Points planing 2 year, 5 year 10 year and beyond sharing my thoughts

[Mojave]

So this isn't going to be comprehensive, because I don't want to share that much intel or information. So welcome to vague city.

I am a resident of New Mexico currently so this is my example. If you aren't a western resident you might do something else. If your finances dictate more or less than do that.

first Tier! Randoms
I call my first tier my I don't know what will happen tier. As there are no points in New Mexico, and I have no way of knowing what will happen, I prioritize tags that way.
In New Mexico I apply for every species.
I only apply for tags I am willing to actually hunt. New Mexico considers all your choices before they move onto the next person. So I generally shoot for the moon for the first choice and put in for tags I would be happy with for the 2nd-4th choices.

I also do Idaho the same way. Most years I apply for elk, deer and antelope in Idaho. I never draw, but it is worth trying.

There are other states that go into this pool, and one off stupid expensive draws like Oklahoma that I am too stupid to stop applying for. This is mostly the adjust fire if I draw the tag pool. I don't plan to draw any of these hunts, but I don't conflict these applications with hunts in my other two tiers.

Tier 2, this is your this year to 3 year plan.
I put in for non-resident tags I know I can draw, and I buy points for the 2-5 year draw tags. This is your OTC or "general" tags that require a few points. This also includes things like female species tags. I either build points or apply depending on how many tags I need for the amount of leave (PTO) I get in a year.
These tags are a gimme and they are generally female species or low quality tags.

Tier 3, this is your 3-8 year tags. I will apply for a couple of these, if I am short on tier 2 tags. But just like randoms I don't count on them. These are your 10-20 percent odds tags. I build points, and do put in for these tags but I do not count on drawing them.

Tier 4. These are the tags that you will raw in the 7-15 year points groups. Or tags that have 5-20 percent change of draw. This is the beginning of no mans land. I put in for 1-2 of these tags.

Tier 5. These are BOL tags or once in a lifetime tags with draw odds in the .001-5 percent realm. I don't worry about tag conflict with these tags. I don't buy points for these tags other than in Utah, Nevada and Arizona. I also consider lottery tickets hunt to be the same. I try to put in for as many of these as I can financially manage. I don't buy more than couple of lottery tickets for the lottery draws.

I think you should deconflict tags as much as you can. As a Tier 5 tag and a Tier 4 tag drawn in the same period would be rough. Some of the seasons for this top tier tag overlap a good known commodity tag in another state.


This is my very vague plan. You should be able to fill in some blanks and come up with something similar.

 

[Mojave]

I have 6 weeks of what you folks would call PTO. Family vacations and taking off for teacher work days eats bout 3 weeks and I try to hunt the remainder of the other 3. I think everyone has to deconflict with their spouse, and mine is a teacher so it is pretty easy.

Resident state apply for all tags
Non-odds tags apply for 6-10 tags these aer low odds
High odds tags apply for enough to fill 50% of available "hunting" PTO. This also includes tags I have "enough" points to draw.

Tier 3,4, 5 tags apply for enough to fill the rest of the PTO ensuring dates are correct and deconflcted.

I usually only double dip tags during similar timelines once.

Meaning I do not apply for high odds tags and low odds tags during the same season. Unless there is enough time to make it work.

I will never apply for 3 tags during the same hunt time period.

 

[willfrye027]

Solid. I’ve got a pretty similar setup, but a little less organized. It pays to plan ahead at least 3-5 years and account for some point creep.

I’ll add the idea of having a “dream fund”. I have X amount of dollars going into a high yield savings account every month. With the idea that some day I’ll use it for a OIL type hunt where I want/need a guide, maybe a LO tag on a year I can take a sabbatical from work, Alaska, who knows. With how expensive things have become, the only way I could stomach something expensive and fairly frivolous like that is if the money is already set aside for that purpose.

Also, I am thankful to be in CA for the reason of getting 2 OTC deer tags and plenty of backcountry to explore. If all else fails I can do some pretty epic hunts locally. It’s probably one of maybe two benefits of living where I do..

 

[Mojave]

I would look at chamois, mouflon and stag hunts in Europe. I would also look at reindeer hunts in Greenland.

 

[willfrye027]

I would look at chamois, mouflon and stag hunts in Europe. I would also look at reindeer hunts in Greenland.

Call me crazy I’d rather spend that money on a LO tag and spend 2-3 weeks (or more) hunting for a big mule deer

That could all change in the next 5-10 years when I start looking at using it..but I’m very happy i set it up a few years ago. There’s enough now that if I draw one of those surprise low-odds tags and want to hire a guide/drop camp etc, it won’t stretch the budget.

 

[RunNGunSC]

I use a similar multi-state / multi-species strategy. Honestly it takes 4-5 years to get going, so the first years are just paying dues. My goal is one limited entry DEA tag every year. I also play OIL lottery odds tags when it makes sense. I drew Maine Moose this year, after striking out on 20 plus better odds applications!

 

[Mojave]

I use a similar multi-state / multi-species strategy. Honestly it takes 4-5 years to get going, so the first years are just paying dues. My goal is one limited entry DEA tag every year. I also play OIL lottery odds tags when it makes sense. I drew Maine Moose this year, after striking out on 20 plus better odds applications!

Not every time, but the lottery tags and hunts are cheaper and often not super far off in odds with the .001 tags in Bonus points high stakes hunts.

Some of the hunts are guided, outfitted and they give you a new rifle. Not saying any of these are super low odds, but they are worth $10-20 at least for a couple a year.

Annoyingly the cost of playing this game is going higher and higher every year.

Montana example is about $1500 a year if you draw. About 500 if you don't.

New Mexico you are into elk about $1000 About $95 if you don't.

Wyoming elk, antelope and deer in the special is $4500 if you draw.

You can spam all western states for all tags and hopefully you end up with something. I can't even imagine what that would cost.

Do you plan, take a guided situation or a landowner tag if you don't have anything worked out. Try for some cancellation hunts in August and September where you don't have to pick up the tag prior.

Always a lot of cancellations in Canada. Keep an eye out call your booking agents and a lot of times you can get on a super hunts for half price.

 

[Rich M]

You can't hunt out west or many NR states without planning ahead anymore. I think even CO got rid of the OTC.

So, welcome to the club.

I been on 3 western hunts; 0 points, 1 point, 4 points. The next one will be 9-10-11 points. That's the plan anyway - I'd like to do it once more and might be about 10 years before we head west again.

Am in a 2-3-5 yr draw system for WT deer, hogs, turkey, gators at home, so it is a reality either way.

 

[5MilesBack]

I only apply for tags I am willing to actually hunt.

Isn't this kind of a given? Or are there people out there that apply for tags they don't want.

 

[ReaptheHeat]

Isn't this kind of a given? Or are there people out there that apply for tags they don't want.

Aren't you in the discussion on the Colorado Leftover draw? Yes all the time lol.

 

[5MilesBack]

Aren't you in the discussion on the Colorado Leftover draw? Yes all the time lol.

I'm sure people turn in tags for all kinds of different reasons, I have. But when applying I have full intentions of doing that hunt. I can't imagine applying for tags that someone knows they won't use.

 

[Hnthrdr]

Isn't this kind of a given? Or are there people out there that apply for tags they don't want.

We see it every draw cycle with guys asking if they should hunt a tag they weren’t actively trying to draw… the problem is, 10 years ago the number of guys with “draw strategies” and the cost (ie fronting all the money in Co) kept some people in check. With the free flow of low hanging fruit info everyone has a draw strategy and throwing 10 bucks a tag for a bunch of states… and that’s how we got to where we are today…

 

[steelheadmike]

A big factor in how you plan is where you live. I'm lucky enough (really, luck had nothing to do with it) to now live in a state where I am guaranteed to have an elk tag and a deer tag in my pocket every year. Previously, I had a strategy to hunt elk every other year or so and was playing the points game in a couple states as well as going after "OTC" tags. Now, I just play the points game in one state because it offers some different hunts than what's available in my home state. I don't really have a strategy, more of point "fun-money" when I feel like switching it up a bit.

 

[CB4]

Being from Iowa and getting out west currently once a year, hopefully twice a year in the next 2-3 years most of my strategies are 3-5 years out anyways. These are fluid as I have a lot of these points being close to built up currently outside of 10+ year plans. It will be interesting to see how ID sets up their draw for the OTC tags. I have a google drive spreadsheet to track it all to stay organized. There are a lot of videos on youtube going over this stuff from GoHunt/HuntinFool/Randy Newberg and many more. I dont think it is sharing any secrets.

ID/WY/CO/MT = 2-5 year plans for elk, deer, and antelope
UT/NV = 2-7 years for deer and 15+ for elk
AZ = 5-10 years for elk maybe
NM = ??? for elk

 

[Hnthrdr]

Being from Iowa and getting out west currently once a year, hopefully twice a year in the next 2-3 years most of my strategies are 3-5 years out anyways. These are fluid as I have a lot of these points being close to built up currently outside of 10+ year plans. It will be interesting to see how ID sets up their draw for the OTC tags. I have a google drive spreadsheet to track it all to stay organized. There are a lot of videos on youtube going over this stuff from GoHunt/HuntinFool/Randy Newberg and many more. I dont think it is sharing any secrets.

ID/WY/CO/MT = 2-5 year plans for elk, deer, and antelope
UT/NV = 2-7 years for deer and 15+ for elk
AZ = 5-10 years for elk maybe
NM = ??? for elk

This is the problem though. There are no secrets or hard earned knowledge anymore. The spread of this information on a limited resource has jacked demand, I think circa 2012 or so and western hunting demand is going through the roof, along with population booms in the Rocky Mountain West. Unfortunately all this “great info” only puts more strain on opportunities and results in less opportunity for all and pits a lot of R vs NR issues, which in turn makes guys dive deeper into structured plans on certain hunts certain years… the ultimate self-licking ice cream cone if you will.
(This isn’t directed at any individual, more so at the general state we find ourselves in)

 

[IdahoBeav]

Given the increase in demand over the last 5-10 years, i.e. point creep, can you really make plans for another 5-10 years out?

For this reason, I am glad to live in a lottery state with vast OTC opportunity for residents.

 

[Hnthrdr]

Given the increase in demand over the last 5-10 years, i.e. point creep, can you really make plans for another 5-10 years out?

For this reason, I am glad to live in a lottery state with vast OTC opportunity for residents.

Exactly. The point creep I saw in Co this year alone in some units would be hard to extrapolate over 5-10 years.

Yep, wyo, id, and mt, take care of their residents the best…

 

[Mojave]

Exactly. The point creep I saw in Co this year alone in some units would be hard to extrapolate over 5-10 years.

Yep, wyo, id, and mt, take care of their residents the best…

Actually this isn't really true. Wyomings problem is that they don't reserve enough resident tags. They did right by their residents by cutting the sheep, moose and goat resource in half.

 

[Hnthrdr]

Actually this isn't really true. Wyomings problem is that they don't reserve enough resident tags. They did right by their residents by cutting the sheep, moose and goat resource in half.

How is it not true? How can we know what a general elk tag will be in 5-10 years in say wyoming? Heck it wasn’t 7 years ago that I bought leftover Wyoming tags for 0 points… now guaranteed draw is 4-5 points for general season?

 

[Maverick1]

Used to be relatively easy to plan ahead several years. Those days are gone due to several factors.

The reality today is low drawing odds and likely changes to the draw systems in the next couple of years make planning ahead more than a year or two kind of futile.

Said differently: You are wasting your time. Kind of like posting on any of the threads about point creep, wilderness areas, tag allocations, or point application strategies. Oh, wait, that’s what I’m doing right here! ROFLMAO.