Thousands of acres of crop land getting turned into solar farms across the Midwest

[Superdoo]

Started watching "The Last of Us" on HBO. I really like zombie flicks.
I have noticed that literally every recent end of times movie/ show only has people fighting over fossil fuel technology.
You'd think that even in a make believe apocalypse they could find a way to make solar and wind work...

The absolute truth is that an increase in poverty (energy poverty) is a great way to control the masses.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

I would have to check the company name. Plenty of dessert to put those on

Deserts are needed as well. Building the amount of wind and solar infrastructure that this country needs currently will take up a landmass somewhere between the size of Arizona and Texas, and our population and energy needs are not diminishing. Replacing farmland isn’t the answer, replacing open wild lands isn’t the answer. Solar panels over parking lots and on commercial/residential buildings probably isn’t the answer either but at least it’s a start


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[Hnthrdr]

Let’s build some reactors already instead of throwing wind or solar everywhere… that is where the real energy is

 

[Trackerbacker]

I want to see the math too. Dude keeps saying it but hasn’t substantiated it yet.

It’s been awhile but the last time I did the math, it didn’t pencil out.

Maybe he means owning a solar company outperforms other public companies on s&p.

Am I too late to invest in solyndra?

 

[Ishisube]

The absolute truth is that an increase in poverty (energy poverty) is a great way to control the masses.

With the Cloward Piven Strategy the only people not in poverty will be the ones being paid for their allegiance and votes.

 

[drdrop]

show the math


Have you had them installed yet?

I have only recently realized that this makes financial sense, so still need to install a system. My plan is a DIY install. Here are the key factors:

1. Grid tie system, no batteries. Essentially a mini solar power plant on your roof.
2. 3kW system in my area yields about 4600 kWh per https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/
3. Assume average energy prices for my area based on https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm
4. Assume a 3kW system materials costs $6000, and maybe another $1000 for added costs (permits, electrician inspection, etc.). I bet this could get lower if one spends time shopping around.
5. Assume electricity rates increase 2% each year (I'm uncertain on this one).
   Assume S&P 500 grows 7% each year (also uncertain)
   KEY ASSUMPTION - for an apples-to-apples comparison, any savings not spent on electricity gets invested in the stock market. Treat this like a business, not a pass for increasing consumerism once the system gets paid off.
6. Each state has different regulations on power production. Some might only reimburse what you generate, others may buy back your excess. It depends.

Results: With the 30% tax credit through 2032, and the above listed assumptions for a DIYer, it would take me about 7 years to pay off the initial investment. The plot below shows 'Invested Savings' meaning what is not spent on electricity gets invested and grows at the same rate as the stock market. Anything after 20 years yields better returns in my situation (and assumptions). They say panels are generally warrantied for 25 years, but should last longer.

This is just a base cost for minimal usage. Say I add more panels, I could sell that back into the grid and get better long term returns. This doesn't consider the externalities. How do we put a price on preventing a solar farm in winter wildlife range?


SolarDIY reddit wiki page has some good resources to consider: https://www.reddit.com/r/SolarDIY/wiki/index/

Turns out I can't upload spreadsheets, but plopping in a pdf of the sheet.

 

[Mule3006Elk]

Ugly AF IMO. I have seen them.
Interesting to know how much reflective heat those panels give off when compared to heat absorbing land.

 

[CorbLand]

I have only recently realized that this makes financial sense, so still need to install a system. My plan is a DIY install. Here are the key factors:

1. Grid tie system, no batteries. Essentially a mini solar power plant on your roof.
2. 3kW system in my area yields about 4600 kWh per https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/
3. Assume average energy prices for my area based on https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm
4. Assume a 3kW system materials costs $6000, and maybe another $1000 for added costs (permits, electrician inspection, etc.). I bet this could get lower if one spends time shopping around.
5. Assume electricity rates increase 2% each year (I'm uncertain on this one).
   Assume S&P 500 grows 7% each year (also uncertain)
   KEY ASSUMPTION - for an apples-to-apples comparison, any savings not spent on electricity gets invested in the stock market. Treat this like a business, not a pass for increasing consumerism once the system gets paid off.
6. Each state has different regulations on power production. Some might only reimburse what you generate, others may buy back your excess. It depends.

Results: With the 30% tax credit through 2032, and the above listed assumptions for a DIYer, it would take me about 7 years to pay off the initial investment. The plot below shows 'Invested Savings' meaning what is not spent on electricity gets invested and grows at the same rate as the stock market. Anything after 20 years yields better returns in my situation (and assumptions). They say panels are generally warrantied for 25 years, but should last longer.

This is just a base cost for minimal usage. Say I add more panels, I could sell that back into the grid and get better long term returns. This doesn't consider the externalities. How do we put a price on preventing a solar farm in winter wildlife range?


SolarDIY reddit wiki page has some good resources to consider: https://www.reddit.com/r/SolarDIY/wiki/index/

Turns out I can't upload spreadsheets, but plopping in a pdf of the sheet.
View attachment 541610

Something seems off. I show that if you invested 7000 at 7 percent for 20 years, you would have ~27000 and for 30 years ~53000.

You also need to factor for maintenance. Panels give out and get broke in storms. Batteries need replaced. They don’t last forever and generally insurance doesn’t cover them.

 

[drdrop]

Something seems off. I show that if you invested 7000 at 7 percent for 20 years, you would have ~27000 and for 30 years ~53000.

You also need to factor for maintenance. Panels give out and get broke in storms. Batteries need replaced. They don’t last forever and generally insurance doesn’t cover them.

Correct - that's without the 30% rebate, which comes out really close to matching S&P 500 returns. The plot above (and attached spreadsheet printout) accounts for the 30% rebate, which is not a theoretical situation.

Yes, these are back-of-the-envelope calculations. There are many assumptions, from the cost of panels/maintenance to the cost of electricity. I went off of averages in the provided links in the attachment. From what I've read, seems like panels will be warrantied for 25 years. I will refine this as I get further along the process.

Per permitting regs, I need to get a quote from an installer. I'm sure paying someone else will make this less enticing relative to the stock market. But I'm down for taking a weekend or two to build this myself.

 

[CorbLand]

Correct - that's without the 30% rebate, which comes out really close to matching S&P 500 returns. The plot above (and attached spreadsheet printout) accounts for the 30% rebate, which is not a theoretical situation.

Yes, these are back-of-the-envelope calculations. There are many assumptions, from the cost of panels/maintenance to the cost of electricity. I went off of averages in the provided links in the attachment. From what I've read, seems like panels will be warrantied for 25 years. I will refine this as I get further along the process.

Per permitting regs, I need to get a quote from an installer. I'm sure paying someone else will make this less enticing relative to the stock market. But I'm down for taking a weekend or two to build this myself.

I would be curious to see what you come up with when you have “hard” numbers. The last time I looked into them, also very “back of the envelope” it was over double what you have for an initial cost.

 

[Dos Perros]

@drdrop as others have mentioned you're not including maintenance costs, reduction in output with age, and margin to cover either insurance costs or repairs in the event of a storm.

Also, you can't just sell your panels and recover your investment like you could at any time with the S&P 500, so there is an undocumented opportunity cost (I get your graph is limited to invested savings only).

I like panels, I would have them on my roof if I thought it made sense--currently looking into it. I'd probably run the shit out of my A/C if I had them, which sort of defeats the purpose I guess. We have acres and acres of giant warehouses being built in my metro right now...IMO they should all look into putting panels on the roofs.

 

[Basecamphunt]

I have only recently realized that this makes financial sense, so still need to install a system. My plan is a DIY install. Here are the key factors:

1. Grid tie system, no batteries. Essentially a mini solar power plant on your roof.
2. 3kW system in my area yields about 4600 kWh per https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/
3. Assume average energy prices for my area based on https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm
4. Assume a 3kW system materials costs $6000, and maybe another $1000 for added costs (permits, electrician inspection, etc.). I bet this could get lower if one spends time shopping around.
5. Assume electricity rates increase 2% each year (I'm uncertain on this one).
   Assume S&P 500 grows 7% each year (also uncertain)
   KEY ASSUMPTION - for an apples-to-apples comparison, any savings not spent on electricity gets invested in the stock market. Treat this like a business, not a pass for increasing consumerism once the system gets paid off.
6. Each state has different regulations on power production. Some might only reimburse what you generate, others may buy back your excess. It depends.

Results: With the 30% tax credit through 2032, and the above listed assumptions for a DIYer, it would take me about 7 years to pay off the initial investment. The plot below shows 'Invested Savings' meaning what is not spent on electricity gets invested and grows at the same rate as the stock market. Anything after 20 years yields better returns in my situation (and assumptions). They say panels are generally warrantied for 25 years, but should last longer.

This is just a base cost for minimal usage. Say I add more panels, I could sell that back into the grid and get better long term returns. This doesn't consider the externalities. How do we put a price on preventing a solar farm in winter wildlife range?


SolarDIY reddit wiki page has some good resources to consider: https://www.reddit.com/r/SolarDIY/wiki/index/

Turns out I can't upload spreadsheets, but plopping in a pdf of the sheet.
View attachment 541610

I’ve heard utilities won’t buy back all extra power you generate and the buy back rates can change (often for the worse).

 

[bentarrow]

Need to take their shiny panels to the big city cesspools and hang um on the sides of the tall buildins. Won't eat up good land and ruin r great outdoors. FJG and the dems.

 

[MattB]

I want to see the math too. Dude keeps saying it but hasn’t substantiated it yet.

It’s been awhile but the last time I did the math, it didn’t pencil out.

Whether it pencils is generally tied to state and federal subsidies/tax credits. There is no “one size fits all” answer and math that works in another state may not work in yours.

 

[Superdoo]

I’ve heard utilities won’t buy back all extra power you generate and the buy back rates can change (often for the worse).

This is very true. Because of the subsidies that are afforded to the producers (ie. the power companies) you will see megawatt price fluctuations that end up showing a negative price per megawatt during peak solar and wind times. Peak solar and wind generating events typically arrive during low energy demand periods (more true for wind than solar).
The producers are subsidized at a rate of 20% per megawatt generated by the government. This means that they can sell electrons for 15% less than the actual cost they incurred to generate said electrons and still make 5% in profit. Couple the above with the fact that renewables also have right of way on the grid and you get massive fluctuations in megawatt pricing.
Your DIY house panels don't make you a producer, so you will not be afforded the luxuries above. Your provider
Essentially, when renewables are on line, all other sources are idling and losing money. When demand peaks and renewables aren't able to generate because of weather, the other producers make a killing because they have to come in and save the day.

 

[drdrop]

This is very true. Because of the subsidies that are afforded to the producers (ie. the power companies) you will see megawatt price fluctuations that end up showing a negative price per megawatt during peak solar and wind times. Peak solar and wind generating events typically arrive during low energy demand periods (more true for wind than solar).
The producers are subsidized at a rate of 20% per megawatt generated by the government. This means that they can sell electrons for 15% less than the actual cost they incurred to generate said electrons and still make 5% in profit. Couple the above with the fact that renewables also have right of way on the grid and you get massive fluctuations in megawatt pricing.
Your DIY house panels don't make you a producer, so you will not be afforded the luxuries above. Your provider
Essentially, when renewables are on line, all other sources are idling and losing money. When demand peaks and renewables aren't able to generate because of weather, the other producers make a killing because they have to come in and save the day.

I'm appreciating all these great points and building up a list of questions to ask when I do the required 'get a professional quote' step for the permit. My understanding is buyback regulations by state, and perhaps even locality. Wyoming has a law that requires electric companies to buy back home solar at retail rates.

The whole energy system in the US is a dynamic landscape, and I think we can all agree that 20 years from now won't look like 20 years ago. I assume what that means for the end user is greater uncertainty in your power costs in the future. Could be higher, or maybe things get cheaper but more variable.

As a casual news reader, a couple things I'm aware of in WY that are "different": Pumped solar projects, essentially a hydropower battery for surplus renewables: https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/0...reservoir-will-supply-900-megawatts-of-power/

And the next-generation nuclear power, Natrium reactors, which will someday be built in Kemmerer: https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/...lant-in-kemmerer-will-be-delayed-by-two-years

 

[Okhotnik]

Not to be that guy but coal mines and oil refineries aren't exactly great for hunting or wildlife either.

I totally agree that it sucks, but people want cars and electricity and everything else and that requires some kind of energy to be harvested. That is never a zero impact operation.

I agree with the poster who said nuclear is the best overall option, but that has flaws too.

Biggest thing you can do is reduce your energy consumption and get others to do the same.

Like not hunting out of state or vacationing out of state. That seems to be the most reasonable option. But the super rich and the How dare you Greta's of the world still fly on their jets or sail on their super yachts to deadly global warming conferences.

Like the Chinese wind mills- how many years do they last n the elements with temps above 100, hail storms, tornadoes, thunder storms, ice and snow? Who pays to remove them and where does the scrap go? Betting there is a huge overall carbon foot print in these green energy scams just like the EV's that rely on black children in Africa working as slaves to retrieve the metals needed for the magical batteries

clown world

 

[Trackerbacker]

I have only recently realized that this makes financial sense, so still need to install a system. My plan is a DIY install. Here are the key factors:

1. Grid tie system, no batteries. Essentially a mini solar power plant on your roof.
2. 3kW system in my area yields about 4600 kWh per https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/
3. Assume average energy prices for my area based on https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm
4. Assume a 3kW system materials costs $6000, and maybe another $1000 for added costs (permits, electrician inspection, etc.). I bet this could get lower if one spends time shopping around.
5. Assume electricity rates increase 2% each year (I'm uncertain on this one).
   Assume S&P 500 grows 7% each year (also uncertain)
   KEY ASSUMPTION - for an apples-to-apples comparison, any savings not spent on electricity gets invested in the stock market. Treat this like a business, not a pass for increasing consumerism once the system gets paid off.
6. Each state has different regulations on power production. Some might only reimburse what you generate, others may buy back your excess. It depends.

Results: With the 30% tax credit through 2032, and the above listed assumptions for a DIYer, it would take me about 7 years to pay off the initial investment. The plot below shows 'Invested Savings' meaning what is not spent on electricity gets invested and grows at the same rate as the stock market. Anything after 20 years yields better returns in my situation (and assumptions). They say panels are generally warrantied for 25 years, but should last longer.

This is just a base cost for minimal usage. Say I add more panels, I could sell that back into the grid and get better long term returns. This doesn't consider the externalities. How do we put a price on preventing a solar farm in winter wildlife range?


SolarDIY reddit wiki page has some good resources to consider: https://www.reddit.com/r/SolarDIY/wiki/index/

Turns out I can't upload spreadsheets, but plopping in a pdf of the sheet.
View attachment 541610

Ok, well, in that case...

If I magically get on an alpha list-strike at 12% YoY by WAG, matched against compounding interest, dividends and every stock I own splits annually....

You're not doing honeycrisp to honeycrisp. You're doing I have more apples than you have honeycrisp.

You neglected roofs too-extremely foolish to install solar on an aged roof, asking for issues and throwing money away. There's $120+/square for the roof presuming run of the mill arch. shingles, not 3 tabs, not nice, basic.

The average house uses around 30kwh/day. Have you factored how you'll make up the large daily deficiency?

Parasitic loss, has that been factored?

Default setting per Your link:

 

[Trackerbacker]

Point is, it's decade+ for payoff.

Do this. Two, 20 year charts.

Chart one, starts at year 10 with 6k principal-no contributions-5% YoY.

Chart two- starts at year 0 with 6k principal-no contributions-5% YoY.

Which one pens out over 5-10-15-20 years- Chart one-solar, or Chart two-the markets? Overly simplified, apples to apples.

 

[Marble]

show the math


Have you had them installed yet?

For me, I spent 33k on a system and ended up paying about 23k after rebates. That was in 2017. My annual electric bills were about $8500. I'm not sure what it is per kwh now, but it is more. So without subsidies, I would break even in 4 years, with subsidies, it was 3. So now I'm 3 years positive, saving at least $8500 annually on electricity. In the 6 full years of owning it, I paid $1000 the first year in a "true-up" and $450 this year.

It seems I'm close to doubling my money in 6 years. Which is better than the S&P 500. And I am a dedicated investor.

I can say my situation is not typical of most on here. I have a large house, and I live in California, where electricity typically costs 43% more than the rest of the nation.

I am a fan of solar on commercial buildings and residences. I'm not a huge fan of taking up large amounts of real estate by utilities for solar energy creation.

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