Porcupine and Central Arctic Herd population news

[Larry Bartlett]

Just received the counts for these two herds. Results show both herds have declined since their last counts: Porcupine Herd declined 34% since 2017 (218,000 in 2017 to 143,000 in 2025) and the Central Arctic Herd is down an estimated 23% since 2022 (34,600 in 2022 to 26,600 in 2025).

Lower calf survival and reduced adult survival rates contribute the greatest.

Still, currently the best two herds available to Alaska hunters.

Good hunting

 

[akhunter3]

For all the "intensive management" ADFG is doing not a whole lot of increasing caribou populations anywhere in the state

 

[ZMT]

For all the "intensive management" ADFG is doing not a whole lot of increasing caribou populations anywhere in the state

Not a ton they can do. Taking out a bunch of predators helps short term, but doesn't change the fact that lichen is disappearing fast in a lot of the state and being taken over by vegetation as it gets warmer

 

[Larry Bartlett]

Yeah i think in this region predation is not the major contributor. It appears habitat quality and natural ebbs and flows are the culprits. Weather and range are critical supporting elements of a healthy herd. The intensive predator management strategies deployed in the Mulchatna and northern AK Penn are a different story. Bears have learned to congregate in calving areas and reek havoc on calves, which is slightly less common with other herds. This concentration is worsened by low salmon returns, so bear search for alternative easier food sources. Once the state identifies manageable threats beyond environmental influences, they are compelled to do something, anything, that shows effort to recover or support game population growth. It's not a perfect system but it's what we have today.

 

[ZMT]

Yeah i think in this region predation is not the major contributor. It appears habitat quality and natural ebbs and flows are the culprits. Weather and range are critical supporting elements of a healthy herd. The intensive predator management strategies deployed in the Mulchatna and northern AK Penn are a different story. Bears have learned to congregate in calving areas and reek havoc on calves, which is slightly less common with other herds. This concentration is worsened by low salmon returns, so bear search for alternative easier food sources. Once the state identifies manageable threats beyond environmental influences, they are compelled to do something, anything, that shows effort to recover or support game population growth. It's not a perfect system but it's what we have today.

Are there any viable proposals to open up unguided NR hunting in areas where predator control is deemed as important? I imagine the guide lobbyists have too much control to let that happen, but IMO, open up those areas to unguided brown bear hunts and reduce the tag costs for them, black bears, and wolves. Everyone wins, besides guides, which is probably why it hasn't happened

 

[Larry Bartlett]

Always proposed, always rejected. It makes too much common sense for NR to harvest brown/griz as an opportunistic species, especially in caribou country. It would solve 30% of the problems IMO, but you're right about the guide lobby, it's strong and seems to be very much against the idea.

 

[Mvaughan]

Thanks for posting this up, Larry. I received the pamphlet yesterday and was able to skim through it, I thought it was pretty interesting….especially the fluctuation of estimated herd numbers in a relatively short time frame.

 

[MallardSX2]

But these people still don't seem to have a hard time "killing what they need to survive"...

 

[Blake C]

Just received the counts for these two herds. Results show both herds have declined since their last counts: Porcupine Herd declined 34% since 2017 (218,000 in 2017 to 143,000 in 2025) and the Central Arctic Herd is down an estimated 23% since 2022 (34,600 in 2022 to 26,600 in 2025).

Lower calf survival and reduced adult survival rates contribute the greatest.

Still, currently the best two herds available to Alaska hunters.

Good hunting

Glad to see something from you Larry. I always enjoyed your YouTube videos

 

[Larry Bartlett]

There is a sentiment about the rural native collective that is happiest when caribou herds decline as much as the WAH has because fewer non-native and non-local hunters are allowed to hunt their resource. The herd still declines by 10,000 animals almost regardless of biological reasons and careful management, and that's because locals shoot what they can find and take only the healthiest (fattest) looking caribou and leave the rest to feed the flies and the earth. It's despicable because we've been taught it's wrong, but that's just the way they pursue their personal beliefs.

 

[kwackkillncrew]

ah yes, the reason the caribou arent migrating the normal paths across rivers is due to the non locals coming up and flying out, it wouldnt be beacuse of the boats patrolling the river waiting for the caribou to get in the river and then pop them with 22's.

 

[VernAK]

I've watched caribou herds grow and crash when lichen was plentiful and hunters were fewer and I don't have an answer either.

It almost equates to the Snowshoe Hare cycle on a much longer curve and we just don't have sufficient history to document the rise and fall of the caribou herds through multiple cycles.

Some two decades after buying Alaska from Russia, Lt Allen and a Sargent were dropped off in the area of Hinchinbrook Island and finally boated to the Cordova area. Their intent was to walk on the ice of the Copper River [yikes] but because of a late start they had to walk the shore and ford numerous streams and rivers. They were able to trade for some Dall's Sheep meat near Chitina but existed on Snowshoe Hares until the salmon caught with them far upriver. They hiked to Tanacross on the Tanana River where they built a raft and floated the Tanana River to the Yukon River. At that point they hiked North to the Koyukuk River and again built a raft. They rafted down the Koyukuk to the Yukon and on to the Bering Sea. They never saw a moose nor a caribou but did see one black bear in that entire journey.

Forty years later Frank Glaser in Alaska's Wolf Man tells of caribou herds often estimated at 300,000 migrating through the heart of that same area.

Was it the lichen? There wasn't enough native population to have much effect, and motorized access wasn't an issue.

 

[medvedyt]

access to the food is part of the equation but i remember in northern quebec where and when some localities never got caribou then suddenly got them so shifting of migration is a sure thing, calving grounds are all the same and i will the drilling of oils will affect way deeper the porcupine that we can imagine ... what i discovered is that while snowshoe hares is roughly a 7 years cycle the caribou one is 50 to 100 years so alas not that much is known. let s hope we all have good august caribou hunting for good meat while we can ...

 

[medvedyt]

Are there any viable proposals to open up unguided NR hunting in areas where predator control is deemed as important? I imagine the guide lobbyists have too much control to let that happen, but IMO, open up those areas to unguided brown bear hunts and reduce the tag costs for them, black bears, and wolves. Everyone wins, besides guides, which is probably why it hasn't happened

you will see less opportunity of hunting moose and caribou before opening the predator control (fro grizzly and brown bear) and from what i read in the past it s not only the outfitters/guide blocking that ... but there is always a way to do so become a resident lol ...