New GoHunt Predictive Odds

[thegoosano]

Looked around at the new predictive odds for Colorado. Really surprised me on the prediction for my go to deer unit, they’re touting 95% confidence levels which is a bold claim! Very interested to see the odds report for next year and look back at accuracy.

 

[Svivian]

Looked around at the new predictive odds for Colorado. Really surprised me on the prediction for my go to deer unit, they’re touting 95% confidence levels which is a bold claim! Very interested to see the odds report for next year and look back at accuracy.

I’m surprised it’s taken this long. They have been off for a few years because they never accounted for point creep.

They should have enough years of data now to be accurate on predicting point creep.

 

[thegoosano]

I’m surprised it’s taken this long. They have been off for a few years because they never accounted for point creep.

They should have enough years of data now to be accurate on predicting point creep.

They’ve never shown future odds in the past, just the last 5yrs odds. This is the first time they’ve listed what to expect for a future draw based on historical data and I’m sure bunch of other black magic formula secret sauce. Pretty impressive to see a company take this leap, never seen a future odd predictor before.


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[cnelk]

AI at its finest

 

[NealS02]

I’ve had a chance to play around with it a little bit and find it very interesting. There was a unit I thought was going to be more heavily impacted by point creep this year (which it still could) and it predicts I have 100% chance. Another unit I felt I may be able to draw was low odds. I’m with you guys and surprised nobody has done it sooner, but as usual GoHunt continues to impress me.

 

[wapitibob]

Oregontags has had predictive odds. He's pretty accurate but has been at it a long time.

 

[cnelk]

You want predictive data?

Check out the Death Clock.
Then you’ll know how many hunts you have left.

The Death Clock

Death Clock. Have you ever asked yourself 'when will I die?', use our advanced life expectancy calculator in combination with ai to accurately predict your death date and receive your own death countdown clock.

www.death-clock.org

 

[IDVortex]

You want predictive data?

Check out the Death Clock.
Then you’ll know how many hunts you have left.

The Death Clock

Death Clock. Have you ever asked yourself 'when will I die?', use our advanced life expectancy calculator in combination with ai to accurately predict your death date and receive your own death countdown clock.

www.death-clock.org

And I was hoping of going by the age of 40, but I'm still stuck until I'm 81. Damn.

 

[wapitibob]

You want predictive data?

Check out the Death Clock.
Then you’ll know how many hunts you have left.

The Death Clock

Death Clock. Have you ever asked yourself 'when will I die?', use our advanced life expectancy calculator in combination with ai to accurately predict your death date and receive your own death countdown clock.

www.death-clock.org

"You will live to be 94 years, 9 months and 6 days old!"

Hot Damn! I'm gonna get thru all these E/D/A points after all.

 

[cnelk]

My Death Clock said I have almost 30 years to the day left.

Maybe I’ll get more PPs

 

[thegoosano]

59yrs left for me, gonna need more wall space for mounts, I’ll go tell the wife.


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[hunthikecamp]

Looked around at the new predictive odds for Colorado. Really surprised me on the prediction for my go to deer unit, they’re touting 95% confidence levels which is a bold claim! Very interested to see the odds report for next year and look back at accuracy.

It's showing 100% for my target tag this year so we'll see! I'll definitely be comparing predicted vs actual when the #s come out to see how accurate they are. Haha

 

[Jstumbaugh]

This is interesting. I have a unit I am looking at that based on historical data I should be able to draw this year as it was 100% last year. They are predicting 0% chance. Maybe reverse psychology will keep others from applying and I'll still get it?

 

[Tilzbow]

I’ve been a Go Hunt user for a while and it seems they continue to expand their offerings and improve their product. The more I use Go Hunt the more features I find that I didn’t know existed. I’ve played around with the predictive odds for Utah elk and it’s definitely interesting and I’ll see how well it works if I don’t draw a tag in AZ or NM and actually apply for elk in UT.

OnX should take notice as they struggle to provide a useable product!

I also use GAIA GPS and switched to them years ago because OnX GPS wasn’t really good when it first came out 15 or so years ago. I was also a faithful Top Rut user and preferred it over Go Hunt since it always seemed the Top Rut odds were more accurate but I dropped Top Rut when they got absorbed by OnX due to my past experiences with OnX. The draw odds in Go Hunt also seem to be way more accurate now than they were 5-10 years ago.

Last year I was considering switching to OnX + Top Rut because it seemed OnX had really improved over the last 10 years and passed GAIA for hunting specific features but with all the horrible reviews on the OnX draw odds and the continued innovations at Go Hunt I’ll continue to stick with the Go Hunt and GAIA even though that combination is more expensive.

 

[hunthikecamp]

I’ve been a Go Hunt user for a while and it seems they continue to expand their offerings and improve their product. The more I use Go Hunt the more features I find that I didn’t know existed. I’ve played around with the predictive odds for Utah elk and it’s definitely interesting and I’ll see how well it works if I don’t draw a tag in AZ or NM and actually apply for elk in UT.

OnX should take notice as they struggle to provide a useable product!

I also use GAIA GPS and switched to them years ago because OnX GPS wasn’t really good when it first came out 15 or so years ago. I was also a faithful Top Rut user and preferred it over Go Hunt since it always seemed the Top Rut odds were more accurate but I dropped Top Rut when they got absorbed by OnX due to my past experiences with OnX. The draw odds in Go Hunt also seem to be way more accurate now than they were 5-10 years ago.

Last year I was considering switching to OnX + Top Rut because it seemed OnX had really improved over the last 10 years and passed GAIA for hunting specific features but with all the horrible reviews on the OnX draw odds and the continued innovations at Go Hunt I’ll continue to stick with the Go Hunt and GAIA even though that combination is more expensive.

Interesting, I had never heard of Gaia when I got in initially and started out with OnX and have developed the familiarity there.

So you think OnX has caught up to/passed Gaia in terms of strictly mapping& GPS? I'm not in any hurry to switch but always curious what's out there.

 

[LFC911]

My Death Clock said I have almost 30 years to the day left.

Maybe I’ll get more PPs

29 more September's and it says I'm going to die Monday, 28th September 2054, I'm guessing I'll be on an elk hunt!

 

[willfrye027]

I don’t understand how they’re predicting these odds with 95% confidence without knowing the 2025 tag numbers

 

[hunthikecamp]

I don’t understand how they’re predicting these odds with 95% confidence without knowing the 2025 tag numbers

That didn't even click until you said it but yeah wth...and even with tag numbers 95% seems sporty and very Reliant on the assumption that folks just apply for the same thing year to year.

 

[Lil-Rokslider]

GoHunt is the first big company to offer predictive odds like this. I believe that because of this, they will actually influence the draw odds somewhat significantly by publishing "predictive odds". They may have been 95% accurate had they not published their predictions.

I would bet that units predicted to have at least 25% predicted odds of drawing will experience a point creep jump larger than previous years trends.

Conversely, I've seen a few units that they predict to have a larger point creep jump than previous years trends, and lower odds than I would've thought. This may dissuade folks from applying and actually help with the point creep!

Ironically, GoHunt jumping into the game of predictive odds may actually be the reason that they're predictive odds aren't as accurate as they hope.

 

[kwackkillncrew]

point system seems exhausting and expensive.