onX research tool vs GOHUNT for draw odds

[MTtrout]

I have onX elite and have been messing around with their research tool for a group pronghorn hunt in WY next year. I’m finding it helpful but also wondering what GOHUNT offers. For those that have used both, do you find them similar enough with no glaring differences between filtering options, layers, and such? I read a previous post saying that their draw odds will vary depending on how they run statistics, which I understand. Right now I’m only interested in the draw odds application of their apps and not mapping.

PM’s are welcome as I have some more specific questions, if helpful.

 

[wapitibob]

There is no reason what so ever to pay anybody for WY Pronghorn odds, the odds are provided by the dept and they are straight forward. You can look at the PP odds and the random odds and see right where you fit in.
NM, AZ, UT, may be worth it because of the way those draws work. That said, I have access to both and can tell you there is a difference between them when looking at AZ in particular. Also, Gohunt removed their "predicted" odds for AZ this year, showing just last years odds that they calculate.

 

[MTtrout]

Thanks. I used to do just that. Was just wondering if there was anything I was missing.

 

[Kodiak06]

States offer draw odds for FREE... All the ones I check even show number of apps by points and choices by number. With that said, I prefer good OTC hunts

 

[TheSillyGoose]

There is no reason what so ever to pay anybody for WY Pronghorn odds, the odds are provided by the dept and they are straight forward. You can look at the PP odds and the random odds and see right where you fit in.
NM, AZ, UT, may be worth it because of the way those draws work. That said, I have access to both and can tell you there is a difference between them when looking at AZ in particular. Also, Gohunt removed their "predicted" odds for AZ this year, showing just last years odds that they calculate.

I don't know what GoHunt actually does to calculate this. I'm sure everyone has their own formula. I've messed around with it and built trends over 5 - 6 years for point creep and then add that to point minimums for each hunt to build "projections" but even then it's never a sure thing.

 

[wapitibob]

I don't know what GoHunt actually does to calculate this. I'm sure everyone has their own formula. I've messed around with it and built trends over 5 - 6 years for point creep and then add that to point minimums for each hunt to build "projections" but even then it's never a sure thing.

For AZ, Gohunt just runs a monte carlo simulated draw a bunch of times to get a better bell curve. Last I knew, AZ would not sell the database so unless that has changed, I don't know how they're coming up with their random numbers for the simulation.

 

[il_cop]

As stated, you can find everything yourself for free and make some informed assumptions based on publically available historic draw data.
No company has magic draw odds formula, it's all a scientific guess you can do yourself.

If you're inclined, Gemini or other AI services can help do the math for you or get you close enough for some level of confidence.