Alright, let’s slow this down for a minute and talk about something that’s been rattling around in my head. Picture this: I’m just a flatlander, born and raised east of the Mississippi. Where I come from, the ground’s not just flat—it’s soft, forgiving. Nothing like the rugged terrain you folks out west deal with. Now, I’ve been trying to wrap my head around this big game draw system—trying to crack the code, you know? And me, being a little bit of a numbers guy—okay, maybe a numbers nerd if I’m being honest—I started wondering: what if there’s a better way to get a feel for this?
They say experience is the best teacher, right? But who’s got the time—or the tags—to rack up decades of draw experience? So I thought, why not create a way to fast-track that? I'm not a program writer or coder or whatever you call it. I'm just a guy who spends too much time obsessing about this stuff. What if I could run a simulation—multiple draws, over and over—until the patterns start showing themselves and somehow make sense of what these "draw odds" really mean? That’s where this idea came from. My approach was if I made these three selections, and simulated the draw, how many times would I win. Here's something I didn't expect. If the odds are 4%, the simulation results weren't 4 times out of 100. It's astonishing.
I took past draw data—real numbers, real outcomes—and built something that creates a random pool of applicants, just like the real thing and with the same strategies and tendencies. Then it adds your choices into the mix and runs the draw as many times as you want. One simulation? Sure. Ten? Why not. A hundred? A thousand? Now we’re talking.
And here’s the kicker—it’s built to mimic how the New Mexico Big Game draw actually works. Random sequence, choice-based, the whole deal. And you can run it for any animal in the draw, any hunt code, any weapon, and any category of resident, non-resident, or outfitter. In the end it's spits out a spreadsheet that gives some interesting information. I’ve got some examples here, some screenshots to show you what it looks like in action. I did all this as a personal tool, but I’m even kicking around the idea of putting this online, maybe a website where anyone can use it. But here’s where I need you—I’m not too proud to ask for help. What do you think? Is this something that’d be useful to you? Something worth digging into deeper? I’m all ears—lay it on me. Is there something here? Pick it apart. What makes you interested or skeptical?
They say experience is the best teacher, right? But who’s got the time—or the tags—to rack up decades of draw experience? So I thought, why not create a way to fast-track that? I'm not a program writer or coder or whatever you call it. I'm just a guy who spends too much time obsessing about this stuff. What if I could run a simulation—multiple draws, over and over—until the patterns start showing themselves and somehow make sense of what these "draw odds" really mean? That’s where this idea came from. My approach was if I made these three selections, and simulated the draw, how many times would I win. Here's something I didn't expect. If the odds are 4%, the simulation results weren't 4 times out of 100. It's astonishing.
I took past draw data—real numbers, real outcomes—and built something that creates a random pool of applicants, just like the real thing and with the same strategies and tendencies. Then it adds your choices into the mix and runs the draw as many times as you want. One simulation? Sure. Ten? Why not. A hundred? A thousand? Now we’re talking.
And here’s the kicker—it’s built to mimic how the New Mexico Big Game draw actually works. Random sequence, choice-based, the whole deal. And you can run it for any animal in the draw, any hunt code, any weapon, and any category of resident, non-resident, or outfitter. In the end it's spits out a spreadsheet that gives some interesting information. I’ve got some examples here, some screenshots to show you what it looks like in action. I did all this as a personal tool, but I’m even kicking around the idea of putting this online, maybe a website where anyone can use it. But here’s where I need you—I’m not too proud to ask for help. What do you think? Is this something that’d be useful to you? Something worth digging into deeper? I’m all ears—lay it on me. Is there something here? Pick it apart. What makes you interested or skeptical?
