Like I said, it’s an estimate that relies on historical data. You can account for choices being left blank, etc., and guess at hunter numbers based on trends. The most difficult is when they add or remove hunts. Even though the actual draw is done once, if I want to estimate the percent likelihood of drawing with a set of 1st, 2nd, 3rd choices, I have to run the simulation a large number of times, with different simulated hunter populations each time. You are right that there are many bad ways to estimate odds, but the way I have found satisfies my needs and has been reliable. I believe it to be mathematically sound, and am happy to discuss the particulars of you are interested.
New Mexico tag strategy for nonresidents
- Thread starter Chris in TN
- Start date
The hunting has been almost completely commercialized in New Mexico now. Most of the big game tags go to land owner tags many of which can be used to hunt fed and state public lands as well as other ranches. The system was set up by outfitters and non-resident hunt clubs. There is a champion on the commission for youth hunts and champions on the commission for outfitters and hunt clubs. No champions on the commission for DIY residents and non-residents who can only get tags from the public draw. The 10% outfitters pool is just a “gimmick” to further reduce the number of tags in the public draw.
Something like 55-65% percent of all big-game tags go to outfitters and hunt clubs. Say 55% end up in the public draw, then take another 10% off the top that go to outfitters who book with non-residents. That’s why for some hunts in the outfitters pool the odds are like three to four times higher than for residents. There are a few leftover deer tags in units that are so devoid of deer they should not be hunted in the first place. In other words, the outfitters and hunt clubs won’t use those tags. A non-resident can hunt just about anything in NM if you plop down enough cash. Paying for a draw application and hunting license is like spending money on super lotto tickets.
Something like 55-65% percent of all big-game tags go to outfitters and hunt clubs. Say 55% end up in the public draw, then take another 10% off the top that go to outfitters who book with non-residents. That’s why for some hunts in the outfitters pool the odds are like three to four times higher than for residents. There are a few leftover deer tags in units that are so devoid of deer they should not be hunted in the first place. In other words, the outfitters and hunt clubs won’t use those tags. A non-resident can hunt just about anything in NM if you plop down enough cash. Paying for a draw application and hunting license is like spending money on super lotto tickets.
Actually historical data for how many put in for first choice, 2nd choice means nothing in NM. The applications are randomly selected. Since there are no preference points, each application processes the first choice, if no tag available then on to the 2nd choice, then to the third. Then it is on to the next application. I never put in for 4th and 5th choices. Obviously the hunt code with the lowest odds should be 1st, then next lowest odds second. The third choice is the highest odds. High Demand and Quality hunts are just “gimmicks” for the Dept. to charge more for the tags…
That means nothing in NM.
roadrunner
WKR
Incorrect. It absolutely does matter what the 1st and 2nd choices are if your strategy is to just draw a tag. The quicker a hunt "fills" up, the less likely you will draw. As hunt choices are assigned after the shuffle, your "odds" become increasingly worse.
Based on how many apply for a given hunt code, it will indicate how likely you can pull that hunt as applications are randomly stacked after the shuffle. The further your app is down the line, the less people you want choosing the hunt codes you pick as a 1st and 2nd choice.
Sorry but the math doesn’t lie…Now if they checked the first choice on an app and went to another app first choice then you could get some probability curve. Makes no sense to do that though.
The odds are derived by how many tags are in a hunt code. For 100 tags resident get 84 tags. Non-residents 6 tags , outfitters 10 tags. The odds are derived on how many non-residents apply for those 6 tags. Doesn’t matter which choice on the app has that hunt code to be successful. Now if your first choice has worse odds then your second choice, you are more likely to get your first choice before your second choice. Soooo, always choose your favorite hunts first.
Monte Carlo simulation
I may have done a bad job explaining my method, but it has a solid basis in established statistical methods. In short, my approach makes it possible to estimate draw odds by simulating the NM draw many times. Happy to answer specific questions.
I may have done a bad job explaining my method, but it has a solid basis in established statistical methods. In short, my approach makes it possible to estimate draw odds by simulating the NM draw many times. Happy to answer specific questions.
TheGrayRider
WKR
Will the Money Carlos simulation computer give the exact day when I will draw my nonresident New Mexico sheep tag?
Unfortunately, no. But you could use the Monte Carlo approach to get a better idea of your odds. Sheep are hard because there are so few tags. I use it mainly for deer and elk, which have much larger numbers.
CMF
WKR
Based on your simulator Is there any truth to what I mentioned earlier?(below) And if so, is it a quantifiable difference?
In that particular case, your overall odds of drawing would be determined by your third choice. I would put the 1 or 2% unit as first choice, the 35% as third choice, and maybe the 15% as second choice. This would balance trying for your dream hunt with better draw odds, and with an easy third choice you have a decent chance of going hunting.
CMF
WKR
The odds of drawing A tag can't be based solely on your last choice, right?
Let's say you're far down on the list, far enough that primo units (1-2%) are taken, but not so far down that all of the med tier units are taken. Maybe so far that even some of the 15% and 35% tag slot filled, but since things are random, that 25% draw odds happen to have an open slot.
To clarify, you're saying two apps with the following choices would have the same overall chance at drawing a tag:
1%, 2%, 35%
15%, 25%, 35%
let's just assume for trying to draw any tag, not necessarily a dream hunt.
Correct. While there’s always a possibility that the 25% unit could have a tag available after the 35% unit tags are all taken, it’s unlikely. For the same reason, I would not put two 25% units as second and third choice, because if your second choice is taken your third choice most likely will be as well. So your odds of getting any tag will be most strongly influenced by your choice that is most likely to be drawn.
I think about it like shooting at paper plates of different sizes that are all lined up, one behind the other. Your chances of getting any tag are based on the size of the biggest plate.
I think about it like shooting at paper plates of different sizes that are all lined up, one behind the other. Your chances of getting any tag are based on the size of the biggest plate.
CMF
WKR
Except that they aren't necessarily lined up....Sure, the 1% tag(small plate) surely covers the 35% big plate.
Let's say there are ten units, all with 25% draw odds. They don't fill simultaneously. If everyone is putting top or mid tier units as second choice, surely someone who puts a mid tier as a first has a better chance, right?
Could you stop this simulation you've created a quarter or halfway through and see an example of what units have tags left?
I don’t have the program set up to pause like that. Maybe it could be done, but I’d have to restructure some things. And you’re right; sometimes there would be good tags left when easier tags are all gone. When I have run it with choices of approximately equal difficulty as choices 2 and 3, the third choice is drawn only very rarely.
If you apply for mid tier and lower tier hunts, you have a better chance of drawing a tag. But since you get three choices, it doesn’t hurt to apply for a primo hunts as your first choice. For example, if you apply for the governor’s tag as first choice, a nice tier-2 unit as second choice, and an easy-to-draw cow hunt as a third choice, you have a small chance at a dream hunt, a reasonable chance at a great hunt, and a good chance at chasing cows.
If instead you applied for two mid-tier hunts as first and second choices, you have no chance at a dream hunt, a reasonable chance of a good hunt, and then a good chance at that cow hunt. Your overall odds of drawing a tag are the same. Your odds of drawing your second choice are low, because if you are high enough in the lottery to get a mid-tier hunt you’ll get your first choice. If you are too low to get your first choice then your second choice is likely taken. Could it happen? Yes. But you could have used your first choice to apply for something better.
In your example of ten equal units with 25% draw odds (where 4x as many hunters apply as there are tags), and you put three of them down as your choices. I have run similar scenarios and generally I’ll draw first choice about 20-25% of the time, then second and third choices get drawn maybe 1% of the time. This of course, is my observations of how my simulation behaves. It could be flawed. But it makes sense to me that choosing equal units does not improve your overall draw odds.
If you apply for mid tier and lower tier hunts, you have a better chance of drawing a tag. But since you get three choices, it doesn’t hurt to apply for a primo hunts as your first choice. For example, if you apply for the governor’s tag as first choice, a nice tier-2 unit as second choice, and an easy-to-draw cow hunt as a third choice, you have a small chance at a dream hunt, a reasonable chance at a great hunt, and a good chance at chasing cows.
If instead you applied for two mid-tier hunts as first and second choices, you have no chance at a dream hunt, a reasonable chance of a good hunt, and then a good chance at that cow hunt. Your overall odds of drawing a tag are the same. Your odds of drawing your second choice are low, because if you are high enough in the lottery to get a mid-tier hunt you’ll get your first choice. If you are too low to get your first choice then your second choice is likely taken. Could it happen? Yes. But you could have used your first choice to apply for something better.
In your example of ten equal units with 25% draw odds (where 4x as many hunters apply as there are tags), and you put three of them down as your choices. I have run similar scenarios and generally I’ll draw first choice about 20-25% of the time, then second and third choices get drawn maybe 1% of the time. This of course, is my observations of how my simulation behaves. It could be flawed. But it makes sense to me that choosing equal units does not improve your overall draw odds.
roadrunner
WKR
The NM application shuffle only happens once so an average cannot be taken after multiple runs.
As each tag is awarded for a hunt code, your chance of winning decreases each time for that hunt code. All choices for that hunt code act as an application for that hunt code because that many people are vying for that hunt. Each chance of winning a tag is dependent on the previous award event.
If your application is toward the bottom after the one time shuffle, you will likely lose.
Multiple runs in a simulation is meaningless as the winning outcome is completely dependent on where that application sits after one run (shuffle) that carries no weighting or preference.
This is why all anyone can really do is look at the likelihood of pulling a tag for a hunt code based on the combination of all the hunt choices for that hunt code which will be an average of the best chance at winning all the way down to the worse chance at winning.
The only thing ranking a hunt choice does on an application is choosing an order based on likelihood of how quickly that hunt will fill up based on its popularity.
Nickman123
FNG
- Joined
- Aug 18, 2023
- Messages
- 26
Don't know anything about NM but Arizona and Colorado both have really good programs for youths. Way better odds of drawing and way cheaper. It was over 10 yrs ago, but both my sons drew cow elk tags in Arizona on their first try. It was something like 5 or 10 dollars to apply, and $65 for the tag when they were successful
Similar threads
Featured Video
Latest Articles
- TT#64 Josh Boyd Elk Hunting Strategies for Every Season
- Aaron Davidson of Gunwerks
- TT#63 Dirk Durham’s Art of Elk Calling
- BIG Buck Stories with the Dirty Giants Podcast
- TT#62 Brian Barney Hunting Bulls without Calling
- Hoyt Alpha AX-2 SD Review
- Kuiu Kenai vs Outdoor Vitals Vario Hooded Jacket Review
- Hoyt RX-9 Ultra Review
- Hunting Vampire Bucks & Building an Optics Kit
- Darton Sequel ST2 35 Review