The OP actually poses a very valid question, as most have been pretty stunned by just how much and how quickly all sheep hunts have jumped in price, especially stones. I’m certain he’s not alone in trying to wrap his mind around it.
What caused it, and whether the increases will continue are really two different questions. The second question is easier to answer. Yes, it will continue, at least in the short run. But the first question is a bit more complicated.
The price spikes since ~2019 are due to a confluence of factors, here are just a few:
- the very long bull market, especially the huge run-up in the past few years (2017-2021) gave a lot of folks more money than they ever dreamed of.
- there is a lot of prestige in sheep hunting and it is widely considered the pinnacle
- organizations like SCI, GSCO, WSF made achievement/award categories and species like Stones are required for the most prestigious of them - GS of North American Wild Sheep, North American 29, GSCO Triple Slam, etc. There is also non-stop marketing of sheep hunts by those orgs. Pics, stories of great adventure and achievement, etc.
- unlike many other species, where after taking that buck or bull of a lifetime - many choose to move on. Sheep hunters tend to stay on sheep. So the demand curve is very different. I’m getting accustomed to seeing guys being congratulated for their 4th, 5th, and even seem to remember seeing an 8th Grand Slam of Sheep. Since most ”boomers” are not leaving the sheep hunting queue, new hunters are facing unusual demand. Best thing that ever happened to the sheep hunting industry.
- COVID - lockdowns, travel bans, and numerous delayed hunts have really jammed up outfitter schedule for the next few years. Many outfitters I’ve recently spoken with have no openings until at least 2025, some 2026. Conversely a few Canadian residents got some great deals on outfitted hunts during the lockdown period.
- there’s recently been a lot of turnover in ownership of many sheep outfitting operations. Some areas sold at a large premium and new owners have debt to pay off in addition to running their operations.
I completely agree with the guy who said the world is full of surprises and nobody knows what the future holds. There will certainly be new influences that are not even yet suspected that influence guided hunts and prices. Where will prices go when the numerous boomers who keep cycling through sheep camps move on to golf? Who knows, but it will certainly impact long-run demand.
Someone said they’d never seen any hunt prices come down. The best deal in all hunting is African Plainsgame. And yes, in many cases it is less expensive than it was 15 years ago — just look at trophy fees for Roan and Sable. But before someone jumps in and points out that some of those animals are bred on game farms (which is true), another factor is a huge number of folks did those hunts and there was an ever-booming market 10-20 years ago. These hunts were immensely popular and folks were tripping over themselves to go and have the experience. But many hunters have gone multiple times and moved on. Demand for these hunts is no longer what it was in its day and prices are generally the same of even lower than they once were.
Not saying this will happen to sheep hunting, but I’m in the camp that believes once the COVID schedule jam clears out, and the 5+ Grand Slam Cyclers move on, demand will fall. After all, sustained prices of $75-100k+ will push out a significant amount of the potential market. Right now many folks are racing to get in due to fear of being priced-out. After some time those folks will not even bother to check prices anymore. If prices rise further, the demand pool will continue to shrink. That’s just simple economics. Also, financial markets have been very volatile as of late. It will be interesting to see where things go if there is a bear market for a while.
Sorry for being so long-winded. Been watching this for a while with some concern.