The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[MountainTracker]

And let's not forget the ~$6T in treasuries that'll need to be refi'ed before year end.

I swear I am not nearly smart enough to comprehend how the only likely outcome is pain and misery across the board for employment, housing prices, stock prices, inflation (going higher even though the numbers are fudged) and you name it.

Time will tell, but buckle up butter cup, I predict a wild ride.


Eddie

Eddie

Yep better snap up equities and assets that will hold value when it goes.

I think inflation data comes out this week, if down we could see more than .25 basis points next week.

Also, congrats to anyone holding Robinhood up 15% on S&P news.


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[Fowl Play]

Some good info in this article about the recent Echostar/SpaceX deal. https://www.lightreading.com/satell...apes-the-u-s-wireless-and-satellite-landscape

Some key takeaways. Echostar was paid $8.5 billion cash and an equivalent amount in SpaceX stock. This makes them a pretty significant SpaceX investor at this point. If I’ve done my math right. They are currently valued at $23 billion, so they are essentially 1/3 SpaceX stock. Possibly a good way to get exposure to SpaceX stock.

Also this new deal gives SpaceX their own frequencies for direct to cell communication at LTE speeds — which will be huge. Could be good news for T-Mobile as their partnership now has much more benefit to their customers. (Provided SpaceX doesn’t try to bypass them with a direct to consumer approach)

 

[cubdriver84d]

Was researching data center stocks the other day and almost bought some NBIS. Oh well.

 

[HuntHarder]

NBIS slipped thru the cracks with me too. Oh well, I didn't want to make 50% on my money anyway.

 

[DiabeticKripple]

How many times do I have to say, the FED dropping rates has little to zero effect on mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are based on the current inflation rate and the current 10 yr treasury bond. Example, inflation is 2.5% and the 10 yr bond is 4.5% and that gets you to a 7.0% rate on a 30 yr mortgage and a bit less on a 15 yr mortgage. Inflation isn't going lower and with the national debt at 37 trillion that 10yr isn't either. We are stuck here for a good while.

Up here in Canuckistan, mortgage rates are directly tied to the Bank of Canada rate. We have to renew mortgages every few years at the current rates.

I signed a 25yr mortgage with a 5 year term, at 3.39% then last time I renewed I had to go with 5.49% for 3 years. Now it’s looking like my rate will be in the low 4% range if the BoC doesn’t drop rates before December.

 

[MountainTracker]

Up here in Canuckistan, mortgage rates are directly tied to the Bank of Canada rate. We have to renew mortgages every few years at the current rates.

I signed a 25yr mortgage with a 5 year term, at 3.39% then last time I renewed I had to go with 5.49% for 3 years. Now it’s looking like my rate will be in the low 4% range if the BoC doesn’t drop rates before December.

Dang being forced to have to refi into a higher interest rate doesnt sound good.


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[DiabeticKripple]

Dang being forced to have to refi into a higher interest rate doesnt sound good.


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Yup you have to play with the term length to try and time what happens in the future.

I figured rates would be dropping in the near term when I signed my last deal. I did 3 years just for that reason. I’ll evaluate again in December when my renewal is up, might do a short term again and see if I can get a lower rate again in 3 more years

 

[SWFLhntr]

Like a government forced variable rate mortgage? That is bizarre.

 

[2531usmc]

France and the UK, and possibly Spain are sliding into a financial crisis….too much debt, too much social spending, and not enough financial activity generating taxes.

Is anyone positioning parts of their portfolio to take advantage of this?

Or conversely, protecting their portfolio if the financial crisis crosses the ocean and comes here?

 

[Clarktar]

Anyone been tracking OKLO and GEV? Wondering if they are over valued....

 

[Beendare]

France and the UK, and possibly Spain are sliding into a financial crisis….too much debt, too much social spending, and not enough financial activity generating taxes.

Is anyone positioning parts of their portfolio to take advantage of this?

Or conversely, protecting their portfolio if the financial crisis crosses the ocean and comes here?

France's Debt to GDP is over 100%- I think it's 114%. The French are revolting against austerity measures. It turns out, it's very hard to ween people off of giveaways- they want their freebies and its going to get worse with revolts- today Paris is burning.

Sadly, the US is at a higher Debt to GDP that France- I think its 118%. Our government is bloated to the point of ridiculous. One only has to look at the dept of Ed where there are way more admin than Teachers.

The fake Economic numbers are just now being reconciled and it looks like we were actually in recession as of April 2024 but it was being covered up. This probably won't surprise any small business owner.

Protecting your portfolio; I wish I knew more about how to do that effectively without spending a fortune- like playing the VIX. Personally, I have slowly taken money from some of my ETF's and stocks as they have risen and shifted it into Money markets, I'm currently at about 65% in stocks.
I went almost all in late 2024 but slowly pulled back taking a % of profits.

But Beendare we are at a market high? Yeah, and I sacrificed some profit to be in a position where I can still sleep at night if we hit a rough patch. If you are young, just keep Dollar cost averaging in...or in a big dip plug more money in and on a LT time frame, you will be fine. I'm an old guy so I rein it in a little.

 

[MountainTracker]

France and the UK, and possibly Spain are sliding into a financial crisis….too much debt, too much social spending, and not enough financial activity generating taxes.

Is anyone positioning parts of their portfolio to take advantage of this?

Or conversely, protecting their portfolio if the financial crisis crosses the ocean and comes here?

I’m not positioning for what will happen over seas, but I am for over here.

The world M2 supply is currently in a up only trend without being sustainable. As was pointed out it’s hard to stop once its starts (dollar milkshake theory)

Assets and equities that will hold/grow, as the currency inflates away, is what I’m focused on.


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[TNLC100]

Know there has been a decent amount of talk re: KULR on here over the years. Anybody have feelings either way about the long term outlook with them? Stock took a major hit this spring, trying to decide what to do with my remaining shares.

 

[pacoalcracker]

aftriathlete.....the 10yr bond dropped because of the very low jobs added for August in that latest report, so investors run to bonds with the thought that a recession has begun. More bond buying equals a lower yield...they work in opposite directions. It is often just a scare and it's over in a few days to a week....unless we are really entering a recession, then there will be a mad rush into bonds and stocks will tank.