Reliable stone sheep pricing

[Mykolaivka887]

Nothing I’d rather do than sheep hunt but I can’t justify the costs. And no the prices will NOT be going down. Ever.

Agreed. When I first started selling Dall Sheep hunts, I priced them at $4,500 for a 10-day one-on-one and included black bear and wolf for free. Now they're up to $23,000 for the same hunt. The reality is that sheep hunts are not going down in price, ever.

 

[wyosteve]

I started going to the SheepShow in the late ‘80’s. Stone hunts at that time were $25k so they’ve increased 3-4 times. I suspect wages have gone up more in comparison.

 

[SDHNTR]

Nowhere I hunt are hunter numbers declining. Utter BS. Anyone who believes that must still read Outdoor Life! But, a 30% drop in hunters sure sounds awesome!

 

[MojaveJim]

I heard on the Wild Sheep Foundation podcast from an old sheep hunter, that a sheep hunt costs about what a new Pick-Up truck costs over the course of time. Just like the saying about a gold coin will always buy you a nice pair of boots & a steak dinner, now & back in history. Just Inflation, lately it's seems out of control.

 

[Chumsnagger]

Yes, fewer hunters now. The hunters are different now. In the 60’s and 70’s it seemed everyone hunted that I knew. Some rural businesses would shut down for deer season- no employees or customers at that time of year. These hunters almost exclusively hunted whitetails, turkey and small game, occasionally someone would go out west for mule deer or elk-maybe even a moose in AK. These hunters gradually phased out in the 80s and 90s- “ hard to find a place to hunt” was usually the reason.
The farm they previously hunted was now leased out to “professional” hunters for 100s of dollars. Dad and his kids no longer had a place to hunt. A few of these “pro’s” leased multiple farms. So now 2-3 hunters may have displaced a dozen other hunters that just dropped out of hunting. Then these pro hunters would hunt whitetails in Illinois, bear in Minnesota , elk in Colorado, mule deer in Montana, moose in Alaska almost every year.
So today we have a lot fewer hunters, but the hunters we do have, go on multiple hunts for multiple species every year.

 

[AK Troutbum]

Well, under the laws of supply and demand:

"Baby boomers make up our nation’s largest cohort of hunters, and they’ve already begun to age out of the sport. Within 15 years, most will stop buying licenses entirely.

In Alaska most baby boomers have already stopped buying hunting licenses, and in one more year, 100% of the baby boomers up here will no longer be buying hunting licenses.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Spiral Horn]

The OP actually poses a very valid question, as most have been pretty stunned by just how much and how quickly all sheep hunts have jumped in price, especially stones. I’m certain he’s not alone in trying to wrap his mind around it.

What caused it, and whether the increases will continue are really two different questions. The second question is easier to answer. Yes, it will continue, at least in the short run. But the first question is a bit more complicated.

The price spikes since ~2019 are due to a confluence of factors, here are just a few:
- the very long bull market, especially the huge run-up in the past few years (2017-2021) gave a lot of folks more money than they ever dreamed of.
- there is a lot of prestige in sheep hunting and it is widely considered the pinnacle
- organizations like SCI, GSCO, WSF made achievement/award categories and species like Stones are required for the most prestigious of them - GS of North American Wild Sheep, North American 29, GSCO Triple Slam, etc. There is also non-stop marketing of sheep hunts by those orgs. Pics, stories of great adventure and achievement, etc.
- unlike many other species, where after taking that buck or bull of a lifetime - many choose to move on. Sheep hunters tend to stay on sheep. So the demand curve is very different. I’m getting accustomed to seeing guys being congratulated for their 4th, 5th, and even seem to remember seeing an 8th Grand Slam of Sheep. Since most ”boomers” are not leaving the sheep hunting queue, new hunters are facing unusual demand. Best thing that ever happened to the sheep hunting industry.
- COVID - lockdowns, travel bans, and numerous delayed hunts have really jammed up outfitter schedule for the next few years. Many outfitters I’ve recently spoken with have no openings until at least 2025, some 2026. Conversely a few Canadian residents got some great deals on outfitted hunts during the lockdown period.
- there’s recently been a lot of turnover in ownership of many sheep outfitting operations. Some areas sold at a large premium and new owners have debt to pay off in addition to running their operations.

I completely agree with the guy who said the world is full of surprises and nobody knows what the future holds. There will certainly be new influences that are not even yet suspected that influence guided hunts and prices. Where will prices go when the numerous boomers who keep cycling through sheep camps move on to golf? Who knows, but it will certainly impact long-run demand.

Someone said they’d never seen any hunt prices come down. The best deal in all hunting is African Plainsgame. And yes, in many cases it is less expensive than it was 15 years ago — just look at trophy fees for Roan and Sable. But before someone jumps in and points out that some of those animals are bred on game farms (which is true), another factor is a huge number of folks did those hunts and there was an ever-booming market 10-20 years ago. These hunts were immensely popular and folks were tripping over themselves to go and have the experience. But many hunters have gone multiple times and moved on. Demand for these hunts is no longer what it was in its day and prices are generally the same of even lower than they once were.

Not saying this will happen to sheep hunting, but I’m in the camp that believes once the COVID schedule jam clears out, and the 5+ Grand Slam Cyclers move on, demand will fall. After all, sustained prices of $75-100k+ will push out a significant amount of the potential market. Right now many folks are racing to get in due to fear of being priced-out. After some time those folks will not even bother to check prices anymore. If prices rise further, the demand pool will continue to shrink. That’s just simple economics. Also, financial markets have been very volatile as of late. It will be interesting to see where things go if there is a bear market for a while.

Sorry for being so long-winded. Been watching this for a while with some concern.

 

[Grisha]

This may sound harsh, and please don't take this personally, because anytime anyone on here posts a question asking how much a sheep hunt is I think the same thing as I do right now.......If you were serious about going on a stone hunt, you would already know the answers to these questions because you would be calling different outfitters in BC and talking to them. It's not a mystery who the quality outfitters are.....they are all over this and other forums, and also easily found in the back of Wild Sheep magazine.

And if you are not serious, then you are only asking for this information to put some negative light on it or tear down people who are paying for it, or to perhaps reinforce your lack of participation as somehow being "smarter" than the people who are paying for these hunts. It's really none of your business what they cost. That's between an outfitter and his client at the time of booking. Even clients booked with the same outfitter should not be comparing notes on what they paid to book. It is bad form.

The outfitter I mentioned above is a top, well known outfitter, but I'm not going to say who it is, so don't bother PMing me about it. Do your own due diligence if you are serious about it.

This may sound harsh, and please don't take this personally, because anytime anyone on here posts a question asking how much a sheep hunt is I think the same thing as I do right now.......If you were serious about going on a stone hunt, you would already know the answers to these questions because you would be calling different outfitters in BC and talking to them. It's not a mystery who the quality outfitters are.....they are all over this and other forums, and also easily found in the back of Wild Sheep magazine.

And if you are not serious, then you are only asking for this information to put some negative light on it or tear down people who are paying for it, or to perhaps reinforce your lack of participation as somehow being "smarter" than the people who are paying for these hunts. It's really none of your business what they cost. That's between an outfitter and his client at the time of booking. Even clients booked with the same outfitter should not be comparing notes on what they paid to book. It is bad form.

The outfitter I mentioned above is a top, well known outfitter, but I'm not going to say who it is, so don't bother PMing me about it. Do your own due diligence if you are serious about it.

It doesn't sound harsh, though it sounds defensive. To answer your question, I have certainly talked with a number of outfitters and guides. Of course they have their own interests in mind which is why a sanity check is always in order. Anyone who doesn't try to get a read on what's going on at this level from from clients and others is probably not thinking rationally.

 

[Millek47]

The OP actually poses a very valid question, as most have been pretty stunned by just how much and how quickly all sheep hunts have jumped in price, especially stones. I’m certain he’s not alone in trying to wrap his mind around it.

What caused it, and whether the increases will continue are really two different questions. The second question is easier to answer. Yes, it will continue, at least in the short run. But the first question is a bit more complicated.

The price spikes since ~2019 are due to a confluence of factors, here are just a few:
- the very long bull market, especially the huge run-up in the past few years (2017-2021) gave a lot of folks more money than they ever dreamed of.
- there is a lot of prestige in sheep hunting and it is widely considered the pinnacle
- organizations like SCI, GSCO, WSF made achievement/award categories and species like Stones are required for the most prestigious of them - GS of North American Wild Sheep, North American 29, GSCO Triple Slam, etc. There is also non-stop marketing of sheep hunts by those orgs. Pics, stories of great adventure and achievement, etc.
- unlike many other species, where after taking that buck or bull of a lifetime - many choose to move on. Sheep hunters tend to stay on sheep. So the demand curve is very different. I’m getting accustomed to seeing guys being congratulated for their 4th, 5th, and even seem to remember seeing an 8th Grand Slam of Sheep. Since most ”boomers” are not leaving the sheep hunting queue, new hunters are facing unusual demand. Best thing that ever happened to the sheep hunting industry.
- COVID - lockdowns, travel bans, and numerous delayed hunts have really jammed up outfitter schedule for the next few years. Many outfitters I’ve recently spoken with have no openings until at least 2025, some 2026. Conversely a few Canadian residents got some great deals on outfitted hunts during the lockdown period.
- there’s recently been a lot of turnover in ownership of many sheep outfitting operations. Some areas sold at a large premium and new owners have debt to pay off in addition to running their operations.

I completely agree with the guy who said the world is full of surprises and nobody knows what the future holds. There will certainly be new influences that are not even yet suspected that influence guided hunts and prices. Where will prices go when the numerous boomers who keep cycling through sheep camps move on to golf? Who knows, but it will certainly impact long-run demand.

Someone said they’d never seen any hunt prices come down. The best deal in all hunting is African Plainsgame. And yes, in many cases it is less expensive than it was 15 years ago — just look at trophy fees for Roan and Sable. But before someone jumps in and points out that some of those animals are bred on game farms (which is true), another factor is a huge number of folks did those hunts and there was an ever-booming market 10-20 years ago. These hunts were immensely popular and folks were tripping over themselves to go and have the experience. But many hunters have gone multiple times and moved on. Demand for these hunts is no longer what it was in its day and prices are generally the same of even lower than they once were.

Not saying this will happen to sheep hunting, but I’m in the camp that believes once the COVID schedule jam clears out, and the 5+ Grand Slam Cyclers move on, demand will fall. After all, sustained prices of $75-100k+ will push out a significant amount of the potential market. Right now many folks are racing to get in due to fear of being priced-out. After some time those folks will not even bother to check prices anymore. If prices rise further, the demand pool will continue to shrink. That’s just simple economics. Also, financial markets have been very volatile as of late. It will be interesting to see where things go if there is a bear market for a while.

Sorry for being so long-winded. Been watching this for a while with some concern.

Great post- and I agree with you 1000 percent that we will see a correction once the stock market has a correction later this year.

 

[Mykolaivka887]

By 2035, if not sooner, you''re going to see Alaskan hunts for Dalls averaging real close to $40K (+/-). There's going to be a huge jump in price for Alaskan sheep hunts, within the next decade. Right now they're averaging about $25K, but that's going to change dramatically upward within the foreseeable future.

 

[Jyaug12]

The OP actually poses a very valid question, as most have been pretty stunned by just how much and how quickly all sheep hunts have jumped in price, especially stones. I’m certain he’s not alone in trying to wrap his mind around it.

What caused it, and whether the increases will continue are really two different questions. The second question is easier to answer. Yes, it will continue, at least in the short run. But the first question is a bit more complicated.

The price spikes since ~2019 are due to a confluence of factors, here are just a few:
- the very long bull market, especially the huge run-up in the past few years (2017-2021) gave a lot of folks more money than they ever dreamed of.
- there is a lot of prestige in sheep hunting and it is widely considered the pinnacle
- organizations like SCI, GSCO, WSF made achievement/award categories and species like Stones are required for the most prestigious of them - GS of North American Wild Sheep, North American 29, GSCO Triple Slam, etc. There is also non-stop marketing of sheep hunts by those orgs. Pics, stories of great adventure and achievement, etc.
- unlike many other species, where after taking that buck or bull of a lifetime - many choose to move on. Sheep hunters tend to stay on sheep. So the demand curve is very different. I’m getting accustomed to seeing guys being congratulated for their 4th, 5th, and even seem to remember seeing an 8th Grand Slam of Sheep. Since most ”boomers” are not leaving the sheep hunting queue, new hunters are facing unusual demand. Best thing that ever happened to the sheep hunting industry.
- COVID - lockdowns, travel bans, and numerous delayed hunts have really jammed up outfitter schedule for the next few years. Many outfitters I’ve recently spoken with have no openings until at least 2025, some 2026. Conversely a few Canadian residents got some great deals on outfitted hunts during the lockdown period.
- there’s recently been a lot of turnover in ownership of many sheep outfitting operations. Some areas sold at a large premium and new owners have debt to pay off in addition to running their operations.

I completely agree with the guy who said the world is full of surprises and nobody knows what the future holds. There will certainly be new influences that are not even yet suspected that influence guided hunts and prices. Where will prices go when the numerous boomers who keep cycling through sheep camps move on to golf? Who knows, but it will certainly impact long-run demand.

Someone said they’d never seen any hunt prices come down. The best deal in all hunting is African Plainsgame. And yes, in many cases it is less expensive than it was 15 years ago — just look at trophy fees for Roan and Sable. But before someone jumps in and points out that some of those animals are bred on game farms (which is true), another factor is a huge number of folks did those hunts and there was an ever-booming market 10-20 years ago. These hunts were immensely popular and folks were tripping over themselves to go and have the experience. But many hunters have gone multiple times and moved on. Demand for these hunts is no longer what it was in its day and prices are generally the same of even lower than they once were.

Not saying this will happen to sheep hunting, but I’m in the camp that believes once the COVID schedule jam clears out, and the 5+ Grand Slam Cyclers move on, demand will fall. After all, sustained prices of $75-100k+ will push out a significant amount of the potential market. Right now many folks are racing to get in due to fear of being priced-out. After some time those folks will not even bother to check prices anymore. If prices rise further, the demand pool will continue to shrink. That’s just simple economics. Also, financial markets have been very volatile as of late. It will be interesting to see where things go if there is a bear market for a while.

Sorry for being so long-winded. Been watching this for a while with some concern.

Well written and I agree with many of your points.

 

[t_carlson]

In Alaska most baby boomers have already stopped buying hunting licenses, and in one more year, 100% of the baby boomers up here will no longer be buying hunting licenses.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The estimated population of Alaska in 2021 was 732,673.
That is out of a country of about 332 million people.
What percentage of Alaskans are hunters?
What percentage of those Alaskans are sheep hunters?
What percentage of Alaskan sheep hunters have any desire to kill a Stone sheep?
And what percentage of those have actually purchased a Stone sheep guided hunt in the last decade?



Statistical insignificance.

 

[t_carlson]

No, I do not. The younger folks will get older and wealthier, sheep populations are in decline, and sheep hunting is the pinnacle of hunting.

Its current popularity among young people is through the roof. The number of young guys (and gals) at Sheep Show is astounding. The participation of young folks on western hunting forums, listening to hunting podcasts, etc. are at all time highs. The appetite for sheep hunting info, stories, gear, etc. among younger folks has never been higher.

Plus I think you are not giving near enough consideration to the supply side of the equation. There is only a very limited supply of wild sheep tags available any given year. And that’s not going to change significantly.

If anyone really wants to go sheep hunting, they should go now if the costs haven’t already gone up too much for them. JMHO.

Dreamers don't drive the prices of Stone sheep hunts. I'd love to see some data on the median income of those that attend the Sheep Show. My guess is, its a little like the RMEF chapters in Texas or 95% of the BHA events. Full of talkers, and not many doers. And, as you point out, supply is low. What percentage of people who attend the Sheep Show will still be going in 10 or 20 years? How many of those will still be interested by the time they are 50+ and can actually swing a Stone sheep hunt?

The Sheep Show is more a product of advertising dollars from Kuiu, Sitka, and Stone Glacier than anything.

And Baby Boomers will be the last generation with an impactful "bucket list." Younger people are entering the workforce later and later, and coming out of school with lots of debt. Then, they have kids later in life. That does not bode well for the kind of wealth building that is necessary for buying guided Stone sheep hunts.

Someone said they’d never seen any hunt prices come down. The best deal in all hunting is African Plainsgame. And yes, in many cases it is less expensive than it was 15 years ago — just look at trophy fees for Roan and Sable. But before someone jumps in and points out that some of those animals are bred on game farms (which is true), another factor is a huge number of folks did those hunts and there was an ever-booming market 10-20 years ago. These hunts were immensely popular and folks were tripping over themselves to go and have the experience. But many hunters have gone multiple times and moved on. Demand for these hunts is no longer what it was in its day and prices are generally the same of even lower than they once were.

To this point, I was talking to an outfitter in Alberta last week. He's been in the business over 30 years and was mentioning the boom and bust of different species. He said when he first started, everything was whitetail, whitetail, WHITETAIL.

Now, he doesn't even book up all of his whitetail hunts in any given season. Mule deer, on the other hand, is generating lots of interest as of now.

The natural human view is very myopic.

 

[Mykolaivka887]

I'd love to see some data on the median income of those that attend the Sheep Show. My guess is, its a little like the RMEF chapters in Texas or 95% of the BHA events. Full of talkers, and not many doers .....

The Sheep Show is more a product of advertising dollars from Kuiu, Sitka, and Stone Glacier than anything ......

You're right on target with those two speculations.

 

[2five7]

Well, under the laws of supply and demand:

"Baby boomers make up our nation’s largest cohort of hunters, and they’ve already begun to age out of the sport. Within 15 years, most will stop buying licenses entirely. And when they do, our ranks could plunge by 30 percent...Hunting participation peaked in 1982, when nearly 17 million hunters purchased 28.3 million licenses. Hunter numbers have steadily declined since. We lost 2.2 million hunters between 2011 and 2016 alone. In 2016, just 11.5 million people hunted. That’s less than 4 percent of the national population. Baby boomers (anyone born between 1946 and 1964) make up roughly a third of all hunters nationally. They currently range from 54 to 72 years old, which means the oldest have already crossed the threshold for aging out."

Why We Suck at Recruiting New Hunters, Why It Matters, and How You Can Fix It

Baby boomers make up our nation's largest cohort of hunters, and they've already begun to age out of the sport. Within 15 years, most will stop buying licenses entirely. And when they do, our ranks could plunge by 30 percent—along with critical funding for wildlife management, advocacy for...

www.outdoorlife.com

Demand is about to take a large drop.

What do the laws of supply and demand say will happen when demand drops by 30%???



I agree with you politically 100%.

I just get tired of having it shoved in my face every time the door cracks.

There won't be a drop in demand for any western game species in my lifetime, or probably ever. Gen X and even Millennials have plenty of interest in hunting, and together those two generations outnumber the boomers by quite a bit. Couple that with declining Sheep and Muley populations.

Example, in the late 80s Utah was selling around 200k Buck Mule deer tags every fall, over the counter, with a state population of 1.7 million. This year, there will be only around 75k available, draw only, state population of nearly 3.5 million. Double the people, less than half the tags.

 

[SDHNTR]

There won't be a drop in demand for any western game species in my lifetime, or probably ever. Gen X and even Millennials have plenty of interest in hunting, and together those two generations outnumber the boomers by quite a bit. Couple that with declining Sheep and Muley populations.

Example, in the late 80s Utah was selling around 200k Buck Mule deer tags every fall, over the counter, with a state population of 1.7 million. This year, there will be only around 75k available, draw only, state population of nearly 3.5 million. Double the people, less than half the tags.

This is truth. And even if/when the baby boomers die or opt out of the game, where do think that wealth is going to go? It’s not going to vaporize. It will land in the hands of Gen X and Millenials, all ready to spend it on sheep hunts.

Those of you that think there will be any meaningful pendulum swing back to less expensive are delusional. There’s simply far too much wealth out there creating demand, and limited/diminishing wildlife supply. Short term/mild recessions and this recent inflation have minimal impact on the high and ultra high net worth out there. I see this every day. It’s my job, literally. Wealthy people are only generating more wealth, it’s what they do. This is not changing.


Hunting is only declining east of the Rockies because whitetails and rabbits don’t get clicks and likes on the internet. No one cares. Mule deer, elk, and sheep out West get the clicks. And internet traffic is what drives the future. It makes me want to puke, but it’s a fact.

 

[AK Troutbum]

The estimated population of Alaska in 2021 was 732,673.
That is out of a country of about 332 million people.
What percentage of Alaskans are hunters?
What percentage of those Alaskans are sheep hunters?
What percentage of Alaskan sheep hunters have any desire to kill a Stone sheep?
And what percentage of those have actually purchased a Stone sheep guided hunt in the last decade?



Statistical insignificance.

No idea, my comment was only in response to baby boomers buying hunting licenses, and in particular Alaska.

 

[wyosteve]

Just for a bit of nostalgia and perspective- my friend who was on our Texas aoudad hunt in Jan. was telling us he went on a 21 day hunt for Stone sheep, moose, caribou and mountain goat for $3600! He filled all 4 species. But he also said that was a lot of money back then!

 

[cbeard64]

At 59 I hope I’m able to still handle the mountains when this Great Sheep Hunt Price Deflation/Implosion takes place.

 

[t_carlson]

There won't be a drop in demand for any western game species in my lifetime, or probably ever. Gen X and even Millennials have plenty of interest in hunting, and together those two generations outnumber the boomers by quite a bit. Couple that with declining Sheep and Muley populations.

Example, in the late 80s Utah was selling around 200k Buck Mule deer tags every fall, over the counter, with a state population of 1.7 million. This year, there will be only around 75k available, draw only, state population of nearly 3.5 million. Double the people, less than half the tags.

Can you find me someone who was predicting back at the height of the whitetail craze that it would die down someday? Or as someone posted earlier, African plains game?

Utah's tag numbers were intentionally cut to further a different goal, so its not really a good comparison. If a portion of the huntable Stone Sheep population is suddenly declared off limits by a government, then of course, that will affect things. But nobody can predict that, and its not what we're discussing here.

I'm not saying that Stone Sheep hunts will ever be cheap. But that is very different from saying that they will remain the same price as they are today relative to the US dollar.