@satchamo thanks for this feedback. And yes all draw odds are off the 2024 data, the 2025 AZ draw just took place and most of the rest of the western 2025 draws have not happened yet. This is a common misconception. We can't publish the current year's draw data until after the current year's draws have occurred. Since the current year's draw has not happened yet, the draw odds data we collect and analyze are from the past year's hunting application season. The best way to research for current year applications is by using data from the previous year's draws and analyzing trends from that data. This tool, and most or all draw odds tools out there that I know about are not predictive tools telling users what the odds will be, but instead showing users what the exact odds were at the time of the last draw, so assuming nothing major has changed in terms of the number of applicants or number of tags in the quota, the data is as accurate as possible to help users determine their application strategy.
Also, you may notice our odds are not always the exact same as other tools or even the state PDFs. To get the most accurate results possible, we don't simply scrape and copy state PDFs like some tools out there, we simulate each state's draw using programs we created that mirror state procedures. Our simulations use the entire applicant database from the states, including hunt choice order and group application information where applicable. Every state has unique drawing procedures. When calculating the true odds one must consider point systems, applicant pools, capped species quotas, hunt choice orders, and how each application is evaluated before moving on. This quickly becomes extremely difficult or impossible to do with simple math, and we do it this way because the state draw is limited to a single simulation of the draw, we do thousands of simulations for each state to get the most accurate way a draw could shake out rather than just a single instance of how the draw did shake out. Statistically, this is the most accurate way to run these odds.
We have heard the feedback for additional filters as well, and we're getting to those, thank you for mentioning this, we know it's something many users are wanting.
@Extrapale, thanks again for your feedback as well. We break out hunts to different opportunities when hunt codes are good for multiple units because we do have some data that's unit-specific, which is why, at times, you see so many lines for a single hunt code. Some states report harvest rate by unit, and we have land metrics based on unit, so even though a tag has one code, hunters can still use this tool to help decide which unit within that tag (if there are multiple units) they want to hunt in. That was our goal, but we may have to consider consolidating those hunt opportunities and presenting this data in a different way since you are not the first to mention this as a frustration.
Again thank you all for this feedback, and please feel free to reach out directly if you have any additional needs. I want you to know we are listening, and this will get better because of this feedback.
Thanks again.
Paul Ronto (
[email protected]) - onX Hunt Product Manager
