The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

What the market does in the short term is mostly irrelevant unless you are a trader or are retiring, which at that point you should be in less risky markets

Long term, I feel confident AI will make money and that’s what I care about. Especially with the regular workforce becoming more and more pitiful. We are the ones forcing the AI investments. I could never imagine trying to run a business with today’s skills set and work ethic challenges.


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pacoalcracker said:
If Oracle is having a tough time making any money on their AI investments including with nvidia chips, how do you think the rest will fare out? Probably not too good. I think AI is way overhyped and the profit potential is way overstated. Perhaps Oracle is the canary in the coal mine. Microsoft has also stated last qtr that their clients don't want to pay extra for AI, it's expected to be provided at no cost. If those two can't make it happen, AI as a valid profit center might be doomed. Investors are already getting the willies......the next 6 months is going to tell the tale.

Yeah, I went thru the dotcom bubble and even Microsoft sank 85% and share price didn't go up for nearly 8 years even though they were profitable. It definitely wasn't only nonprofitable and new companies getting pommeled like you might think. It's pretty much that same thing again with FOMO and momentum trades far removed from legitimate PE ratios...1999 all over again and early 2000 sank the nasdaq 85% and the SP500 65%. Palantir is at what, 165 PE and sp500 at 22.5 or so for an extended period. What could possibly go wrong?
Click to expand...

I sure wish I had Microsoft back then and lost 85%. All I would’ve had to do is leave the other 15% sit and I’d be pretty comfortable right now I bet.


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Another thing that has changed since the dot.com bubble, from an investment support side (which is what really controls the stock prices) is…..

There’s been a huge switch from then to now, in people just investing into S&P 500 ETFs and such on an automatic basis that money keep rolling in weekly to the index, and is then dispersed to these big company’s

Yea media hype and AI trading platforms swing stocks around based off news headlines, but long term the retail investor still holds down the fort.

Way more people and methods of investing keep money being deposited to these companies today then could even be imagined in 2000. Pensions alone disappeared and created a big 401k demand, amongst all the other ways of investing now that keep it going. HSAs, Roths, 529s, etc etc.


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sasquatch said:
I sure wish I had Microsoft back then and lost 85%. All I would’ve had to do is leave the other 15% sit and I’d be pretty comfortable right now I bet
Click to expand...

Easy to say now with the benefit of hindsight.

I have been through a few of these big downturns and it’s never easy. Your Worldcom ( early 80’s) drops 30%…..then to 50%….then to 70% while Mackentire and assoc my “financial pro” advisor ( Ha, what a joke) says to hang on it will bounce back. They had me in appx 8 high flyers that never recovered- thankfully I dumped them down 50%.

I put mental stops on my investments and refuse to lose money. Yeah, I have been whipsawed….and yeah I have left money on the table….but I double my $$ about every 4 years and I’m good with that vs the one step forward two steps back investing approach.

Currently, i have harvested some profits and lessened my 100% exposure to about 55%.
 
Beendare said:
Easy to say now with the benefit of hindsight.

I have been through a few of these big downturns and it’s never easy. Your Worldcom ( early 80’s) drops 30%…..then to 50%….then to 70% while Mackentire and assoc my “financial pro” advisor ( Ha, what a joke) says to hang on it will bounce back. They had me in appx 8 high flyers that never recovered- thankfully I dumped them down 50%.

I put mental stops on my investments and refuse to lose money. Yeah, I have been whipsawed….and yeah I have left money on the table….but I double my $$ about every 4 years and I’m good with that vs the one step forward two steps back investing approach.

Currently, i have harvested some profits and lessened my 100% exposure to about 55%.
Click to expand...

You don’t go broke taking gains, and if there is a pullback you have cash to deploy.


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Doubling your money every 10 years sounds like a trading genius.

Except that the standard SP 500 has essentially been doing that for the last 10 years also, which is great. Requires less trading and the subsequent taxes to follow it also.


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MountainTracker said:
Morning,

Read this, this morning and thought some may enjoy it.

pomp.substack.com

The Architecture of Debasement: Anatomy of the Fiat Illusion

To investors,
pomp.substack.com pomp.substack.com


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Click to expand...
That was good.
Though, I don’t agree with debasement being a reason to own Bitcoin-as it has no value except what people are willing to pay for it.

Real Estate, a farm, businesses, Companies- producing value make sense in inflationary times. Commodities are tangible goods and are an inflation hedge though Im not a gold guy as I’ve seen it cycle up and down over the decades.

3/4 of my worth is in RE and businesses I control that are inflation resistant.
 
Reading through the internet on my lunch and a bunch of people complaining/freaking out about how the SP500 lost 2.5% today. These people not remembering 2008 or the start of lockdowns in 2020 or April 3/4 2025?
 
CorbLand said:
Reading through the internet on my lunch and a bunch of people complaining/freaking out about how the SP500 lost 2.5% today. These people not remembering 2008 or the start of lockdowns in 2020 or April 3/4 2025?
Click to expand...
Or 10/19/1987 (IIRC) when the DOW lost 25% that day.

2.5% is a flesh wound.


Eddie
 
Lots of longs cleaned out today. Markets closed for the next three days. Only one thing open to trading during that time.


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eddielasvegas said:
Or 10/19/1987 (IIRC) when the DOW lost 25% that day.

2.5% is a flesh wound.


Eddie
Click to expand...
Quick Google search says 22.5%. I was negative 4 years old when that happened.

I just chuckled reading the stuff people were posting. I remember March of 2020, sitting there refreshing my screen and laughing watching my portfolio decline by the minute. SP500 lost roughly 25% from March 9 to 16 of 2020.
 
I saw the dip today and kind of checked out, but assume we’re feeling the pinch of the 100% Chinese tariff announcement?
Sounds as if China may cut off rare earth exports, too.
 
We need to work on totally cutting ties with China and use India or others

China does NOTHING BUT steal from us. I can’t believe how big business has let them steal from them for decades.


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Trogon said:
Trying to learn this world, what does this mean? I know what long and short positions are, but what this means as a statement about the broader market is lost on me.
Click to expand...

Means nothing, within a week it’s likely to reverse

Most of this reaction is high speed AI trading platforms that follow news headlines. The retail investor is still holding and investing weekly, biweekly, and monthly

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