NM Draw

[txgila]

Since NM has changed to two archery seasons for elk in certain units, does anyone have thoughts about how this will change the draw odds for those hunts? It seems like applicants who used to apply for the second archery elk season (September ~11-18) are most affected by the new model and need to decide whether to apply for the new first season (September 1-14) or second season (September 15-24). Do you think the majority of those previous second-season applicants will chose to apply for the first or second season under the new model?

On a separate note, I've always been somewhat confused by the NM draw process. Based on NMGF website explanation of the draw process, my understanding is that each application is assigned a random number, then one of the numbers is drawn as the starting point. That application is considered first, followed by the next application number, and so forth. Each applicant's three hunt choices are considered before moving on to the next application, and if tags are still available for any of the applicant's three hunt choices then the applicant gets a tag. I may be wrong about how the process works, but based on my understanding it seems that the order that an applicant lists hunt choices would not affect the applicant's overall odds of drawing a tag. In other words, suppose you are going to apply for hunts A, B, and C, and B has lower draw odds than A. Are your overall odds of drawing a tag affected by whether you apply with A or B as your first choice? I think the answer is no, but I may be misinterpreting the NM process (and if so, I'd appreciate some help understanding the process).

 

[LaGriz]

Here is my understanding of the process,

You are assigned a number on your application (lets say # 100) and you choices are 1-unit 16A rifle -#2 16B second Archery- and # 3 6B second archery. They will go to the 1st choice, then second, then 3rd. Makes sence to put a more resonable (talking odds here) selection as your 3rd choice. If you are instead applcation #400, you stand little choice of the drawing the higher demand tages in unit 16, as they most likely will be filled by the hunters who drew before you. However, you may have a shot at your third choice. I really like to hunt New Mexico and have had some good success there. With no preferance points my odds are the same as every other NR in the pool.

I fear I may die or have failing health before gaining enough points in some other states to draw a LE tag. Not a small thing when you must buy a licence (in some cases) and poney up some fairly steep fees just to get the points. This is not for the faint-of-heart or uncommited Elk/muledeer seeker. I have no children of my own, and have been putting in the overtime to afford this so far. I'ts far from cheap, I justify the expense because I enjoy the western hunting so much. I have meet some find people and made some friends over the years while enjoying the incredible only American pastime of public land hunting. I am truly blessed that I can still do this and often plan my year around my pending Elk or Mule deer hunts. I have been pushing my 12 year old Grandson to get his hunter safety so his Paw Paw can take him on his 1st big game hunt. A baseball star, his free time is in high demand and the hunter safety cource is not high on his mom and dads list of importance. Wish me luck with this quest and good luck in the draw to all!

LaGrizView attachment 24015View attachment 24015

 

[Beendare]

NM has split those hunt seasons up many years ago.

Easy to check the odds, its right there on their site. The good hunts are low single digit odds.....

 

[wapitibob]

Oregon is the only state I know of where the draw computer picks a random number and goes up from that number, all others start from zero and go up.
NM does look at all 3 choices before moving to the next applicant which is why you can't calculate accurate odds. Using first choice only will return better odds than you have and looking at all 3 pools will return odds worse than you have. Odds are poor either way but someone will draw those tags.