New Alaska Sheep Regulations

[PA 5-0]

Several posts have mentioned and referenced success rates/percent, NR vs Resident. From my extensive reading on this forum, other forums and AK F&G meeting notes and reports, the "success rate" figure can be significantly skewed by a couple factors. One is lots of residents buying tags but never hunting sheep that year, which puts them in the "unsuccessful" column. I gotta think NRs who pay for a hunt, and don't hunt, is a very low percent. I've read data on a significant number of "unsuccessful" residents hunting 3 days or less in a year for sheep, maybe meaning they put in a casual weekend that season. Christ, a weekend didn't even get me to spike camp. NR hunts are usually 10 days.

As for NR's shooting sheep, IMO, the very nature of that crazy physical hunt plays into the NR success rates. I would say 90% of NRs who shell out $20K+, soup to nuts, to pull off that hunt are gonna be ALL IN. They are training hard for a year or more. They're starving themselves to lose weight. They send their families on summer vacations while they work extra hours and train. They work extra shifts to buy the lightest gear because a lighter pack may keep them in the game for all 10 days of their hunt. They bank two weeks of vaca time to travel to AK, hunt 10 days, then travel home. All this effort, which their friends and family call insanity, to prepare for a "once in lifetime" adventure.

I ask the AK residents on here: as a general opinion, the friends of yours that sheep hunt, do they commit to the hunt as I've described a NR above ?? And do you think it affects the success rates??

 

[Yellowknife]

..... the "success rate" figure can be significantly skewed by a couple factors. One is lots of residents buying tags but never hunting sheep that year, which puts them in the "unsuccessful" column.

Not true. We have a "did not hunt" box on our report cards, so guys that pick up tags (they are free, so we don't buy them) but don't hunt, don't get counted.

I've read data on a significant number of "unsuccessful" residents hunting 3 days or less in a year for sheep, maybe meaning they put in a casual weekend that season. Christ, a weekend didn't even get me to spike camp. NR hunts are usually 10 days.

There isn't a huge difference between NR and Resident average days in the field, although that does play into it. F&G did an extensive report card on sheep trends last year. Generally speaking hunter effort for Res is between 5-6 days in the field, and effort for NR is around 7 days. No doubt a few long weekend hunts drag the average down. I've done that myself when time was short. But we also have guys that commit to very extended trips 7-10 days aren't at all uncommon either.

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/regulations/regprocess/gameboard/sheepcomm/pdfs/2summary.pdf

Unsuccessful hunters spend more time in the field and are the real measure of the level of commitment. I took a quick look at the 2015 F&G data. The average for unsuccessful resident hunters was 6.1 days last year. Over 400 hunters spent 7 or more days in the field without ever harvesting a sheep. Roughly 260 were only out there 3 days or less (unsuccessfully). That 260 no doubt skewed the averages a bit, but overall I see plenty of resident commitment in those numbers.

As for NR's shooting sheep, IMO, the very nature of that crazy physical hunt plays into the NR success rates. I would say 90% of NRs who shell out $20K+, soup to nuts, to pull off that hunt are gonna be ALL IN. They are training hard for a year or more. They're starving themselves to lose weight. They send their families on summer vacations while they work extra hours and train. They work extra shifts to buy the lightest gear because a lighter pack may keep them in the game for all 10 days of their hunt. They bank two weeks of vaca time to travel to AK, hunt 10 days, then travel home. All this effort, which their friends and family call insanity, to prepare for a "once in lifetime" adventure.

I ask the AK residents on here: as a general opinion, the friends of yours that sheep hunt, do they commit to the hunt as I've described a NR above ?? And do you think it affects the success rates??

I've met a number of NR sheep hunters headed in and out of the field. I'd say that the majority I've talked too are successful businessmen in their 50's who now have the money and time to spend doing dream trips. Most I've met are a little overweight and quite a few are from back east and have little mountain experience. While there is certainly a level of commitment involved and a few guys that show up super fit... that number is WAY less than 90%.

While the level of commitment certainly plays a part, there are other things that have a larger effect IMO. A large percentage of resident sheep hunters are hunting sheep for the first or second time. The number of "annual" sheep hunters is very low. With the typical steep learning curve of a new area and species, success rates are bound to be lower.

Another factor is that most resident sheep hunters hunt in pairs, with both partners holding a tag. Once a sheep is harvested however, getting the meat out becomes of prime importance and the second hunter will only rarely fill his/her tag on the same trip. This also depresses the average. A guide/client pair shoots a sheep, that is 100% success for the party. A resident/resident pair shoots a sheep, that is only 50% success for the party.

 

[Broomd]

As someone who has been on both sides of this issue, NO THE RESIDENTS DO NOT PUT IN THE SAME EFFORT.

I know many residents that do, they are tough guys that go all out; but as I've said before, $20K laid down for the dall hunt of a lifetime makes for a lot of NR fortitude and preparedness. IT IN A NUTSHELL.

Another factor is that most resident sheep hunters hunt in pairs, with both partners holding a tag. Once a sheep is harvested however, getting the meat out becomes of prime importance and the second hunter will only rarely fill his/her tag on the same trip. This also depresses the average. A guide/client pair shoots a sheep, that is 100% success for the party. A resident/resident pair shoots a sheep, that is only 50% success for the party.

GOLD STAR...this is very true. If one of those resident hunters wants to pay $20K for a sherpa "guide" to pack that extra sheep meat, they can do that, but 100% won't.

 

[PA 5-0]

Yellowknife and Broomd, appreciate the info Brothers. Dan

 

[Matt W.]

I know a dozen or more fellow Alaskan sheep hunters personally. Thats not bragging, I just live here and try to meet as many as I can. They all work hard, it's not a weekend hunt sort of deal. In my opinion what makes a hunter successful is knowing where the rams are BEFORE you hit the trail. Guides work that all summer, scouting is their job. Only a few residents can scout that much. I've only met 2, maybe 3, residents who just "sorta" sheep hunted. It's an all in thing. Those who consistently kill rams, know the area they are hunting. Either after years of hunting or lots of flying. My sample size is certainly not representative of the whole, but it's another thing to consider..

 

[mtnclimber]

I know a dozen or more fellow Alaskan sheep hunters personally. Thats not bragging, I just live here and try to meet as many as I can. They all work hard, it's not a weekend hunt sort of deal. In my opinion what makes a hunter successful is knowing where the rams are BEFORE you hit the trail. Guides work that all summer, scouting is their job. Only a few residents can scout that much. I've only met 2, maybe 3, residents who just "sorta" sheep hunted. It's an all in thing. Those who consistently kill rams, know the area they are hunting. Either after years of hunting or lots of flying. My sample size is certainly not representative of the whole, but it's another thing to consider..

Agree agree agree

 

[Floorguy]

Not true. We have a "did not hunt" box on our report cards, so guys that pick up tags (they are free, so we don't buy them) but don't hunt, don't get counted.

One could make the argument that unsuccessful hunters could be under reported as checking the did not hunt box is faster than filling out the information on where, when, transportation etc. when filing online.

 

[adventure907]

As someone who has been on both sides of this issue, NO THE RESIDENTS DO NOT PUT IN THE SAME EFFORT.

I know many residents that do, they are tough guys that go all out; but as I've said before, $20K laid down for the dall hunt of a lifetime makes for a lot of NR fortitude and preparedness. IT IN A NUTSHELL.



GOLD STAR...this is very true. If one of those resident hunters wants to pay $20K for a sherpa "guide" to pack that extra sheep meat, they can do that, but 100% won't.

I have guided multiple resident sheep hunters. It does happen, just saying.

 

[Broomd]

I have guided multiple resident sheep hunters. It does happen, just saying.

I realize that, some residents do go that route. I know of a few that utilized a guide for Tok tags, Chugach, etc, to get 'er done.

 

[Bambistew]

IMO we have three types of resident sheep hunters (insert "any" species).

You have the guys that are seasoned killers, they know how to hunt animals, know the terrain to find them, and know their areas and sheep habits well. They also have multiple places they can hunt each fall, spend countless hours researching, etc etc. Their success rate is 50% or a bit better. Some hunt more than one time for sheep each year, and usually, either they and/or their partner kill a ram each year. Sheep hunting is a priority for them, above all other game. They hunt at least every other year for sheep. They can compete with the guided hunters day in and day out, and are likely as successful. These guys make up maybe 1.5-2% of the resident sheep hunters... There are very, very few resident hunters who kill a sheep every year. ADFG only has data tracking an individual hunter for the last 10 years or so... according to that data, there was ONE sheep hunter out of 10,000 who has killed a sheep ever year in the last 10. If we look at a hunters who have hunted 4 or more times in the last 10 years and have a 50% success rate... we are looking at about 300 hunters out of 10,000 or about 3%.

The second group, which is the largest, made up of enthusiastic hunters, who have the desire to hunt, but lack either the knowledge, time, drive or funds to make sheep hunting a priority each year. They love the idea of killing a sheep more so than actually hunting them. These guys go one or two times and are done. Their success rate, ranges in the 15-18% range. The find out that the reward may not be worth the effort or money spent. They make up about 80% of all hunters. From the numbers about 60% of resident hunters are going on their first hunt each year, and about 20% are on their second hunt.

The final group is made up of hunters who really just want to hunt sheep, but rarely kill one, because the harvest is not that important to them. They hunt them each year or at least ever other year. I believe there are many types in this category, but the one thing they all have in common is the drive to go each fall, or at least every other fall. They may only have the time to go for a weekend, or a few days longer, they may just enjoy the thought of having a sheep tag in their pocket and being in the mountains, or they may have taken enough sheep for themselves and are holding out for something special. For what ever reason, they tend to go often, but rarely punch a tag. This makes up the remaining 18% of hunters.

To be honest I think you could swap out sheep with elk/deer/bear/etc for any of the categories above and see the same trend anywhere. Think of your friends, we all know someone who is either really lucky, or is more dedicated than we are, and are thus more successful. However they tend to make up such a small portion of the overall population that their success really is just a blip on the radar.

For NR hunters we have the same 3 categories above, however I think the percentages may change a bit on the "dedicated" end, but still heavily weighted around category 2. I'd guess maybe about a 10/80/10% split... What they lack in skill/knowledge/dedication/etc is generally made up with the guide's ability. Very few have been sheep hunting before (at least in AK), however hunting skill is hunting skill. Good or bad, we can't all be the star quarterback... IMO, this is the reason why the NR success rate is so high. They're usually being guided by a guy who is in the "elite" category above. If we didn't have a guide requirement, we'd see the NR success rate much lower than we see today, however I think it would probably still be higher than the resident success rate because I doubt many category 3 NR would come hunt. It takes dedication and $$$ to go on a sheep hunt regardless of where you live, but takes a heck of a lot more as a NR. Lets face it, $ is generally always a factor.

The BOG has mentioned in the past that resident hunters just can't compete with guided NR, and IMO they are right. The pool of "elite" NR hunters is skewed well beyond the average because of the guide requirement. In recent years we've seen a reduction in success by NR, which IMO is by and large a result of the increase of NOK coming to hunt. Guided NR have a success rate of about 80%, compared to unguided next of kin hunters, at about 40%. I think NOK success is higher than average resident due in part to their "kin" being either in catagory 1 or approaching it, but at a minimum they have the DRIVE to make it happen and aren't limited by the cost of a hunt.

The way I look at this, is that we have a discrepancy in success because we have an unfair advantage of means/methods of harvest. A guided NR competes on the same level as the elite resident hunter. Compare it to say, a rifle hunt for elk in September, or muledeer hunt in December. We don't hunt at that time of the year because it would be a slaughter. We can't hunt animals with a spotlight, we can't use airplanes to spot/land/pursue animals, etc etc. We have rules in place to keep the playing field somewhat level for he majority of ALL users. I see the guide requirement much the same. I would much rather see the requirement eliminated, and let any NR with the drive/desire to hunt be able to go, rather than only those who can afford it. I would honestly be happy with a cap on the current NR opportunity, if it meant that the guide requirement was eliminated. Since this is a pipe dream, the only logical solution is to reduce NR harvest to acceptable level for the public.

ADFG paid a lot of money for a sheep hunter survey a couple years ago. The survey result was that 88% of all resident hunters would like to see NR opportunity reduced to somewhere between 10-15%. If the poll was closer to the middle, even in the 60% range, I don't think we'd be having the same conversations, over and over. And I really think, if the harvest split between resident/NR was more reasonable at 70/30 or less vs 44/56 we wouldn't be here either. At the continued rate of increase, with no changes, we'll see NR harvest breach the 50% mark in the next 10 years. 30 years ago it was a 70/30 split... There is no other species, in any state (besides brown bears in AK) which has a similar skew. None. The reason? NR are limited in allocation, and/or means/methods are the same for everyone. While success rates can be higher for NRs in some instances, the overall harvest % is rarely much above the participation level %s. We should be managing for ALL types of hunters, not just those who are the most dedicated or affluent, and the majority (2/3rds min) of the resource should go to residents.

 

[Yellowknife]

Good summary of the hunter types Bambistew. I don't have the breakdown of the numbers you do, but generally I agree with your observations.

Yk

 

[BRWNBR]

Need to limit non res sheep. Sooooo make a early sheep season for youth with no airplane restrictions. Nice. Backwards.

Anyone think of just shortening non res sheep season to September?

 

[colonel00]

Anyone think of just shortening non res sheep season to September?

Wouldn't that hurt the guide industry in a similar fashion to making it a draw for NR? Perhaps I've already forgotten the reasons why they don't go to a draw for NR.

 

[BRWNBR]

Draw would make planning impossible for guides.
Short season would limit non res hunting time, guides could still plan. Residents would get time alone in the mtns without better hunters around.
Any restriction will hurt guides.

 

[TEmbry]

Any restriction will hurt guides.

This is the bottom line I think most are unwilling to admit. Somehow they found a restriction in NOK NR hunters that still doesn't hurt the guide industry, but IMO that did nothing but further anger the already upset resident hunters on this issue.

I am a newb to sheep hunting so I stay out of these political debates for the most part.

I do agree bumping NR back to September only would be an excellent compromise from the talks of a complete NR draw capped at 10%, although it would undeniably shorten an already short season of earning potential for hunting guides (squeezing sheep season over into what has traditionally been time to chase bears/moose/caribou).

 

[Maverick940]

This is the bottom line I think most are unwilling to admit. Somehow they found a restriction in NOK NR hunters that still doesn't hurt the guide industry, but IMO that did nothing but further anger the already upset resident hunters on this issue.

I am a newb to sheep hunting so I stay out of these political debates for the most part.

I do agree bumping NR back to September only would be an excellent compromise from the talks of a complete NR draw capped at 10%, although it would undeniably shorten an already short season of earning potential for hunting guides (squeezing sheep season over into what has traditionally been time to chase bears/moose/caribou).

Yeah, that'll never pass the Board process. You should of seen the fights over that issue when it went before the Board in the late 80's and early 90's. Vicious stuff. I can't even imagine how vicious those arguments would be, nowadays. Pushing the non-resident season into the first three weeks of September isn't going to get through the Board process.

 

[Jdog]

The handful of resident sheep hunters like myself train year round to stay ready. There is very little ramping up physically. I could pack up tomorrow and go if needed. But I only hang with sheep buds that take have a similar approach. My sheep circle is very small and those dudes stay ready--lifestyle of health n fitness.

And my buds have solid success rates.

I've done 7 DIY hunts in some heavily guided and hunted areas. I've taken legal Rams on 4 of those hunts and guided my brother to 2 as well.

I'm all for sound conservation and mgt practices to preserve the game but it seems this only helps the guides.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

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[adventure907]

I've done 7 DIY hunts in some heavily guided and hunted areas. I've taken legal Rams on 4 of those hunts and guided my brother to 2 as well.

I'm all for sound conservation and mgt practices to preserve the game but it seems this only helps the guides.

I fail to see how this "helps" the guides? What it does do, is reduce the number of people that blatantly abuse the system.

 

[TEmbry]

I fail to see how this "helps" the guides? What it does do, is reduce the number of people that blatantly abuse the system.

It helps the guides because Residents are becoming more and more displeased with the amount of pressure in the sheep mountains among the areas still able to be accessed (whether that be due to draw areas or simply non accessible areas without your own plane). I think the BOG felt pressure to do SOMETHING, and this is the only way possible to limit NR without hurting the guide industry.