Texas

[KurtR]

Yes, it's except panhandle and a tiny silver of east Texas.

thats what i understand but they were saying they need power from up here for them and must be able to get it some way. Mdu didnt have any black outs but people on wapa did. I know my dad did and he was pissed . There was a map that showed all the affected people from canada border to texas

found an article https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/15/us/storm-blackouts.html

 

[cuerro viejo]

I hope everyone down there comes through ok.


Wind works fine in northern states (Alaska uses wind farms year round), the issue is TX did not spend the money to winterize the wind mills. TX has the same issue with natural gas as the valves and gauges froze. https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-storm/

Wind has its issues, but blaming it in this case does nothing more than insure the diverse array of problems that lead to this are never addressed to score political points.

Another question to ask, are TX consumers willing to pay the added cost to winterize the power grid? This storm will be a fading memory in a year, but an extra $20-50 on a power bill will be fresh in everyone's mind with a monthly reminder.

We would be way better off if we diverted the same amount of money that we did on solar and wind infrastructure to making NG supply and infrastructure more robust. It's that simple

Comparing any northern states Wind power to Texas isn't even a scalable idea, you just can't. Especially Alaska. You are comparing 13k plus turbines to 104. Alaska dosen't have a percentage point or turbines or power out put.

Texans have made a $42,000,000,000 investment in wind. It's a joke. Money would of been better spent beefing up NG Infrastructure

 

[cuerro viejo]

I talked to one of my friends one time about the logistics of getting all the flare gas from oil wells into a distribution pipeline and it made my head hurt.

I still think renewable energy like wind is the direction that Texas should push but NG is going to continue to be a staple for a long while.

Is not that hard. Location location location.

After this, many will reconsider signing turbine leases. Grant it just about anyone can be bought especially if the up $10k per turbine per year to 12,15k etc.

With that said the Largest planned farm in the US (wind catcher) was cut three years ago after numbers didn't work out.

 

[Customweld]

Hope you folks are doing ok down there. When frozen water pipes start to thaw, that is when you are going to find a lot of problems. If you don't have running water or your pipes are froze, it would be wise to find your shut off valve.

 

[Mighty Mouse]

Interesting chart here. My takeaway is that the power problems in Texas are primarily demand driven, probably due to a bunch of people suddenly needing to run electric heaters balls out to keep their homes warm. Total generation ramped up 50% over the course of a week, even as wind generation was falling off. Natural gas generation has picked up most of the extra burden but evidently still can't fully keep up with demand. The problem is multifaceted and can't rightly be blamed on any single source. Once-in-a-century weather like these sustained 30+ degree below normal winter temperatures is bound to cause disruptions. Much of our society is unaccustomed to dealing with physical hardship, so it's not too surprising that this event is being talked up as a full blown crisis.

 

[Reburn]

Yeah I really love what those windmills do for the overall experience of being out in mother nature. I REALLY love seeing the thousands of them sit idle for most of the year in the panhandle and west texas.

My favorite thought is when the technology becomes obsolete and we get those beautiful monuments to stare at for the rest of eternity. Hey, at least everyone in the city gets to feel good about all that renewable energy being produced in their 500 SF apartment stacked on top of each other by the thousands.

Got it you dont like windmills. You would perfer Texas be beholden 100% to natural gas pipe lines coming from other states and Canada. Great. Thanks for your opinion. I'm glad that your not making decisions for the rest of us.

As I said. Windmills and solar are good but diversity is key. I would be fine paying $50 more each month to supplement the NG infrastructure as well. Putting all your eggs in one basket is never a sound business plan. This is a complicated issue on how it occured and its not going to be sorted out in a day. Diversting in windmills is a stupid idea. They are there they can still run just fine. I saw a number that only 25% of windmills froze up. Thats not a significant number.

 

[Marbles]

Marbles, not sure if they were blaming the wind turbines, but the fact that most are pushing to go to "clean green energy", and do away with gas and oil, especially in Texas has it's drawbacks.
Kinda like buying an electric car to avoid polluting the air with combustible by-products, but the plant that makes the batteries produce tons of pollution, and the coal fired electric plants are needed to recharge the car once you get home.

I'm not arguing for or against "green energy." There are lots of good idea fairies there, and it distracts from the topic of this thread. The trade offs and draw backs have little to nothing to due with the current problem and only serve to distract from actual solutions to the issue at hand (solutions that may or may not be worth the price).

We would be way better off if we diverted the same amount of money that we did on solar and wind infrastructure to making NG supply and infrastructure more robust. It's that simple

Comparing any northern states Wind power to Texas isn't even a scalable idea, you just can't. Especially Alaska. You are comparing 13k plus turbines to 104. Alaska dosen't have a percentage point or turbines or power out put.

Texans have made a $42,000,000,000 investment in wind. It's a joke.

Texas consumes more power than any other state in the nation, scale will always be an issue.

The point that wind turbines can still generate power in the cold still stands. North Dakota gets about the same percentage of its power from wind as does Texas, and it is currently exporting power to southern states. Texas is down 28,000 megawatts from natural gas, coal, and nuclear plants that are off line. It is down 18,000 megawatts from solar and wind. Solar and wind account for 28.6% of the states generation capacity, so corrected for generation capacity for each method solar and wind are down more as they account for 39% of lost capacity. Those numbers also makes it vary clear that the issue is much broader.

The hilarious thing is I never argued that wind was a good investment. I'm not really a fan of wind power for several reasons. However, it is failure to prepare, not "green" energy sources, that has Texas in its current predicament. The question of if it is worth the cost of preparing for rare events still stands. Not all risk is worth mitigating. Example, how many people are going to invest in a home natural gas generator and home underground natural gas storage as a result of this? Other than financial, what are the risks that come with doing so?

How much have Texans invested in natural gas? How much in coal? Without context that 42 billion is meaningless. I could not find good numbers, but I did find that the cost of modernizing Texas coal pants is 10 billion, so I'm willing to bet Texas just spends a lot on power infrastructure as it consumes more power than any other state.

 

[Billy Goat]

View attachment 265531
Interesting chart here. My takeaway is that the power problems in Texas are primarily demand driven, probably due to a bunch of people suddenly needing to run electric heaters balls out to keep their homes warm. Total generation ramped up 50% over the course of a week, even as wind generation was falling off. Natural gas generation has picked up most of the extra burden but evidently still can't fully keep up with demand. The problem is multifaceted and can't rightly be blamed on any single source. Once-in-a-century weather like these sustained 30+ degree below normal winter temperatures is bound to cause disruptions. Much of our society is unaccustomed to dealing with physical hardship, so it's not too surprising that this event is being talked up as a full blown crisis.

I don't get it. Where's the hydro part?


@@

 

[Mighty Mouse]

I don't get it. Where's the hydro part?


@@

Evidently hydro isn't a great option in the desert.

 

[cuerro viejo]

Hope you folks are doing ok down there. When frozen water pipes start to thaw, that is when you are going to find a lot of problems. If you don't have running water or your pipes are froze, it would be wise to find your shut off valve.

It's ugly, businesses and schools will be shut down for a while.

I'm not arguing for or against "green energy." There are lots of good idea fairies there, and it distracts from the topic of this thread. The trade offs and draw backs have little to nothing to due with the current problem and only serve to distract from actual solutions to the issue at hand (solutions that may or may not be worth the price).



Texas consumes more power than any other state in the nation, scale will always be an issue.

The point that wind turbines can still generate power in the cold still stands. North Dakota gets about the same percentage of its power from wind as does Texas, and it is currently exporting power to southern states. Texas is down 28,000 megawatts from natural gas, coal, and nuclear plants that are off line. It is down 18,000 megawatts from solar and wind. Solar and wind account for 28.6% of the states generation capacity, so corrected for generation capacity for each method solar and wind are down more as they account for 39% of lost capacity. Those numbers also makes it vary clear that the issue is much broader.

The hilarious thing is I never argued that wind was a good investment. I'm not really a fan of wind power for several reasons. However, it is failure to prepare, not "green" energy sources, that has Texas in its current predicament. The question of if it is worth the cost of preparing for rare events still stands. Not all risk is worth mitigating. Example, how many people are going to invest in a home natural gas generator and home underground natural gas storage as a result of this? Other than financial, what are the risks that come with doing so?

How much have Texans invested in natural gas? How much in coal? Without context that 42 billion is meaningless. I could not find good numbers, but I did find that the cost of modernizing Texas coal pants is 10 billion, so I'm willing to bet Texas just spends a lot on power infrastructure as it consumes more power than any other state.

context is what has came off line and replaced with Wind. Three coal plants off the top. Now what if we hadn't spent 42 billion on wind, we could of made 42 billion in enhancements to our NG supply chain and/or production facilities or even nuclear expansion. The 42 billion investment that’s not counting Federal Subsidies.

Also NG was diverted to homes first, Most never had a NG blk out .. no home lost NG unless a compression station was down. again if the NG infrastructure hadn’t been neglected for wind, we are good.

Houston average dec-feb temp 63/48, they hit sustained 8

Dallas average temp dec-feb 61/41 they hit sustained -2

 

[Superdoo]

Here’s a good article:

Here's what happened: Seeking answers for the winter 2021 Texas blackouts

Wind and solar failed when Texans needed them, and ERCOT's delay forced natural gas plants offline. We share data explaining the Texas blackouts...

lifepowered.org

 

[Red Letters]

View attachment 265531
Interesting chart here. My takeaway is that the power problems in Texas are primarily demand driven, probably due to a bunch of people suddenly needing to run electric heaters balls out to keep their homes warm. Total generation ramped up 50% over the course of a week, even as wind generation was falling off. Natural gas generation has picked up most of the extra burden but evidently still can't fully keep up with demand. The problem is multifaceted and can't rightly be blamed on any single source. Once-in-a-century weather like these sustained 30+ degree below normal winter temperatures is bound to cause disruptions. Much of our society is unaccustomed to dealing with physical hardship, so it's not too surprising that this event is being talked up as a full blown crisis.

Demand was on par with a normal really hot summer day, wind farms going down should have been compensated easily by the back up power stations but evidently their generators weren't winterized.
Expecting to have the basic services we pay for to work when we need them most or being frustrated when they don't is not the least bit out of line. We don't have a choice in any of this, they set the rates and percentages and we have to pay whatever they come up with.
And ultimately they will pass the extra cost that they going to come up with fixing the previous and future issue right back on to us. It's not like there was a vote and we voted for them not to winterize the generators so we could save .07 cents per (kWh)
Supply chain/lines for additional natural gas went down as well.

Not trying to be argumentative (with any of this) but this wasn't a once in a century storm, many parts of Texas get this weather all the time and it was worse than this in coastal areas in 89. (I just remember that because my son was born during that cold snap)
Almost every person on my street has carpet or sheet rock laying in the street from broken pipes and many of them turned off the water/drained the lines and still had pipes burst. Just guessing, I look for damage to be in the billions.

I ran my honda generator and we were business as usual at my house, but about 2:00 in the morning after our the power had been off 10 hours or so I couldn't help but worry about the older people in my neighborhood that had no idea this was going to happen. I just hope we don't see a lots of deaths because of it.

 

[Trial153]

Weather is great in Cancun!

Cancun, QR 10-Day Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com

Be prepared with the most accurate 10-day forecast for Cancun, QR with highs, lows, chance of precipitation from The Weather Channel and Weather.com

weather.com

 

[Marbles]

Here’s a good article:

Here's what happened: Seeking answers for the winter 2021 Texas blackouts

Wind and solar failed when Texans needed them, and ERCOT's delay forced natural gas plants offline. We share data explaining the Texas blackouts...

lifepowered.org

My only question with there statements is, why did Texas go from producing 7.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day a week ago to only producing 1.8 billion on Wednesday, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv Eikon. That, to me sounds like the Texas natural gas system is not as robust as they make out.

It's ugly, businesses and schools will be shut down for a while.

context is what has came off line and replaced with Wind. Three coal plants off the top. Now what if we hadn't spent 42 billion on wind, we could of made 42 billion in enhancements to our NG supply chain and/or production facilities or even nuclear expansion. The 42 billion investment that’s not counting Federal Subsidies.

Also NG was diverted to homes first, Most never had a NG blk out .. no home lost NG unless a compression station was down. again if the NG infrastructure hadn’t been neglected for wind, we are good.

Houston average dec-feb temp 63/48, they hit sustained 8

Dallas average temp dec-feb 61/41 they hit sustained -2

Wind might be a bad investment compared to natural gas. However, simply not installing wind does not translate to building a more robust system with the funds as capacity must be added somehow. A natural gas turbine plant does appear to cost about half as much to install per kW of capacity. Not sure where the break even point would come related to operating costs after install as the operating cost of wind is about 1/4 to 1/10 that of natural gas.

I imagine economics, more than ideology, drove ERCOTs decisions. However, perhaps I'm wrong and Texas put eco warriors in charge of it. Or, perhaps federal subsidies are what shifted the economics to favor wind. There are historical examples of subsidized development leading to bad decision making.

 

[cuerro viejo]

My only question with there statements is, why did Texas go from producing 7.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day a week ago to only producing 1.8 billion on Wednesday, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv Eikon. That, to me sounds like the Texas natural gas system is not as robust as they make out.



Wind might be a bad investment compared to natural gas. However, simply not installing wind does not translate to building a more robust system with the funds as capacity must be added somehow. A natural gas turbine plant does appear to cost about half as much to install per kW of capacity. Not sure where the break even point would come related to operating costs after install as the operating cost of wind is about 1/4 to 1/10 that of natural gas.

I imagine economics, more than ideology, drove ERCOTs decisions. However, perhaps I'm wrong and Texas put eco warriors in charge of it. Or, perhaps federal subsidies are what shifted the economics to favor wind. There are historical examples of subsidized development leading to bad decision making.

Federal subsidies plus EPA...100%


there is a reason why Texas leads capacityby such a substantial amount. It takes 2nd-5th to add up to Texas, those would be Iowa, Oklahoma, Cali and KS.

13k turbines x $8k-10k per year per turbine lease (4-6 per section).
Hard to say no to that kind of money With today’s beef and grain prices.


Also many of these wind fields sold in huge School district funding initiatives also to get voted in.

I’m partially to blame also, I signed a turbine lease.

But to anwser the NG question essentially a bottle neck in infrastructure combined with some winterization issues. We need more flow ability to plants, and even more plants

 

[Kountry Biscuit]

Got it you dont like windmills. You would perfer Texas be beholden 100% to natural gas pipe lines coming from other states and Canada. Great. Thanks for your opinion. I'm glad that your not making decisions for the rest of us.

As I said. Windmills and solar are good but diversity is key. I would be fine paying $50 more each month to supplement the NG infrastructure as well. Putting all your eggs in one basket is never a sound business plan. This is a complicated issue on how it occured and its not going to be sorted out in a day. Diversting in windmills is a stupid idea. They are there they can still run just fine. I saw a number that only 25% of windmills froze up. Thats not a significant number.

I don't know where you get your information. Have you ever looked at a NG pipeline map of Texas? Many of which originate in South Texas and traverse the entire country to northern states... Sorry that I am not exactly thrilled that your reusable energy utopia is not based on reality. Windmills are ridiculously inefficient which is why they can only be operated through government subsidy.

Like I stated before, half of them sit idle all year because of this fact. It takes more to operate them than the energy they produce. I am all about being diverse, but not when the cost of operation far outweighs the benefits. I think you're blinded by a one-sided groups talking points.

I would bet money that you do not live anywhere near where they build these solar farms and windmill forests... Not exactly a TRUE conservationists ideal sight to behold. Really saving the planet by going that route. Bravo

 

[Mighty Mouse]

My only question with there statements is, why did Texas go from producing 7.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day a week ago to only producing 1.8 billion on Wednesday, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv Eikon. That, to me sounds like the Texas natural gas system is not as robust as they make out.

I'm an engineer for an oil/gas producing field in central Oklahoma. My company's wells in this field typically produce around 400 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD) of natural gas, but over the last week we've been making around 30 MMCFD due to various cold-induced issues (e.g., frozen piping/valves, loss of power to automated equipment, compressors that won't run, processing plants that can't accept our gas). Sustained temperatures this low are very rare, and it doesn't make sense to equip our wells to handle such an extreme outlier event. My company also has wells in Texas that have been similarly adversely affected by this cold spell. It is physically possible to produce natural gas in very low temperatures, but it requires significant investment in cold-proofing your equipment (e.g., insulation, enclosures, heat tracing, methanol injection). Most of the time, these cold-proofing meaures would be wasted expense on wells in southern states.

 

[Trial153]

Way easier to blame windmills, plus you get to tow the party line while you at it. Win win.

 

[cuerro viejo]

Way easier to blame windmills, plus you get to tow the party line while you at it. Win win.

You mean it’s a better use of funds to expand NG and nuclear infrastructure, and winterize it instead of de-icing turbine with helo’s?

 

[Trial153]

You mean it’s a better use of funds to expand NG and nuclear infrastructure, and winterize it instead of de-icing turbine with helo’s?

Waste of money compared to flight to cancun. Come back when it warms up, easy fix. Us Texans dont need america..