No. Harvest rates have no bearing on actual herd size in this part of western Colorado. Year to year harvests vary with weather. I know most of you know that early season snows can disproportionately effect harvest rates, but so can drought. The drought two years ago had elk in huge winter herds down in the sage early. So what do you say, huge harvest rates so there must be a lot of elk out there? Let’s do the opposite scenario, good winter snow and a wet summer. Forage and moisture everywhere. Then you have a mild fall. All through hunting season the elk are scattered from timberline to aspen/sage ecotone. Few are harvesting elk because of this. Does that indicate anything about the size of the herd or did it just tell you success rates were down.
Then you fly the winter range in late winter and you find out the only number that matters to set next years tag limits. How many elk are in a position to make it to spring and what your bull/cow ratio is.