Montana Preference Points Planning- 2024 & 2025 Elk Hunts

[rom828q]

I know there has been multiple threads on this topic, but obviously Montana has become a very difficult state to plan a hunt a couple years out, with the recent preference point changes. Just trying to make sure I have a good understanding of how the system works now. A party of four of us has been planning to hunt a specific unit for a while now, and we're looking at hunting two of us in 2024 and two in 2025. Current situation is 1 preference point for everyone. With the dates we want to hunt, goal is to maximize odds of not drawing before we want to, and also maximize our odds of getting the licenses in the specific years we want to go. In order to achieve this, my plan is as follows:

Party 1 (2024 hunt): Apply for elk Combination license this year, 2023, without purchasing a preference point. This gives best odds of not drawing, and the current preference point is maintained (without drawing ideally). In 2024, purchase a preference point and apply, which will put us into the draw with 2 preference points, and ideally a 90+ % chance of drawing the license.

Party 2 (2025 hunt): Do not apply this year, lose the current preference point. Buy a preference point in 2024. Buy a preference point and apply for an elk combination license in 2025, which will put us into the draw with 2 preference points, and ideally a 90+ % chance of drawing the license.

Does this strategy make sense to give us the best odds to pull the licenses in the years we want, being we already have a preference point?

Thanks for any help!

 

[ArcherAdam]

I did this year exactly what you plan to do for 24. Hoping it works!

I would definitely plan for 3 points though in 25 if you can. It will be interesting to see how this process in Montana plays out. However, that will be the 4th year of their "new" system. Will everything balance out or stabilize if that makes sense? Admittedly, I am too cheap to have a $100 point wipe away.

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[hiker270]

Apply to a limited draw area where you have no chance of drawing a tag and still buy preference points. Some units have less than 1% chance of drawing.

 

[Steve O]

God’s speed boys. Montana was successful in making things so complicated for the DIY guy they have officially locked me out of deer and elk there.

 

[Scrappy]

Apply to a limited draw area where you have no chance of drawing a tag and still buy preference points. Some units have less than 1% chance of drawing.

Make sure you check the box for a refund if you don't draw your limited area.

 

[MallardSX2]

No strategy makes sense in Montana. lol

 

[ez_willie]

Party 1 - correct

Party 2 - apply with 1 pp next two years to save $100 each then go into 2025 with 2 each. Because most are not smart enough to understand the system if will be awhile before we have a bunch of people with 3 pp the way it’s set up.

 

[NB7]

Following this because I hunted MT in 2021 and am trying to calculate how to hunt there again in 2025.

How can one assure you're going into the draw with 3 pts?
If I buy a point this year, then apply next year, and could buy a 3rd pt going into the 2025 draw?
Problem is, if I were to be successfully drawn next year, but wasn't able to hunt, then I can't return the tag and keep my points right? So I'd lose the points and be applying in 2025 with one (if I bought one then)

Maybe best bet is to buy the point the year before, another one the year you apply and hope you're drawn with those 2?

If I'm understanding things right, you can only buy a point for one year and must apply by the second year?

 

[rom828q]

I did this year exactly what you plan to do for 24. Hoping it works!

I would definitely plan for 3 points though in 25 if you can. It will be interesting to see how this process in Montana plays out. However, that will be the 4th year of their "new" system. Will everything balance out or stabilize if that makes sense? Admittedly, I am too cheap to have a $100 point wipe away.

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Yeah, that makes sense, I guess there is the potential that the odds of drawing with 2 points decreases significantly by then. I may apply all 4 of us this year, and then for the '25 group, buy another point next year in '24, and then we will have 3 preference points going in to '25.... Just really don't want to draw this year, for the two of us that want to go in '25, so was thinking trying to eliminate that possibility completely was smartest, while still hopefully being able to draw in '25.

 

[rom828q]

Apply to a limited draw area where you have no chance of drawing a tag and still buy preference points. Some units have less than 1% chance of drawing.

I thought about this. But I'm pretty sure you still forfeit the preference point in this case, because you technically have drawn the license.

However, that's probably still a good idea for the two of us that are wanting to go in '25. Because, I'm planning on losing a preference point this year anyways. Therefore if for some reason, we draw it's the same result. But odds are we won't, and then should be able to buy a preference point next year, and then one in '25 when we apply and go in with 3.

 

[rom828q]

Following this because I hunted MT in 2021 and am trying to calculate how to hunt there again in 2025.

How can one assure you're going into the draw with 3 pts?
If I buy a point this year, then apply next year, and could buy a 3rd pt going into the 2025 draw?
Problem is, if I were to be successfully drawn next year, but wasn't able to hunt, then I can't return the tag and keep my points right? So I'd lose the points and be applying in 2025 with one (if I bought one then)

Maybe best bet is to buy the point the year before, another one the year you apply and hope you're drawn with those 2?

If I'm understanding things right, you can only buy a point for one year and must apply by the second year?

There's no way to ensure you have 100% chance of having 3 points in a certain year, the way I understand the system. You can play the odds to get there, but you have to risk drawing at some point. Your lowest odds of drawing are typically by having 1 point, as of now, with the past years application numbers. With 3, 2, or 0 points, you have a significant chance of drawing. That's dilemma I'm trying to figure my way through to draw in the correct years.

Truthfully, it's really demoralizing how complicated it is just to go hunt. But, we're trying to return to an area my grandfather/dad hunted 30 years ago more for nostalgic reason than anything else. Of course when you factor in the bonus points for the unit, there's another potential hiccup. We should have over 95% odds in the unit by the time '24 & '25 roll around, but there's been a time in the past where we didn't draw with what I think was a 98% chance. So fingers crossed the next couple years the odds play out in our favor haha

 

[waldo9190]

I haven't crunched the numbers in a while but me thinks that at some point MT may get to a point where 3 pts. might not necessarily guarantee you a tag anymore if application numbers keep increasing.

I was bit by the point rule change unfortunately. Currently buying bonus points and in a year or two (when the kids are a bit older and my schedule loosens up a bit) will jump back in.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

Apply to a limited draw area where you have no chance of drawing a tag and still buy preference points. Some units have less than 1% chance of drawing.

But if you draw the gen tag and not the LE tag you still loose your PP even if they return your money.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

Party 1 - correct

Party 2 - apply with 1 pp next two years to save $100 each then go into 2025 with 2 each. Because most are not smart enough to understand the system if will be awhile before we have a bunch of people with 3 pp the way it’s set up.

This would work but with guided hunters able to get 2 PP a year it's makes it hard to predict how long 2 pts will still draw.

 

[Scoot]

Truthfully, it's really demoralizing how complicated it is just to go hunt.

I find the complication piece of this both frustrating and pretty ridiculous. The demoralizing piece of this, to me, is how the state of MT has decided to not give two shits about DIY hunters and to provide nothing but favors, rewards, and welfare to outfitters and landowners. Sad, sad deal IMO.

 

[ez_willie]

I thought about this. But I'm pretty sure you still forfeit the preference point in this case, because you technically have drawn the license.

However, that's probably still a good idea for the two of us that are wanting to go in '25. Because, I'm planning on losing a preference point this year anyways. Therefore if for some reason, we draw it's the same result. But odds are we won't, and then should be able to buy a preference point next year, and then one in '25 when we apply and go in with 3.

• If you apply for a combination license and an elk permit, you will have the opportunity to select the 80% refund option. If you select that option and are successful in the combination license drawing but unsuccessful in the elk permit drawing, you will receive an 80% refund of your license fee. Additionally, the number of preference points you hold will be reset to 0.

 

[ez_willie]

This would work but with guided hunters able to get 2 PP a year it's makes it hard to predict how long 2 pts will still draw.

True but I don’t think it actually had that big of impact last year.

 

[rom828q]

• If you apply for a combination license and an elk permit, you will have the opportunity to select the 80% refund option. If you select that option and are successful in the combination license drawing but unsuccessful in the elk permit drawing, you will receive an 80% refund of your license fee. Additionally, the number of preference points you hold will be reset to 0.

Right, that's my understanding. Therefore what I think I'm going to do is this.

Party 1 (2024 hunt): Apply for elk Combination license this year, 2023, without purchasing a preference point. Best odds of not drawing this year, and the current preference point will be maintained (without drawing ideally). In 2024, purchase a preference point and apply, which will put us into the draw with 2 preference points, and ideally a 90+ % chance of drawing the license.


Party 2 (2025 hunt): Apply for elk Combination license, and lowest odds unit in Montana, without purchasing a preference point, and request refund if drawn. Ideally, party won't draw license, and will maintain 1 preference point. Buy a preference point in 2024. Buy a preference point and apply for an elk combination license in 2025, which will put us into the draw with 3 preference points, and hopefully guaranteed license...... If for some reason we draw the license this year, and then get a refund. Oh well, I was still planning on losing the points this year anyways. Of course, if we draw the licenses and the unit, oh well, figure out how to make it out hunting there this year with that good of tag haha

 

[ez_willie]

Right, that's my understanding. Therefore what I think I'm going to do is this.

Party 1 (2024 hunt): Apply for elk Combination license this year, 2023, without purchasing a preference point. Best odds of not drawing this year, and the current preference point will be maintained (without drawing ideally). In 2024, purchase a preference point and apply, which will put us into the draw with 2 preference points, and ideally a 90+ % chance of drawing the license.


Party 2 (2025 hunt): Apply for elk Combination license, and lowest odds unit in Montana, without purchasing a preference point, and request refund if drawn. Ideally, party won't draw license, and will maintain 1 preference point. Buy a preference point in 2024. Buy a preference point and apply for an elk combination license in 2025, which will put us into the draw with 3 preference points, and hopefully guaranteed license...... If for some reason we draw the license this year, and then get a refund. Oh well, I was still planning on losing the points this year anyways. Of course, if we draw the licenses and the unit, oh well, figure out how to make it out hunting there this year with that good of tag haha

Party 1 - correct

Party 2 - this would work except MT isn’t going to let you buy another pp this summer because you applied, leaving you with 2 again going into 2025, your going to get this right I can feel it!

 

[Erict]

(corrected after Raghornkiller identified problem with my math)

There is one non-outfitter way I know of to reach 3 PP by using a low average PP party application.

Apply as a party of, say, four hunters. Two of you have 1 PP. Find two friends with 0 PP not planning to hunt this year. (Could even be your daughter in college and your 98 year old father - as long as meet the license app qualifications.) Apply as a party with everyone purchasing a PP. Your group average is 1.500 PP, which all but guarantees you won't get drawn for a combo license. The two of you apply in 2024 and buy PP at application time and you have 3 PP - the max.

(*Applications have non-refundable fees so do the math before jumping in to the game. I think it would be cheaper if in 2023 you only applied for deer combo and didn't get drawn. )