Porcupine and Central Arctic Herd population news

[Larry Bartlett]

Just received the counts for these two herds. Results show both herds have declined since their last counts: Porcupine Herd declined 34% since 2017 (218,000 in 2017 to 143,000 in 2025) and the Central Arctic Herd is down an estimated 23% since 2022 (34,600 in 2022 to 26,600 in 2025).

Lower calf survival and reduced adult survival rates contribute the greatest.

Still, currently the best two herds available to Alaska hunters.

Good hunting

 

[akhunter3]

For all the "intensive management" ADFG is doing not a whole lot of increasing caribou populations anywhere in the state

 

[ZMT]

For all the "intensive management" ADFG is doing not a whole lot of increasing caribou populations anywhere in the state

Not a ton they can do. Taking out a bunch of predators helps short term, but doesn't change the fact that lichen is disappearing fast in a lot of the state and being taken over by vegetation as it gets warmer

 

[Larry Bartlett]

Yeah i think in this region predation is not the major contributor. It appears habitat quality and natural ebbs and flows are the culprits. Weather and range are critical supporting elements of a healthy herd. The intensive predator management strategies deployed in the Mulchatna and northern AK Penn are a different story. Bears have learned to congregate in calving areas and reek havoc on calves, which is slightly less common with other herds. This concentration is worsened by low salmon returns, so bear search for alternative easier food sources. Once the state identifies manageable threats beyond environmental influences, they are compelled to do something, anything, that shows effort to recover or support game population growth. It's not a perfect system but it's what we have today.

 

[ZMT]

Yeah i think in this region predation is not the major contributor. It appears habitat quality and natural ebbs and flows are the culprits. Weather and range are critical supporting elements of a healthy herd. The intensive predator management strategies deployed in the Mulchatna and northern AK Penn are a different story. Bears have learned to congregate in calving areas and reek havoc on calves, which is slightly less common with other herds. This concentration is worsened by low salmon returns, so bear search for alternative easier food sources. Once the state identifies manageable threats beyond environmental influences, they are compelled to do something, anything, that shows effort to recover or support game population growth. It's not a perfect system but it's what we have today.

Are there any viable proposals to open up unguided NR hunting in areas where predator control is deemed as important? I imagine the guide lobbyists have too much control to let that happen, but IMO, open up those areas to unguided brown bear hunts and reduce the tag costs for them, black bears, and wolves. Everyone wins, besides guides, which is probably why it hasn't happened

 

[Larry Bartlett]

Always proposed, always rejected. It makes too much common sense for NR to harvest brown/griz as an opportunistic species, especially in caribou country. It would solve 30% of the problems IMO, but you're right about the guide lobby, it's strong and seems to be very much against the idea.