South Dakota Rifle draw results

[Timberline001]

My daughter struck out with 3 points for WR any deer on a unit that use to take 1 point just a few short years ago.

That’s the story across the west. We struck out on doe tags that usually have left overs

 

[Trees91]

Drew my west river any deer and east river whitetail.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

That’s the story across the west. We struck out on doe tags that usually have left overs

Silly thing is the unit I put in for this year I had 5 of the 8 NR tags go to 2 pt holders, last year there wasn’t a single tag to anyone with less than 3, I was at 4


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[seawolfxix]

8 out of 9 people with my preference point count were drawn. Guess who wasn’t…

 

[Fatcamp]

Trials and tribulations of a bonus point system. Just no telling what will happen.

I drew a random deer tag in Wyoming this year with 2.5% chance and a leftover cow elk tag in South Dakota with about 6% chance. Bet that Wyoming tag pissed a bunch of people off.

 

[Timberline001]

Trials and tribulations of a bonus point system. Just no telling what will happen.

I drew a random deer tag in Wyoming this year with 2.5% chance and a leftover cow elk tag in South Dakota with about 6% chance. Bet that Wyoming tag pissed a bunch of people off.

Went from left over tags last year for a doe tag to 14.6% chance of drawing without points. Crazy

 

[Trees91]

I blew 5 years preference for my west river any deer. Drew any whitetail east river without any points....third year in a row. Been lucky I guess.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

Trials and tribulations of a bonus point system. Just no telling what will happen.

I drew a random deer tag in Wyoming this year with 2.5% chance and a leftover cow elk tag in South Dakota with about 6% chance. Bet that Wyoming tag pissed a bunch of people off.

I guess the point to my gripe probably could’ve been explained better, it seems like with the increased demand I am seeing this year for SD nonresident tags I think that our bonus points are going to start meaning less and less. The same thing has happened in multiple other states with bonus points, the system becomes so flooded with chances in the hat held by people at lower point levels that even though you are getting more chances each year your odds of drawing are actually going down.


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[NoWiser]

I guess the point to my gripe probably could’ve been explained better, it seems like with the increased demand I am seeing this year for SD nonresident tags I think that our bonus points are going to start meaning less and less. The same thing has happened in multiple other states with bonus points, the system becomes so flooded with chances in the hat held by people at lower point levels that even though you are getting more chances each year your odds of drawing are actually going down.


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If your odds are going down each year in SD, it's because of the applicants above you and their cubed points. It would take 331 brand new applicants to do as much damage to your odds as one person going from 10 to 11 points. Sure, a slug of new applicants definitely hurts odds, but the cubed points are an absolute killer for anyone except the very highest point holders.

 

[Fatcamp]

Ya, cubing is a huge benefit once you have a few points. Still, luck of the draw.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

Random question, does SD allow group applications? I’m still trying to figure out how 5 people out of 17 at 2 pts draw while only 3 out of 33 in the 3-7 points pools draw. I understand random luck but that is a mathematical anomaly that just doesn’t make any sense to me. It would make a lot more sense if a group of 5 at 2 pts drew together or something


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[Fatcamp]

Once you are above two points you are in the draw, with points cubed, and anything can happen. SD does have party applications, but I don't know much about them as we don't do it.

 

[Fatcamp]

If you want to see goofiness look at the results for the elk draw. Some looking shots for tags in those reports.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

Once you are above two points you are in the draw, with points cubed, and anything can happen. SD does have party applications, but I don't know much about them as we don't do it.

I understand how the draw works but the mathematical probability of ~60% of the tags coming from ~33% of the pool are extremely low, especially when that 33% is the lowest level pointholders in the pool


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[Cahunter805]

My daughter struck out with 3 points for WR any deer on a unit that use to take 1 point just a few short years ago.

Damn Go Hunt!

 

[Cahunter805]

Random question, does SD allow group applications? I’m still trying to figure out how 5 people out of 17 at 2 pts draw while only 3 out of 33 in the 3-7 points pools draw. I understand random luck but that is a mathematical anomaly that just doesn’t make any sense to me. It would make a lot more sense if a group of 5 at 2 pts drew together or something


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It’s my understanding that SD does allow group applications but the party only goes into the draw with the points of the lowest applicant in the group. No points are shared or averaged.
Which to me is a bummer as I have 10 BH points and 10 WR points and would share them if I could.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

Once you are above two points you are in the draw, with points cubed, and anything can happen. SD does have party applications, but I don't know much about them as we don't do it.

So I did some rough math and based on the numbers the odds of any 1 applicant with 2 points drawing in that particular unit should’ve been about 0.3% on any given tag. So the odds of 5 of those hitting on 8 tries is so low as to be completely unrealistic


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[Fatcamp]

I understand how the draw works but the mathematical probability of ~60% of the tags coming from ~33% of the pool are extremely low, especially when that 33% is the lowest level pointholders in the pool


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Ya, that pesky probability, low but not impossible. You could try calling to ask, but I highly doubt you will get a real response.

 

[Cahunter805]

So I did some rough math and based on the numbers the odds of any 1 applicant with 2 points drawing in that particular unit should’ve been about 0.3% on any given tag. So the odds of 5 of those hitting on 8 tries is so low as to be completely unrealistic


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The maximum number of applications in a group is 6 people so a group of 5 with 2 points could’ve drawn.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

The maximum number of applications in a group is 6 people so a group of 5 with 2 points could’ve drawn.

Makes sense


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