Transporter Moose Hunt Success Rates

[HornPorn]

With the Transporter/Drop Camp moose hunts in Alaska, what is a fair expectation for a group as far as success assuming everyone can shoot and is in good shape? If 4 hunters go, is 2 people tagging out a fair expectation? What is realistic?

I realize that processing a moose halts hunting for everyone else for at least a day.

 

[mobilefamily]

I think 4 is way too many on a drop hunt. If 2 go with a reputable provider, I think 50% success is a reasonable expectation if you hunt smart and hard.

Animal densities are such that 4 moose from one spot is a tough ask. Remember that you have to carry the damned things back to base. So you can't really split up and go far to hunt a bigger area with more people. Plus, when you leave camp you're stinking things up and spooking animals. And the wind direction will always play into where you can even go, if you choose to go somewhere.

 

[Robinhood21]

I would agree that 4 people in 1 camp is probably too many. I guess it depends on what your expectations are for the trip. If you'd like to all tag out then I don't think that's very realistic. I think going in groups of 2 is the way to go. My transporter says they average about 1 bull per camp. He's had a group of 4 not shoot a bull or even see a shooter but he's also had a groups of 3 all tag out. It depends on the spot you pick out and your capabilities as a hunter. A group of 4 people would be a lot of fun but everyone would have to have realistic expectations going in.

 

[Panhandler80]

Having only been once I don’t even want to imagine 4 in a camp without even considering success rates. That’s minimum of two flights in, increased odds of lost baggage, increased quantity of thoughts / desires / opinions. Basically just that many more people to coordinate. Seems like bit of a headache.

Also We had two and I constantly felt like our impact on surroundings was putting us at a disadvantage from a hunting perspective. I think 4 would drive me insane mentally… but that’s just me. I get a little OCD over the things I can control. I think it helps me let go and tolerate that which I can’t.

Would be nice for hauling meat, though!

 

[Kevin Dill]

The word 'expectation' is a trap. If it's going to be used, 'expectation' should apply to legal moose seen along with potential opportunities to kill. When you go in expecting a (example) 50% kill rate you're applying numbers taken from a much larger sampling and averaged together. 4 guys might kill 3 moose in a superb area (though unlikely) while 2 guys might kill zip in another...leading to a 50% figure. But is it accurate?

I would look at this from a statistical perspective only. How many guys did a given transporter haul over a 3 year period? How many moose were taken in the same period? If it works out to 50% I would NOT expect that to apply in my camp....only across the board as an average.

I'm not sure this will make sense: If you took 100 coins and tossed them en masse, the law of averages says about 50% will land heads up. That doesn't mean they'll be evenly distributed. One toss might yield only a 35% result. Your camp might strike out while the overall success averages 60% or more. That's the reality of this. 4 guys going into a camp are collectively spending around $30k or more all-in on what amounts to a coin toss. And they're probably lowering their odds by doing so if each of them hopes to kill a moose in one area.

 

[HornPorn]

Ok, let's not get hung up on 4 then. Let's assume two hunters. It sounds like 1 moose is a realistic goal.

How do people figure out who gets the bull, draw straws? Or do folks typically split up?

I would hate for the hunter who didn't tag out to feel like they were just along to be a packer, whether that be me or the other guy.

Guess this is something you have to ask yourself.....am I going for the experience or the kill.

 

[Panhandler80]

The word 'expectation' is a trap. If it's going to be used, 'expectation' should apply to legal moose seen along with potential opportunities to kill. When you go in expecting a (example) 50% kill rate you're applying numbers taken from a much larger sampling and averaged together. 4 guys might kill 3 moose in a superb area (though unlikely) while 2 guys might kill zip in another...leading to a 50% figure. But is it accurate?

I would look at this from a statistical perspective only. How many guys did a given transporter haul over a 3 year period? How many moose were taken in the same period? If it works out to 50% I would NOT expect that to apply in my camp....only across the board as an average.

I'm not sure this will make sense: If you took 100 coins and tossed them en masse, the law of averages says about 50% will land heads up. That doesn't mean they'll be evenly distributed. One toss might yield only a 35% result. Your camp might strike out while the overall success averages 60% or more. That's the reality of this. 4 guys going into a camp are collectively spending around $30k or more all-in on what amounts to a coin toss. And they're probably lowering their odds by doing so if each of them hopes to kill a moose in one area.

I’d go with 2 folks and would want to know how many camps harvested at least 1. I wouldn’t double dip camps with multiple bulls.

10 camps.
3 killed 1
1 killed 4.

I’d look at that as 40% chance to harvest.

 

[Panhandler80]

Ok, let's not get hung up on 4 then. Let's assume two hunters. It sounds like 1 moose is a realistic goal.

How do people figure out who gets the bull, draw straws? Or do folks typically split up?

I would hate for the hunter who didn't tag out to feel like they were just along to be a packer, whether that be me or the other guy.

Guess this is something you have to ask yourself.....am I going for the experience or the kill.

Any number of ways to skin that cat and it’s all up to you.

One thing to consider is who is most likely to go back. If one knows he’s not, then maybe he gets to go first. Or draw straws. Or one May not give a damn about pulling trigger. Or maybe “packer” gets trophy… or meat. Any number of ways to haven’ handle that, but again…. That’s entirely up to you, obviously.

 

[Kevin Dill]

2 guys in camp. Coin toss for who gets the first shot or opportunity, and then alternate from there. If you decide to split up, no issue there.

If someone kills and both work at butchering/packing, the 'other' hunter has automatic right to 50% of the meat if wanted. If the other hunter does take meat they are then responsible for sharing the costs of flying out the meat, assuming the company charges extra for that service.

Both guys should be hunting hard and understanding their money was spent for the opportunity to be where they are and doing what they are...in other words, the adventure. If both hunters do this and focus strongly on having a tremendous adventure together, the trip will be a success even if no moose is killed.

Think of any moose taken as 'ours'....it's a team effort. One down means huge extra success. Revel in it. Then keep hunting and see if #2 happens.

 

[Mykolaivka887]

Figure on one-in-four, based on the statewide data. I agree with Kevin Dill, in the fact that kill percentages are very misleading.

One thing to keep in mind is that for every successful DIY Alaska moose hunt that you read about on internet forums or see on YouTube, there's dozens of unsuccessful hunts that you don't hear about.

Statistically, according to the available data, kill percentage on moose - resident and nonresident combined - is 10%. However, data indicates that the statewide nonresident DIY kill rate is between 25% and 30% (historically).

So, if only looking at data and not considering any other aspect of DIY nonresident opportunity (access, hunter effort, game population dynamics, etc) you can expect a kill rate of about one-in-four.

 

[Robinhood21]

Both guys should be hunting hard and understanding their money was spent for the opportunity to be where they are and doing what they are...in other words, the adventure. If both hunters do this and focus strongly on having a tremendous adventure together, the trip will be a success even if no moose is killed.

Think of any moose taken as 'ours'....it's a team effort. One down means huge extra success. Revel in it. Then keep hunting and see if #2 happens.

Perfectly said Kevin!

2 years ago we drew straws. I drew the short straw and even though I planned the whole trip from logistics to telling each guy what to buy, when to buy etc, I was the one who went home empty handed. You would think I was upset but that couldn't be any further from the truth. At the beginning of my hunt planning, my focus was on, "got to shoot la bull". By the time we left for the trip, my focus was on the journey and experience. It was literally the best time of my life and I came home empty handed.

The adventure in itself was indescribable to those who have never been and to be there when my uncle and father shot their bulls was quite the experience.

 

[roymunson]

I think the trouble probably comes when a lot of hunters, even friends, turn selfish in the woods. I've seen it and heard of it. If you'd go at it as explained above, as a team, you'll get more out of it. Who says you can't go on more than 1 once in a lifetime hunt?

 

[HuntHarder]

I was told 50/50 on chances of both my partner and I shooting a Moose. Ended up, I shot one and he did not. We almost got his but needed 1 more day. We chose to flip quarter for first day, then alternated each day on who was the shooter. Of course variables happen, but common sense and courtesy should be followed.

 

[280rem]

I would personally go into it figuring you have a 20-30% of getting a moose and then NOT multiply that number by how many hunters in camp. If 4 people want to hunt together and want better odds of filling tags then a caribou hunt would fit that equation way way better than a moose hunt. Learning all you can about moose behavior and calling, making sure your going to a good area or using a good transporter are things to hedge odds more favorably. Deciding who is first shooter could be arrived at by many fair tactics. I agree if meat is going to be split evenly then extra costs of getting meat transported out and home need to be split accordingly and not be only responsible by the trigger puller.

 

[Kevin Dill]

There are so many variables at work in terms of potential success rates, odds of kill, or averages....it's basically useless to think your hunt will follow the averages or odds.

GMU - Weather - Predators - Hunting pressure - Winter kill - Hunter experience - Rut timing - Moose numbers

All of these can (and often do) affect whether any camp kills a bull or bulls. In any event, your personal odds of killing a moose are statistically far below 50% according to the state's harvest records. In 2021 a total of 17,800 general season hunters killed 3648 bulls for a 20% success rate statewide.

Be careful of off-the-cuff success rates statements which aren't backed up with data. Period.

In a stationary camp: I think 2 hunters are the optimum number if each person truly wants to kill a bull. More hunters mean more scent, noise and likelihood of burning out the core area...not to mention it's just really bucking the proven odds to think 3 or 4 guys would fill tags in an area that small.

 

[Chirogrow]

I'll echo what others have said. I've been on 2 DIY hunts and am 0-2. The first time was awesome and we had opportunities and my buddy and I just got too rattled and blew our chances. After many PM's on this site the best advice i've received is to go into a trip with no expectations other than having the adventure of a life time. If you are successful, great. If not you'll still have the trip of a lifetime. Don't let anyone control your emotions other than you. (thanks doc for the advise!)

 

[casey.sonora]

Ive done two transported moose hunts (2 guys). 2 moose and a caribou. The first was an early 8/25-9/7. The transporter had choosen an area that had mostly glassing and due time of season. I was the shooter. Who ever glasses it up get the choice to shoot or pass. Unit was a bone out and pack was 1.7miles over mostly hard open ground (12 loads). When the moose hits the ground nothing other than getting that meat taken care of and back to the location for pickup matters. We did not see our camp for two days. Up for 40hrs as we shot the bull at dusk and processed over night then packed loads the following day. After we got that bull out a storm came and blew for four days. Ran out of time after that.

Second was 9/7-9/20. In an area that was a combo of glassing and calling…..stayed 8 days with only a spike fork in the area. Our transporter knowing from the prior hunt that we work hard and hunt, moved us to a location along a river. We were now in a bone in unit. With the dates later we got in to a rut pit with two bulls and three cows. My hunting partner was first shooter this trip. One legal, one just under the 50” mark. Pack was only about a half mile to a gravel bar. I shot a caribou that was too perfect to pass up, since we were low on time at this point.

Im now going to be using air taxis as I learned what moose habitat looks like. And now want to have more control over the the location. Not knowing where exactly you are going makes packing a guessing game. From needing waders to not having wood to burn….can be interesting when only allowed 65lbs. The confidence those trips gave me now makes me want to do more adventurous ones like a moose float and backpack caribou.

When I started lurking on rokslide planning in 2018 the threads did not have the details many now do. Some of the fellas I gleaned knowledge from are on this thread.

My top take aways:

Attitude. You wont fill your tag unless you are willing to do what it takes. Just like in the lower 48 you only get out what you put in.

Field judging. This cant be understated! Three or fifty and or four and fifty takes a developed eye. I look at a pics on online all the time using the eye to eye scale. I even made a small ruler to use in the field when I can take a pic with the spotter.

Gear. Unlike the lower 48…you cant leave when or if you want. The total of my two trips of 22 days. Ive seen 4 with out rain. The last trip we were in rain gear the entire time.

Logistics. The meat out of the field is one thing then its a whole process back in town. I can give some tips if anyone is interested.

A (good) transporter is the what I would recommend for a first timer to AK. If you don't think more trips in the future are an option then its money well spent. Even with a good transporter its all on you to make it successful or not.