GoHunt Predictive Draw Odds High Point Creep in WY

[djewell87]

I've seen a lot of posts about whether or not the predictive draw odds are accurate. I didn't really pay much attention to them, but I'm trying to decide on some units in Southern WY for this year and the predictive draw odds show pretty high point creep on everything that I had narrowed down. I figured a point or two buffer when looking at units, but this shows 2 to 3 point units on last years draw are 6 and 7 points this year for the predictive. Maybe I'm missing something with tag allocations or something, but that seems like a pretty good jump for those units. What are your thoughts on the predictive odds?

 

[Nickziegler]

I think most units have averaged .5 a year for creep since I have put in. Im sitting on 12 points for lope and always thought to chase a trophy unit. Im there now but plan to split with a good buddy that just retired and hunt the original unit I wanted to hunt. Pending wjat the draw does this year

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[djewell87]

I'm looking at numbers for the Special, which might be why some units have a larger swing. I'm not sure.

 

[satchamo]

Nothing can predict creep with 100% accuracy. That said - Gohunts predictive odds are about the best option available to us…. I just wouldn’t get mad at them if they’re wrong

 

[CMF]

So many variables.
If there are very few tags for a hunt and a ton of people with high points, you could see big jumps from year to year. Colorado is a good example. Tons of people with 15-20 points realize they are chasing hunts they can't draw. A handful of them decide to apply for an 8 point unit, and boom, it goes up several points.

 

[Yoteassasin]

I feel like I’m a broken record on this one . It is wildly simple to look at the stats from the state . Have you looked at the actual info ?
It’s 8th grade pre algebra level math so if you can’t do that maybe stick to no hunt or whatever you call it .

 

[TheTone]

Maybe they are thinking with the coming increase in pt cost that more people are going to be trying to get out?

 

[Rich M]

I feel like I’m a broken record on this one . It is wildly simple to look at the stats from the state . Have you looked at the actual info ?
It’s 8th grade pre algebra level math so if you can’t do that maybe stick to no hunt or whatever you call it .

Every year it goes up.

4 yrs in a row i had enough points to draw and each time ended up 1 or 2 points shy of drawing each year. Said screw it and went guided, life is to short to chase point creep.

Was looking at the previous year’s successful draw points, the points all folks applying had, and going w that but each year higher point folks would drop out of the sky. Those folks sure change the game.

 

[djewell87]

I feel like I’m a broken record on this one . It is wildly simple to look at the stats from the state . Have you looked at the actual info ?
It’s 8th grade pre algebra level math so if you can’t do that maybe stick to no hunt or whatever you call it .

Yeah, I've looked at the stats from Wyoming. The GoHunt predictive odds on some units show a massive jump that doesn't corelate with point creep seen in historical data for the same hunts. I'm just curious about the sudden large increase in some of these units for the predictive odds. I'm sure that they are looking at some data point that I am missing. It just seemed way off for some hunts. I have only been looking at the data for the special draw, so maybe with it being a smaller pool it can swing more easily. I know that you can't predict what will actually happen, but its got me questioning my plans for this year.

 

[djewell87]

Maybe they are thinking with the coming increase in pt cost that more people are going to be trying to get out?

That could definitely be what it is.

Every year it goes up.

4 yrs in a row i had enough points to draw and each time ended up 1 or 2 points shy of drawing each year. Said screw it and went guided, life is to short to chase point creep.

Was looking at the previous year’s successful draw points, the points all folks applying had, and going w that but each year higher point folks would drop out of the sky. Those folks sure change the game.

Yeah, that's impossible to predict. I guess they could be looking at point values of applications in the past and averaging that in potentially.

 

[Jethro]

Yeah, I've looked at the stats from Wyoming. The GoHunt predictive odds on some units show a massive jump that doesn't corelate with point creep seen in historical data for the same hunts. I'm just curious about the sudden large increase in some of these units for the predictive odds. I'm sure that they are looking at some data point that I am missing. It just seemed way off for some hunts. I have only been looking at the data for the special draw, so maybe with it being a smaller pool it can swing more easily. I know that you can't predict what will actually happen, but its got me questioning my plans for this year.

If you’ve studied stats that closely, then your guess is as good as theirs.

 

[JFK]

Total people participating in point buying and the average point accumulation of each participant for each species would surely have a correlation to point creep.

 

[longtail]

Just curious - What does GoHunt say the predictive odds are for the 3 General areas?