onX Draw Odds feature

[robby denning]

Hey guys, I got this a few weeks ago. Seems like you don't have to have a membership to use it as I'm navigating without being logged in (someone correct me if I'm wrong). I'm on my PC right now. Looks like it's just linking us with the State's websites, but way easier than trying to find the links on State's websites if you ask me. Anyone used it in the mobile app? Doesn't look like all the states are on there yet, I just see 4 western states.


onX Draw Odds Calculator.

Our newest free feature allows hunters to gauge their odds by weighting the following:

State (where you will be applying) Residency
Species
Weapon
Preference points

Enter in the data and let us do the math; the onX Draw Odds Calculator will give you a calculated percentage of your odds to actually draw the tag.

And what happens when you actually draw? Start planning (onX Web Map lets you e-scout from the comfort of your computer), plotting and getting excited for the season. It’s going to be here before you know it.

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[realunlucky]

I'm not a subscriber and got it to work for me. Pretty awesome feature that's free

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[Trial153]

All these free or discounted locations for odds has to be taking a toll on the premium services like go hunt.
Top rut for example is fraction of cost and really is user friendly.
I am an on X member as well and this seems to be a decent basic feature to add value to their service


The Premium services better figure out a way to add some value or they will be finding themselves on the downslope .

 

[Glendon Mullins]

Nice!!

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[deadwolf]

Can’t trust anything you post today Robby!!


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[OG DramaLlama]

All these free or discounted locations for odds has to be taking a toll on the premium services like go hunt.
Top rut for example is fraction of cost and really is user friendly.
I am an on X member as well and this seems to be a decent basic feature to add value to their service


The Premium services better figure out a way to add some value or they will be finding themselves on the downslope .

I am in agreement. Have been a goHunt subscriber for three years as I put in most western states. As this information is starting to become more and more reliable and cost effective it is going to be hard to justify that membership.

This was super easy to access. Has anyone crosschecked with other sources to verify yet.


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[pods8 (Rugged Stitching)]

Anyone else notice the data set is wrong for hunts? Example: 2018 non-rez wyoming antelope regular 0pt says unit 107 is 12% odds, yet if you look at the published draw report from the state that drew out at 6 points. That seems like a rather huge discrepancy.

 

[ShortMountain91]

Compared onX to gohunt for the elk tag I drew this year and they are different. Gohunt probably uses a more intricate formula but is it $150 better? Got me thinking

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[wapitibob]

Last time I checked, OnX was calculating simple odds; apps vs tags.

 

[cbarrie]

I’m going to have to give this a try. Seems pretty darn slick.

 

[Ndbowhunter]

Onx draw odds are not correct..

 

[widnert]

How does anyone know whether or not any of the draw-odds being published or calculated are actually correct? By GoHunt or anyone else for that matter? Unless you have the raw data and do it yourself.

It seems like a nice alternative to the other options out there and - no extra cost.

 

[pods8 (Rugged Stitching)]

How does anyone know whether or not any of the draw-odds being published or calculated are actually correct? By GoHunt or anyone else for that matter? Unless you have the raw data and do it yourself.

It seems like a nice alternative to the other options out there and - no extra cost.

In the above example the raw data is on the WY site and the result that Onx was listing was grossly incorrect. It certainly would be a nice alternative if it was in anyway close to accurate but its just flat out not for the dataset I was looking at. Not sure if that is a fluke or a fundamental issue. You can't have a 12% odds of drawing at 0pt when the raw data said the tag drew out at 6pts, just doesn't happen, that's 0% all day long.

 

[pods8 (Rugged Stitching)]

Last time I checked, OnX was calculating simple odds; apps vs tags.

They have a selection for how many points to consider so that should on the tags that drew out >X points show 0% if you put in X points, but the selection I was looking at wasn't doing it.

 

[BuzzH]

In the above example the raw data is on the WY site and the result that Onx was listing was grossly incorrect. It certainly would be a nice alternative if it was in anyway close to accurate but its just flat out not for the dataset I was looking at. Not sure if that is a fluke or a fundamental issue. You can't have a 12% odds of drawing at 0pt when the raw data said the tag drew out at 6pts, just doesn't happen, that's 0% all day long.

Wrong, at 0 points the odds for a NR to draw 107 was 8.3% in the regular draw random...25 people applied for 3 tags.

All these types of services are just a way to get a quick idea...but nothing tops the raw data from the various GF agencies. What I want to know, is how many tags are available, how many points it takes to draw for sure, and how many people apply for the same tags as I do, and If I'm applying for a tag I have a chance at drawing.

Does it really matter if my odds are 8% VS 12%...not really, in particular if its a tag I want, in area I want to hunt. I'll apply regardless.

 

[pods8 (Rugged Stitching)]

Wrong, at 0 points the odds for a NR to draw 107 was 8.3% in the regular draw random...25 people applied for 3 tags.

All these types of services are just a way to get a quick idea...but nothing tops the raw data from the various GF agencies. What I want to know, is how many tags are available, how many points it takes to draw for sure, and how many people apply for the same tags as I do, and If I'm applying for a tag I have a chance at drawing.

Does it really matter if my odds are 8% VS 12%...not really, in particular if its a tag I want, in area I want to hunt. I'll apply regardless.

I forgot about the 25% allotment going to random, well that makes more sense now!

Yeah agreed on 8% vs 12% part. I was more having issue when I forgot about the random seeing anything over 0%. Thanks! Egg on face...

 

[BuzzH]

No worries.

I think the important take-away with all these odds calculators is to "trust but verify"...verification required more-so for some than others, IME.

 

[pods8 (Rugged Stitching)]

For sure, I just didn't even think it was in the right orbit at first. Now its far more useful in weeding out some stats to dive deeper on.

 

[Almostbackcountry]

Love the fact that onx is always coming out with some new feature, but draw odds don’t interest me as much as a 3d feature would like google earth.


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