Rut has started

If you don't mind maybe elaborate a little bit on what this translates to. so an earlier or later starting rut, are you meaning when we start to see young or older deer starting to chase does around? And if it is an earlier rut like some are starting to speculate/observe, how long does that go or start to change as seasons that are upcoming? It would be easy for someone to think that if the rut is earlier this year, and like you said saw a buck chasing on 10/20, that some of this will be over prior to the 3rd season in Colorado, or is it a slow ramp up and by that time there will be more widespread chasing/rut behavior?
I don't know anything for sure.

But I don't think the small bucks rut earlier, I just think there is way more of them so we observe them rutting and assume "big ones up high, not rutting yet". That goes completely against what I've seen when I know where a big buck is--he's the first to be chasing the does; he's not going to let those little bucks get the action.

(and I've seen the same behavior with big bull elk).

And I don't mean "chasing" I mean doing the deed! I don't beleive there is such a thing as pre-rut (as in they're sorta in the rut, sorta not) That's like not knowing what to do on your honeymoon. Those bucks know what that scent in the air is. It's been documented that big bucks occassionally follow cow elk in September when they're in heat and can get away with it. Pre-rut is to me is the period before any does go into esterous.

I'm sure there are regional timing differences in the West (we know below the 35th parallel approx Flagstaff, the rut starts later) but if a herd will experience significant winter, the fawns have to be born in a pretty tight window in early June to have the best chance at surivival. too early ,spring storms take them out, too late and they don't put on enough weight before winter.

Add to all this cold weather and snow, and the rut can get intense about anytime around and after Halloween regardless of moon phase, it seems

I'm totally open to feedback and challenge on these ideas; they're just my experiences (but do line up with WT behaviour which has been copiously studied for decades.)
 
Hmmm, my buddy has a good unit 3rd tag. I told him to budget the whole week if he could (he did) and that he probably wouldn't be missing too much opening weekend in his unit if he wanted to join me and my boys in a different unit that first weekend (my boys can only hunt the weekend) and I was gonna pivot and join him in his after. That was based on the rut heating up more through 3rd rifle and letting the first weekend frenzy (both elk and deer hunters) die down a bit in his unit. Am I steering him wrong by suggesting he's not likely missing much the first couple days in his unit if the run is already starting to come on?

I could use the help first weekend depending on what my boys connect with but don't want to give bad advice, my opinion above was honest from my perspective. But this thread has me second guessing.
 
From my observations it seems that crazy rut action is around November 22- December 2 in my neck of SW Colorado. This when I tend to see the most next level bucks out and about and lots of breeding and fighting.
 
Walking around my neighborhood in Durango a couple of times a day, I'm not seeing any signs of rutting at all yet. Bucks still feeding together in the same bachelor groups they've been in all summer with no interest in the does.
 
So maybe a way to think about it is that there is a bell curve of dates of when doe's are coming into estrous, a handful start a little earlier, then there are more and more every day until a peak then there are fewer and fewer after that peak. And those early days are what some may call the "Pre-rut" where there is a little chasing because a couple does are in estrous but most are not. Then when that peak hits, there is much more chasing going on across the area. That would explain why you see one buck chasing a doe hard then 5 miles away you see a big buck that is not doing a thing because there isn't a doe in that area. But, based upon the date when the bucks are first chasing doe's we can deduce that the peak rut will be earlier/later relative to other years?

Do you think there is a consistent timeline that one could try to use that when that first buck is chasing/doing the deed, then we are 10 days, 15 days, 5 days, away from the "Peak" when you would expect to see the most bucks out chasing/cruising/pursuing does within a regional area?

To Pods8 post, is there reason to think that if the rut has started earlier, and therefore that peak is moved up in the timeline then there would be more benefit to be in the field early as possible so that you are avoiding that tail end of the rut when the chasing may start to reduce and finding a buck out and about be a little harder, or maybe the mature buck you're after may move areas in order to find more doe's that he hasn't bred yet?

Obviously, every day something can happen, and if you're not out there you never know what is going on, but through a 10 day period, if you had 5/7 days to dedicate, is there any compelling evidence that the first 5/7 days or the last 5/7 days would be better than the other from a hunters perspective?

I don't know anything for sure.

But I don't think the small bucks rut earlier, I just think there is way more of them so we observe them rutting and assume "big ones up high, not rutting yet". That goes completely against what I've seen when I know where a big buck is--he's the first to be chasing the does; he's not going to let those little bucks get the action.

(and I've seen the same behavior with big bull elk).

And I don't mean "chasing" I mean doing the deed! I don't beleive there is such a thing as pre-rut (as in they're sorta in the rut, sorta not) That's like not knowing what to do on your honeymoon. Those bucks know what that scent in the air is. It's been documented that big bucks occassionally follow cow elk in September when they're in heat and can get away with it. Pre-rut is to me is the period before any does go into esterous.

I'm sure there are regional timing differences in the West (we know below the 35th parallel approx Flagstaff, the rut starts later) but if a herd will experience significant winter, the fawns have to be born in a pretty tight window in early June to have the best chance at surivival. too early ,spring storms take them out, too late and they don't put on enough weight before winter.

Add to all this cold weather and snow, and the rut can get intense about anytime around and after Halloween regardless of moon phase, it seems

I'm totally open to feedback and challenge on these ideas; they're just my experiences (but do line up with WT behaviour which has been copiously studied for decades.)
 
So maybe a way to think about it is that there is a bell curve of dates of when doe's are coming into estrous, a handful start a little earlier, then there are more and more every day until a peak then there are fewer and fewer after that peak. And those early days are what some may call the "Pre-rut" where there is a little chasing because a couple does are in estrous but most are not. Then when that peak hits, there is much more chasing going on across the area. That would explain why you see one buck chasing a doe hard then 5 miles away you see a big buck that is not doing a thing because there isn't a doe in that area. But, based upon the date when the bucks are first chasing doe's we can deduce that the peak rut will be earlier/later relative to other years?

Do you think there is a consistent timeline that one could try to use that when that first buck is chasing/doing the deed, then we are 10 days, 15 days, 5 days, away from the "Peak" when you would expect to see the most bucks out chasing/cruising/pursuing does within a regional area?
Yes, the whole world's on a bell curve and I think that's exactly what's going on...

I don't think there is a consistent timeline though, just like this year, early full moon but seems rut picking up earlier too.
 
Obviously, every day something can happen, and if you're not out there you never know what is going on, but through a 10 day period, if you had 5/7 days to dedicate, is there any compelling evidence that the first 5/7 days or the last 5/7 days would be better than the other from a hunters perspective?
Essentially a way to phrase it, yeah.


In my buddies case I was thinking that rut wouldn't be going as hard yet so likely not missing much for mature bucks coming out. But also with the circus of other hunters in full effect I figure windows of opportunity are likely reduced further, IE a mature buck might be out but then is spooked by elk hunters and bugs out. Where as when the crowds die down more chance the buck stays out longer, can be spotted, and can be closed in on.

There are other factors in mind too but I was asking about the rut perspective.


Other factors: there can be elk in the spot me and my boys are hunting. Buddy will probably have a OTC bull tag and one of my sons has a cow tag for target of opportunity. Him being there offers some divide and conquer and packout support considerations for everyone involved in terms of getting meat in coolers before becoming more focused on looking for a mature buck on his tag. Ultimately he needs to make his choices, I just was wondering if my prior thoughts which I shared with him should be amended.
 
yes, but I'm no expert with excel spreadsheets but this is what I think:

On years when the full moon lands around the 20th of October, you can look for an earlier rut (like starting 17th or so).

If full moon is earlier than that, it seems to set rut later, like 25th into early November.

in 2021 we had full moon on Oct 20th and the rut started right away and intensely and the next year, all the radio-collared does gave birth were a week earlier.

2022 full moon on the 9th and not much rutting activity until late Oct/early Nov and radio collared deer put fawns out on time.

2024, full moon Oct 17th and rut seemed to start early BUT I've not confirmed birth dates for 2025 on collared deer (it's on my to-do list)

2025 was early full moon (6th) but seems that rut is starting a little early with this thread.

I'm sure there's more to it, but that's what I think

@willfrye027 has had some interesting observations too, but I can't remember what he told me but it seemed in line with this (you there man? Can't remember our PM. Old man stuff, lol)
Yessir we had a full moon in early September that threw the blacktails into a real good rut, about 2 weeks early than normal. Resulted in two good bucks for this area both were killed because they were sniffing does instead of doing normal mature buck things. We saw lots of bucks chasing and harassing does during the season, which usually does not happen!


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