Like I said, it’s an estimate that relies on historical data. You can account for choices being left blank, etc., and guess at hunter numbers based on trends. The most difficult is when they add or remove hunts. Even though the actual draw is done once, if I want to estimate the percent likelihood of drawing with a set of 1st, 2nd, 3rd choices, I have to run the simulation a large number of times, with different simulated hunter populations each time. You are right that there are many bad ways to estimate odds, but the way I have found satisfies my needs and has been reliable. I believe it to be mathematically sound, and am happy to discuss the particulars of you are interested.
New Mexico tag strategy for nonresidents
- Thread starter Chris in TN
- Start date
The hunting has been almost completely commercialized in New Mexico now. Most of the big game tags go to land owner tags many of which can be used to hunt fed and state public lands as well as other ranches. The system was set up by outfitters and non-resident hunt clubs. There is a champion on the commission for youth hunts and champions on the commission for outfitters and hunt clubs. No champions on the commission for DIY residents and non-residents who can only get tags from the public draw. The 10% outfitters pool is just a “gimmick” to further reduce the number of tags in the public draw.
Something like 55-65% percent of all big-game tags go to outfitters and hunt clubs. Say 55% end up in the public draw, then take another 10% off the top that go to outfitters who book with non-residents. That’s why for some hunts in the outfitters pool the odds are like three to four times higher than for residents. There are a few leftover deer tags in units that are so devoid of deer they should not be hunted in the first place. In other words, the outfitters and hunt clubs won’t use those tags. A non-resident can hunt just about anything in NM if you plop down enough cash. Paying for a draw application and hunting license is like spending money on super lotto tickets.
Something like 55-65% percent of all big-game tags go to outfitters and hunt clubs. Say 55% end up in the public draw, then take another 10% off the top that go to outfitters who book with non-residents. That’s why for some hunts in the outfitters pool the odds are like three to four times higher than for residents. There are a few leftover deer tags in units that are so devoid of deer they should not be hunted in the first place. In other words, the outfitters and hunt clubs won’t use those tags. A non-resident can hunt just about anything in NM if you plop down enough cash. Paying for a draw application and hunting license is like spending money on super lotto tickets.
Actually historical data for how many put in for first choice, 2nd choice means nothing in NM. The applications are randomly selected. Since there are no preference points, each application processes the first choice, if no tag available then on to the 2nd choice, then to the third. Then it is on to the next application. I never put in for 4th and 5th choices. Obviously the hunt code with the lowest odds should be 1st, then next lowest odds second. The third choice is the highest odds. High Demand and Quality hunts are just “gimmicks” for the Dept. to charge more for the tags…
That means nothing in NM.
roadrunner
WKR
Incorrect. It absolutely does matter what the 1st and 2nd choices are if your strategy is to just draw a tag. The quicker a hunt "fills" up, the less likely you will draw. As hunt choices are assigned after the shuffle, your "odds" become increasingly worse.
Based on how many apply for a given hunt code, it will indicate how likely you can pull that hunt as applications are randomly stacked after the shuffle. The further your app is down the line, the less people you want choosing the hunt codes you pick as a 1st and 2nd choice.
Sorry but the math doesn’t lie…Now if they checked the first choice on an app and went to another app first choice then you could get some probability curve. Makes no sense to do that though.
The odds are derived by how many tags are in a hunt code. For 100 tags resident get 84 tags. Non-residents 6 tags , outfitters 10 tags. The odds are derived on how many non-residents apply for those 6 tags. Doesn’t matter which choice on the app has that hunt code to be successful. Now if your first choice has worse odds then your second choice, you are more likely to get your first choice before your second choice. Soooo, always choose your favorite hunts first.
Monte Carlo simulation
I may have done a bad job explaining my method, but it has a solid basis in established statistical methods. In short, my approach makes it possible to estimate draw odds by simulating the NM draw many times. Happy to answer specific questions.
I may have done a bad job explaining my method, but it has a solid basis in established statistical methods. In short, my approach makes it possible to estimate draw odds by simulating the NM draw many times. Happy to answer specific questions.
TheGrayRider
WKR
Will the Money Carlos simulation computer give the exact day when I will draw my nonresident New Mexico sheep tag?
Unfortunately, no. But you could use the Monte Carlo approach to get a better idea of your odds. Sheep are hard because there are so few tags. I use it mainly for deer and elk, which have much larger numbers.
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