MT General MD Tag Odds

[wind gypsy]

I typically end up with MT deer tags via the BG combo, never applied for just a deer tag or paid attention to odds but might do it next year.

I don't see that they've published 2020 odds so I was thinking about going in my stepdad who currently has 1 PP so if we both buy points with application we'd be at 1.5 average. Based on 2019 odds I'd say that's almost a slam dunk but I don't have any data from 2020.

 

[JakeB2010]

Should be almost a slam dunk but with the increase in applications I cant say for sure. We have been drawn the last 2 years in a row as a group with an average of one PP though I did hear of a couple groups not getting drawn with a PP.

 

[deadwolf]

Idaho raised license and tag fees as well, might push some people into different states


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[toprut]

Updated 2020 MT general tag #s can be found here:

Toprut - Western Big Game Hunting Reference

Draw odds, harvest data, interactive maps and more - Toprut is the most open and accessible western big game hunting research site ever created.

www.toprut.com

 

[robby denning]

plus some high profile hunters did well on deer in MT this year and that never helps odds. seems like the plains units did well.


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[jt4]

I’m not seeing a date on the 2020 regs that I printed. When should we expect to see ‘21 regulations and quotas for each HD?


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[wind gypsy]

Updated 2020 MT general tag #s can be found here:

Toprut - Western Big Game Hunting Reference

Draw odds, harvest data, interactive maps and more - Toprut is the most open and accessible western big game hunting research site ever created.

www.toprut.com

Very interesting to see that 1 point was about equal with 0 for odds on elk or elk/deer combo last year and not a big difference at all for deer..

 

[Chad E]

Very interesting to see that 1 point was about equal with 0 for odds on elk or elk/deer combo last year and not a big difference at all for deer..

Its because Montana reserves a % of tags for applicants with no points. It would be completely possible to have higher odds in the zero point pool as the one point pool. Certainly intresting that spending the money on the point didn't really help your chances.

 

[wind gypsy]

Its because Montana reserves a % of tags for applicants with no points. It would be completely possible to have higher odds in the zero point pool as the one point pool. Certainly intresting that spending the money on the point didn't really help your chances.

Yup. From the looks of things, I wouldn't be surprised if 0 points had BETTER odds than 1 point this year on elk. I'd wager that a good portion of applicants don't fully realize how the system works and assume 1 point still gets them a notable advantage.

 

[204guy]

Yup. From the looks of things, I wouldn't be surprised if 0 points had BETTER odds than 1 point this year on elk. I'd wager that a good portion of applicants don't fully realize how the system works and assume 1 point still gets them a notable advantage.

I'd be surprised if more than 2 people at MTFWP knew this .

 

[fatlander]

Here’s a fun riddle for MT preference points:

Two is one. One is none. Zero is better than none.


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[mproberts]

Its because Montana reserves a % of tags for applicants with no points. It would be completely possible to have higher odds in the zero point pool as the one point pool. Certainly intresting that spending the money on the point didn't really help your chances.

It's really weird that MT 87-2-115 states what you are saying is correct, but common sense and the odds don't seem to indicate that. I feel like MT is actually doing what gohunt states they're doing (ie. allocating 25% of the tags to ALL remaining applicants and not just zero point holder applicants). I feel like that zero point language is just lack of foresight on the state's part, like they didn't foresee a time where applicants with 1pt wouldn't draw.

The fact that odds were still slightly better last year for 1pt holders would seem to indicate that a few 1pt holders got picked up in the 75% allocation, then the rest got lumped into the remaining 25% allocation where they had the exact same odds as 0pt holders. I guess it could have been a freak occurrence where they just happened to run out of 75% allocation at a percentage of 1pt holders just above what the percentage was where they ran out of 25% allocation of 0pt holders, but I find that hard to believe.

Also just for the record MT FWP literally states in their regulations that "A Preference Point improves your odds of drawing a nonresident combination license." which wouldn't be factually correct if 87-2-115 is being read correctly. I feel like that could open them up to being sued, making statements like that, but what do i know.

Would definitely be interested to see if anyone was smarter on this, because it seems really weird to me.

 

[wind gypsy]

It's really weird that MT 87-2-115 states what you are saying is correct, but common sense and the odds don't seem to indicate that. I feel like MT is actually doing what gohunt states they're doing (ie. allocating 25% of the tags to ALL remaining applicants and not just zero point holder applicants). I feel like that zero point language is just lack of foresight on the state's part, like they didn't foresee a time where applicants with 1pt wouldn't draw.

The fact that odds were still slightly better last year for 1pt holders would seem to indicate that a few 1pt holders got picked up in the 75% allocation, then the rest got lumped into the remaining 25% allocation where they had the exact same odds as 0pt holders. I guess it could have been a freak occurrence where they just happened to run out of 75% allocation at a percentage of 1pt holders just above what the percentage was where they ran out of 25% allocation of 0pt holders, but I find that hard to believe.

Also just for the record MT FWP literally states in their regulations that "A Preference Point improves your odds of drawing a nonresident combination license." which wouldn't be factually correct if 87-2-115 is being read correctly. I feel like that could open them up to being sued, making statements like that, but what do i know.

Would definitely be interested to see if anyone was smarter on this, because it seems really weird to me.

I don't think the #'s support the theory of how the 25% drawing works.

There were 3906 total applicants with 2+ points for the elk or deer/elk combo. 17000 (total elk tags) * 0.75 = 12,750. 12,705 - 3906 (2+ point holders) = 8,844 tags left for the top 75% preference point holders.

9,576 1 point applicants drew an elk tag. 8,844 remaining PP tags / 9,576 successful 1 point applicants = about 92% of successful 1 point applicants were successful in the PP drawing.

It's likely i'm overlooking something but this is how i interpret things [EDIT: followcing comment was wrong] and it seems like the 25% of the tags must be given to 0 point holders without competition from applicants with PP.

The other funny thing.. There are a lot of returned tags given out and if you get one, they still let you buy a preference point that summer! I've had general elk tags in MT annually since 2015 but I still had 2 points going into the 2020 draw because my 2019 tag was not awarded in the PP draw.

 

[fatlander]

The top rut numbers are all over the place. If you add the numbers displayed for each preference point category, they don’t even equal the totals they displayed. Let alone Montana’s mandated quota by statute.


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[fatlander]

I don't think the #'s support the theory of how the 25% drawing works.

There were 3906 total applicants with 2+ points for the elk or deer/elk combo. 17000 (total elk tags) * 0.75 = 12,750. 12,705 - 3906 (2+ point holders) = 8,844 tags left for the top 75% preference point holders.

9,576 1 point applicants drew an elk tag. 8,844 remaining PP tags / 9,576 successful 1 point applicants = about 92% of successful 1 point applicants were successful in the PP drawing.

It's likely i'm overlooking something but this is how i interpret things and it seems like the 25% of the tags must be given to 0 point holders without competition from applicants with PP.

The other funny thing.. There are a lot of returned tags given out and if you get one, they still let you buy a preference point that summer! I've had general elk tags in MT annually since 2015 but I still had 2 points going into the 2020 draw because my 2019 tag was not awarded in the PP draw.

23,245 people applied.

12,750 tags must go in the preference point round.
4,250 tags must go to people with no points (although the math doesn’t support that).

3,906 people had 2+ points, so there are only 8,884 tags remaining for the preference point round.

14,001 people had 1 point for those remaining 8,884 tags . Draw odds in the preference point pool would be 63.17% for people with one point.

So there were 5,157 people that DID NOT draw with one point from the preference point pool.

All the while there were 5,338 applicants with zero points that applied for the 4,250 tags not awarded in the preference point pool. The draw odds should have been 79.61% for people with zero points, however that wasn’t the case.

MT threw everyone that applied and hadn’t drawn in that 25% no point (random) round. That’s the only way the numbers could work.

If is true that Montana throws everyone that didn’t draw during the 75% preference pool into the 25% no point pool, which it certainly seems to be based on the math; then having 1 preference point should increase your odds over someone with none because you will be in two drawings instead of one. You’ll have a chance at the 1 point round, then you’ll also have a chance at random round.




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[mproberts]

there were 5,338 applicants with zero points that applied for the 4,250 tags not awarded in the preference point pool. The draw odds should have been 79.61% for people with zero points, however that wasn’t the case.

Exactly right, no way those odds work out correctly if they are allocating 25% to 0pt applicants. Montana has to be throwing every one that left in the 25% draw.

 

[wind gypsy]

Your math is wrong.

23,245 people applied.

12,750 tags must go in the preference point round.
4,250 tags must go to people with no points (although the math doesn’t support that).

3,906 people had 2+ points, so there are only 8,884 tags remaining for the preference point round.

14,001 people had 1 point for those remaining 8,884 tags . Draw odds in the preference point pool would be 63.17% for people with one point.

So there were 5,157 people that DID NOT draw with one point from the preference point pool.

All the while there were 5,338 applicants with zero points that applied for the 4,250 tags not awarded in the preference point pool. The draw odds should have been 79.61% for people with zero points, however that wasn’t the case.

MT threw everyone that applied and hadn’t drawn in that 25% no point (random) round. That’s the only way the numbers could work.

If is true that Montana throws everyone that didn’t draw during the 75% preference pool into the 25% no point pool, which it certainly seems to be based on the math; then having 1 preference point should increase your odds over someone with none because you will be in two drawings instead of one. You’ll have a chance at the 1 point round, then you’ll also have a chance at random round.




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I'm not sure that my Math is wrong, but I didn't calculate the same things as you. My comment about 25% being only 0 point holders was definitely wrong.

If 8,884 of the 14,001 applicants with one point drew a tag in the PP draw, that leaves 5,117 remaining in the 25% random draw. 9,576 total 1 point applicants got a tag, so if 8,884 of them were in the PP draw, only 732 got in the random draw.

That leaves us with:

732 tags going to the 5,117 applicants with 1 point in the 25% draw. - 14.3% odds
3497 tags going to the 5,338 applicants with 0 points in the 25% draw. - 65.5% odds

I'd like to apologize for all this elk tag talk in my first mule deer forum thread

 

[fatlander]

I'm not sure that my Math is wrong, but I didn't calculate the same things as you. My comment about 25% being only 0 point holders was definitely wrong.

If 8,884 of the 14,001 applicants with one point drew a tag in the PP draw, that leaves 5,117 remaining in the 25% random draw. 9,576 total 1 point applicants got a tag, so if 8,884 of them were in the PP draw, only 732 got in the random draw.

That leaves us with:

732 tags going to the 5,117 applicants with 1 point in the 25% draw. - 14.3% odds
3497 tags going to the 5,338 applicants with 0 points in the 25% draw. - 65.5% odds

I'd like to apologize for all this elk tag talk in my first mule deer forum thread

Yeah you’re math was right, I apologize. I misread what you were saying.

Nonetheless, MT definitely is lumping everyone that didn’t draw in the preference round in that last 25% drawing.


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[mproberts]

732 tags going to the 5,117 applicants with 1 point in the 25% draw. - 14.3% odds
3497 tags going to the 5,338 applicants with 0 points in the 25% draw. - 65.5% odds

There couldn't be that much of a difference in odds for the same draw. We have to be doing something wrong.

 

[wind gypsy]

Could it be that they only are allocating those 75%

There couldn't be that much of a difference in odds for the same draw. We have to be doing something wrong.

Only thing I can think of is that the #'s aren't black and white and all the returned tags or something else not taken into account skews things.