I ran the cost analysis through AI. If you paid these draftees standard wages and included the GI bill etc, it would raise the current annual defense budget by 500-600% and require an initial infrastructure investment of around 1 trillion dollars, roughly equal to our current defense budget.
So, the first year of implementation would require a defense budget of around 2.5 Trillion dollars. The IRS collects about 4.4 Trillion each year, so this program would cost approx. 56% of America's total tax revenue to implement.
I'll be willing to argue against anyone that the military is best served by a volunteer force barring necessity and any surplus revenue is better invested in a premium education and fully modernized healthcare
for the entire population as education and healthcare is ultimately what solves strategic civilization problems. The more you diminish those 2 aspects, the less reasons you have to spend money defending the civilization AND, education and healthcare only improve the efficiency of defense.
Estimating the cost of mandatory military service for all Americans aged 18–20 requires making several assumptions regarding exemptions, pay scales, and infrastructure.
Here is a breakdown of the estimated costs based on current U.S. military spending standards and population data.
1. The Raw Numbers (The Intake)
- Population: There are approximately 4.3 million Americans turning 18 every year.
- Eligibility: Historically, not everyone qualifies (medical issues, criminal records, low aptitude scores). However, in a mandatory "universal" system, we must assume high participation. Let’s assume a 75% induction rate (allowing for severe disabilities), resulting in 3.2 million conscripts per year.
- Total Force Size:Since the service is for 2 years, there would be two cohorts active at any time.
- Total Conscript Force: ~6.4 million people.
- (For context: The current active duty U.S. military is roughly 1.3 million. This would quintuple the size of the armed forces.)
2. Direct Personnel Costs (Recurring Annual Costs)
If we assume these conscripts are paid at the current rank of
Private (E-1) with standard benefits, the costs are substantial.
- Basic Pay:An E-1 earns approx. $24,000/year.
- $24,000 ×× 6.4 million = $153.6 Billion.
- Food & Housing:The military must feed and house these troops. Even if they live in barracks and eat at mess halls (avoiding expensive housing allowances), the cost for subsistence and facilities maintenance is roughly $20,000 per person/year.
- $20,000 ×× 6.4 million = $128 Billion.
- Healthcare:TRICARE (military health insurance) costs would skyrocket. A conservative estimate for young, healthy individuals is $5,000/year.
- $5,000 ×× 6.4 million = $32 Billion.
- Gear & Equipment:Uniforms, body armor, and personal kits cost roughly $5,000 per soldier annually (amortized).
- $5,000 ×× 6.4 million = $32 Billion.
Subtotal for Direct Compensation: ~\345 Billion per year.
3. Operational & Training Costs (Recurring)
You cannot simply employ soldiers; you must train them. Basic Training is resource-intensive.
- Training Costs: Moving 3.2 million people through Basic Training every year requires massive amounts of ammunition, fuel, instructors, and transportation.
- Administration: The bureaucracy required to manage a draft of this size (Selective Service expansion, HR, legal) would be massive.
- Estimated Operational Overhead: Conservative estimates suggest adding $50–$100 Billion annually for the logistics of training and managing this workforce.
4. The "Hidden" Backend Costs (The GI Bill)
If mandatory service comes with the same benefits as voluntary service, the U.S. would be on the hook for the GI Bill (college tuition) for 3.2 million people exiting the service
every single year.
- If only 60% used the benefit at an average cost of $20,000/year for 4 years:
- Estimated Cost: ~\150 Billion per year in future liabilities.
5. Infrastructure (The "Upfront" Capital Cost)
This is the most significant hurdle. The U.S. currently has barracks and bases for ~1.3 million active troops. Housing an additional 6.4 million people would require building the equivalent of
150 to 200 new large military bases.
- Construction Estimate: Trillions of dollars in one-time construction costs to build enough barracks to house the population of Los Angeles and Chicago combined.
The Bottom Line Summary
If the U.S. implemented this policy today, maintaining current military standards of living and pay:
- Annual Recurring Cost: $500 Billion – $600 Billion
(This would roughly double the current U.S. Defense Budget of ~\850 Billion to ~\1.4 Trillion).
- One-Time Infrastructure Cost: $1 Trillion+
The only way to lower this cost is to adopt a model like South Korea or (historically) Israel, where conscripts are paid well below minimum wage (e.g., $300–$500/month) and housed in austere conditions. Even then, the logistical cost of feeding, clothing, and training 6.4 million people would likely cost taxpayers at least
$250 Billion annually.