Some numbers on Corona Virus

[Montana Slim]

Most won't believe it, but saying the measures in place are flattening the curve and saving lives is no more correct or incorrect than saying doing nothing would make this significantly worse.

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So what do you think the situation would look like if international travel was still going at normal pace, nothing was shut down, and there were no social distancing measures in effect? With all those things, we are still experiencing fairly serious circumstances....

 

[*zap*]

Why would we have a nationwide shutdown for an opioid epidemic when a nationwide shutdown would not improve the number of deaths? That wouldn't make sense at all.

The nationwide shutdown is not going to change the # of deaths from kung flu very much it will just take longer for that # of deaths to happen than if things were left open. As far as a shutdown for drugs that was a figurative usage of the word shutdown. You certainly not seeing the 'concern' for those 70,000 deaths anywhere the concern for the 12,000 kung flu deaths.

 

[Billinsd]

Your post, unicorns and all, making light of what is happening, and the seriousness of it to people who have to deal with it, indicates to me that you don't take it seriously. I think that is unfortunate. It IS spooky to me and mine, I'm sorry that you can't empathize.

Do you point your finger when you talk AT people? My reply, unicorns and all was poking fun at the way you wrote your response and how extremely righteous you came off to me. I was laughing at your righteous indignation and calling people ignorant because they don't agree with you. I'm sure you are a very fine human being and being a nurse is a very noble profession. Cheers Bill

 

[jmez]

So what do you think the situation would look like if international travel was still going at normal pace, nothing was shut down, and there were no social distancing measures in effect? With all those things, we are still experiencing fairly serious circumstances....

You have no way of knowing either way. Things may be worse, things may be the exact same as they are now. There may be no statistical difference.

To say there would be because it seems to make sense and because we are doing something is incorrect.

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[Jacack]

Do you realize how many cities in the world are actually larger than NYC? I mean by quite a bit.

Would it surprise you to learn that NYC is 38th in the world?

And one of the only in the US where a mass transit system actually works and is used by millions daily

 

[Newtosavage]

This might very well be the dumbest thread I've posted on here so far. Just wow. What a complete waste of time. And I know better.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

Most won't believe it, but saying the measures in place are flattening the curve and saving lives is no more correct or incorrect than saying doing nothing would make this significantly worse.

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BOOM! I think it is so important to understand this post. I want to take a dirty sock and stuff it down the throat of every person who claims this is saving lives. From my understanding, we are being told it really isn't a question of if, its a question of when each of us are going to get it. So how in the world is that saving a life? In reality, if these exerts are right, all it is doing is delaying the infection rate for a lot of victims.

The same people telling us social distancing and isolation is saving lives are the ones claiming that we are all very likely to get it. These are the same people saying the public didn't need gloves and masks initially. Also, Dr Fauci said his concern with the Hydroxychloriquine craze is that patients that use it daily might not have it due to shortages. He also said he didn't care what he doctors in the field were seeing as results when pointing out they were positive for most who took it. And, you want me to hang my hope on his idiotic reasoning of dismissing field results in these trials?

What is ironic as heck is all these tidbits of advice were given to the American people this way while blatantly telling you differently. Look, there is no denying it because every government official responsible for saying these things were finally outed when they admitted their whole concern was timing. That you indeed did need to wear PPE's and practice safety mitigation's to ensure that when you catch it, there will be more resources to address your case. But, you didn't deserve one over a care provider. I tend to agree with them on that until shortages are fixed. But, don't lie to me about it like I'm a stupid person unable to accept reality. I'm a big boy. I can take it.

So, why does so many say this is saving lives? There are no bed shortages, no ventilator shortages, no medical staff shortages, etc..... I understand there may be but, we haven't even come close yet. Currenty, the only shortages that look like might come to tuition are the drugs being tested in positives COVID cases. Well, I have a mastermind plan on how to handle that. MAKE MORE!!!!!!!!!!!! Instead of deny its usefulness when what we do know about it seems to be undeniable.

Once again, if they are right, then how are they saving lives? If we are all mostly going to get it, how is delaying that anything but delaying it?

I guess it is a case of it feeling better to recite the message that appeals to you instead of being realistic. Because, saving lives is simply a misuse of words when describing what these implemented tactics are for.

 

[ramsdude47]

This might very well be the dumbest thread I've posted on here so far. Just wow. What a complete waste of time. And I know better.

Yep! Why do so many people who clearly have NO ******* CLUE act like experts online. Such a curious sociological phenomenon.

 

[jmez]

Correlation does not equal causation

Tyler Vigen Link

 

[jjentringer3921]

The nationwide shutdown is not going to change the # of deaths from kung flu very much it will just take longer for that # of deaths to happen than if things were left open. As far as a shutdown for drugs that was a figurative usage of the word shutdown. You certainly not seeing the 'concern' for those 70,000 deaths anywhere the concern for the 12,000 kung flu deaths.

There has been a lot of concern and money poured into the opioid epidemic. You can't attend a medical conference without being taught about the epidemic, new research, and new strategies to improve the numbers. that being said, 70,000 is a small number compared to the impact Coronavirus could have without extreme measures. Last I saw, the prediction was at least 1-2 million deaths in the US without these measures.

The nationwide shut down actually will most likely save a large number of lives.
1. It could possibly prevent a large number of people from getting the illness which in turn prevents death.
2. If you spread out the number of cases allowing people to have adequate resources (medications, ventilators, etc) and adequate medical care (nurse, RT, physician) then lives are saved. I think people assume if they need a ventilator they show up to the hospital, get a ventilator, and it's as easy as that. The procedure to intubate a sick patient is risky and requires multiple people. Then once intubated you are placed on a ventilator and you need constant monitoring from a nurse and respiratory therapist. You are also commonly placed on continuous medication drips that need constant titrating. Typically a nurse will have 1-2 vented patients, and anything more is really unsafe. Right now nurses are having to care for 10-12 vented patients at a time in some places. Stretching medical care this thin, leads to increased number of deaths. Deaths that shouldn't happen normally.
3. Spreading out the number of illnesses allows hospitals to try and build up the PPE and also life saving medications. Many hospitals are experiencing shortages or at risk for being short on life saving medications and especially certain inhalers and nebulizers. What if you are hospitalized, placed on a ventilator, but the hospital is out of the nebulizer you need, or out of the medication you need to maintain your blood pressure.
3. These measures decreasing infection rates can also protect healthcare workers from getting infected by limiting the amount of exposure. Right there you reduce the numbers of those infected as well.

I could continue on and on here but don't have the time.

I think there are important points to consider outside of just the mortality rate, like morbidity. Obviously death is the worse case scenario, but hospitalization alone has its consequences. What if you you end up with pulmonary fibrosis and your lungs are never the same, meaning you can never hike in the mountains and chase elk. What if your hospitalization bill is 500,000$ and you are never able to recover financially. The mortality rate is scary enough in my opinion, but it's important to look beyond just mortality rate.

This is my last post, as people obviously have their own opinions that likely wont be changed until they are personally affected by this virus or are working on the front lines. In my opinion, I don't think this nation needs to go on a 100% lockdown, but I do think social distancing is pretty important right now. I also think this is very different than the flu.

 

[MattB]

California hospitals look like a flu 'war zone'

Several hospitals in Southern California have set up emergency tents in their parking lots to treat the influx of flu patients as this year's deadly strand infects thousands.

www.dailymail.co.uk

No disagreeing, this is probably worse but not unheard of.

Are you suggesting the COVID-19, which is kiiling ~105 people every 1.5 hours in NY alone is only "probably worse" than the situation in the article you had posted in which 105 people had died to date in that flu season? From the article:

• The flu is devastating 49 states with Alabama declaring a State of Emergency and the death toll so far killing 85 adults and 20 children in the US.

 

[Billinsd]

Do you realize how many cities in the world are actually larger than NYC? I mean by quite a bit.

What's your point? What does it matter that there are 37 Cities bigger than New York City? Does that make it ok that people live on top of each other in New York City, because 37 mostly third world hell holes have more people?

 

[Billinsd]

This is my last post, as people obviously have their own opinions that likely wont be changed until they are personally affected by this virus or are working on the front lines. In my opinion, I don't think this nation needs to go on a 100% lockdown, but I do think social distancing is pretty important right now. I also think this is very different than the flu.

I'm sad to hear this is your last post. You do write a lot, way more than my short attention span can handle. Wise words.

 

[Billinsd]

yes, a bit ham-fisted... it’s more of the metro-centricity that plagues the nation...

That's why the electoral college is such a beautiful thing!! Could you imagine having all the power of the country in the major cities!!!

 

[Billinsd]

And one of the only in the US where a mass transit system actually works and is used by millions daily

How many people are robbed, killed or spit on or beat up in these mass transits? I don't know about New York City, I've never been and don't ever plan to visit.

 

[Billinsd]

Yep! Why do so many people who clearly have NO ******* CLUE act like experts online. Such a curious sociological phenomenon.

Can't fix stupid. Facts don't matter to some folks

This might very well be the dumbest thread I've posted on here so far. Just wow. What a complete waste of time. And I know better.

You both have certainly contributed a wealth of wisdom to this thread with your posts.

 

[AK Troutbum]

The nationwide shutdown is not going to change the # of deaths from kung flu very much it will just take longer for that # of deaths to happen than if things were left open. As far as a shutdown for drugs that was a figurative usage of the word shutdown. You certainly not seeing the 'concern' for those 70,000 deaths anywhere the concern for the 12,000 kung flu deaths.

So let’s say that is correct, so to speak. So now let’s consider a whole shit load of people become infected at one time, because there is no social isolation or any other measures to mitigate the spread. Now where do all those infected people go that require hospitalization? Well, they go to the hospitals, and guess what, the hospitals become inundated with patients, and possibly many of which require intubation and ventilatory support. Now guess what, there are no more ventilators to accommodate the number of people that need them. Okay, now guess what, the hospitals turn into a triage situation where people are determined to be more or less likely to succumb to this disease, the more likely will be put aside and left to die, the healthier people (less likely to die), will be given the ventilatory support (have you heard of a country called Italy?). This is also what is currently, but fortunately not so quickly happening in parts of the more heavily populated areas of the US. Now you must also take into consideration that just because there are people that are lucky enough to get the vents it doesn’t necessarily mean that they will survive. So all that aside, now let’s consider this mass influx of patients into our health care system. Not only will this overwhelm the system, but it also puts the very people that are qualified to deal with the specialized care of these patients, at a much, much higher risk of succumbing to the illness as well. Now who will take care of these people? Oh, but unfortunately it doesn’t end there. Now let’s consider the lack of PPE, and the lack of medications to keep these people alive. Like for instance the sedation and vasoactive medications that are essentially required to maintain these patients on a ventilator. Oh, I forgot about the antibiotics that these people will need to fight the secondary infections that are oh so common with pulmonary viral infections. Oh man, now if that wasn’t enough, let’s now deal with the issue of getting all these medications. Well guess what, the majority of them are produced in where....China. So, after all that, I think that maybe this self isolation might just help in more ways than just slowing down the inevitable. I’m sure I’m missing something, because I’ve had a few drinks before heading into work tomorrow morning to continue this fight, and I’m felling a bit overwhelmed, and personally fu**ed right now.


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[*zap*]

Yes, I understand that this is a complicated issue....I hope and pray that everyone here and their loved ones stay safe from covid-19..

 

[roosiebull]

When all this is finally over, there will be a lot of people that say it was all media/gov hype and it wasn't nearly as bad as what they said it could be. The problem is they are introducing drastic measure to try and keep the problem low. So, you might say they overreacted, but you won't know if that's true or the actions of the gov/people kept this from being a thousand times worse.

Nobody believes anything that doesn't fit their agenda anymore. If they want to be panicked, they won't listen to a single thing that tells them they're crazy. If they don't think it's a big deal, they won't listen to anybody (including scientists) that are saying we should be seriously worried about this.

I think you are pretty on point here.

I have my own approach and don't trust any of the media coverage here... i'm not gonna pick a side for the sake of doing it as a stance.

i understand everyone can't be as right as they think they are, which likely fills my head with 50% half truths, and no way to stratify the good info from bad.

having strong opinions and thinking they matter more than the next guy's doesn't give anything to anyone as far as useful info. i hope we can get this thing under wraps so fewer die, and we can get back to work.

i quit listening to, and reading the news on this, does no good whatsoever for me. i will continue to keep my distance from people so i'm one less body unless i actually need something, that's all of the control i have over this situation.

the news has almost completely depressing content.... the media spends all of it's time high lighting doom and gloom, zero hope, zero positivity and optimism. other things to do besides focusing on everything bad.

the media needs a psychiatrist to rid some of the chronic depression

 

[MattB]

You have no way of knowing either way. Things may be worse, things may be the exact same as they are now. There may be no statistical difference.

To say there would be because it seems to make sense and because we are doing something is incorrect.

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We can easily deduce there would because of what is happening in New York. Consider it a microcosm of what occurs when you have more contact and a faster spread.

Honestly, it is ridiculous that people would even suggest otherwise. Suggest that more death faster would be ok because the economic benefit would balance it out -ok. But don't be so dense as to suggest that more human contact wouldn't cause a higher rate of infection of a communicable disease because that is just stupid.