game longer should have preference not bonus chances. But the availability of set aside tags in the random drawings gives everyone including the zero point holders a chance to hunt. Nothing is perfect but that isn’t bad.

 

[Str8shtr]

Montana doesn't guarantee non-residents 10% of the tags. Only up to 10% of the draw tags can go to non-res. Odds for non-res will always be equal to or less than resident.

 

[realunlucky]

I’m not a fan of the Montana system. I like the way things work in Wyoming. People who have been in the game longer should have preference not bonus chances. But the availability of set aside tags in the random drawings gives everyone including the zero point holders a chance to hunt. Nothing is perfect but that isn’t bad.

I hate they allow point sharing in Wyoming kinda defeats the whole preference system by allowing those who don't wait to skip ahead of those who do.
Guess each system has pluses and minuses.

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[Str8shtr]

In the case of 380 the odds for non-res vs res are the same.

 

[Legend]

Montana doesn't guarantee non-residents 10% of the tags. Only up to 10% of the draw tags can go to non-res. Odds for non-res will always be equal to or less than resident.

Yep they get up to 10%. So the number I posted above is best case for non residents as it gets worse from there.

 

[Legend]

In the case of 380 the odds for non-res vs res are the same.

That is not what the data shows.

 

[Str8shtr]

That is not what the data shows.

They basically draw names from the same pool and if your name comes up and if the non-resident allowance of 10% hasn't been exceeded you get a tag. In the case of 380 they don't get to the 10% limit because so many more residents apply.... so the odds for a resident are the same as a non-resident.

 

[Legend]

They basically draw names from the same pool and if your name comes up and if the non-resident allowance of 10% hasn't been exceeded you get a tag. In the case of 380 they don't get to the 10% limit because so many more residents apply.... so the odds for a resident are the same as a non-resident.

Thanks for sharing your approach. I agree, since it is rare to nonexistent, for nonresidents to pull 10%.

 

[OMB]

It really sucks that they just got rid of the ability to buy our kids points had that been into effect your kid could have had points to draw a good tag being younger and maybe that tag would have been the difference if they stick with this or not


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with the amount of opportunity that's out there, if a kid isn't into hunting without drawing a good unit, they're probably not going to be that into anyways, and there are few, if any, 12 year olds capable of appreciating it. I've seen this with the early youth muzzleloader season in Iowa where a 6 year old goes out and pounds a 150" whitetail off an ag field dad has scouted all summer. I think we're getting to the point on some of these youth hunts where it's less about youth participation and more about dad living vicariously through their kid (much like youth team sports.)

 

[insanelupus]

Wish MT would just go to a straight draw.

 

[Deadfall]

with the amount of opportunity that's out there, if a kid isn't into hunting without drawing a good unit, they're probably not going to be that into anyways, and there are few, if any, 12 year olds capable of appreciating it. I've seen this with the early youth muzzleloader season in Iowa where a 6 year old goes out and pounds a 150" whitetail off an ag field dad has scouted all summer. I think we're getting to the point on some of these youth hunts where it's less about youth participation and more about dad living vicariously through their kid (much like youth team sports.)

Amen

 

[Legend]

with the amount of opportunity that's out there, if a kid isn't into hunting without drawing a good unit, they're probably not going to be that into anyways, and there are few, if any, 12 year olds capable of appreciating it. I've seen this with the early youth muzzleloader season in Iowa where a 6 year old goes out and pounds a 150" whitetail off an ag field dad has scouted all summer. I think we're getting to the point on some of these youth hunts where it's less about youth participation and more about dad living vicariously through their kid (much like youth team sports.)

I have to disagree. I am not saying that the 12 year old needs to draw the tag. I am saying my child stands almost no chance at EVER drawing a tag until every other applicant stops applying (draws, stops applying, dies, etc.).

Bonus point system do not work unless the top tier is drawn and replaced close to every year. It is just simple math.

 

[cgasner1]

How is it any different than guys that put the wife in and she doesn’t hunt guy I work with does it every year couple years ago she had one of the best bull tags in the state and never stepped foot in the unit. I have a buck in my shop I shot on a youth tag when I was a kid I still appreciate the opportunity I was given for that hunt just because the kid gets points doesn’t mean anything still have to draw the tag


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