Liberation Day

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I work for a eu company. I am literally right now this very moment calculating what the effect is in our P&L forecast of a 20% duty on our EU-made product, and a 32% duty on our TW-made product. If applied evenly across the board I see the long-term potential to build a more 360-degree US economy sometime years down the road. At the same time, I know 11 Americans whose jobs just got a lot harder and less secure today.

Echoing the sentiment about a ramp-up schedule for something like this.
 
I started to type something out related to this yesterday, but it got too long and I discarded it. I think you are correct that any new investment in American manufacturing will rely heavily upon automation. Sure, there will be some amount of new jobs in robotics and engineering and that may very well be good for some members of Gen Z and the upcoming Gen Alpha coming out of STEM programs. Younger and Elder Millennials? Gen X? There will be some white collar management and sales jobs in there, but In terms of blue collar jobs for unskilled Millennials and Gen X? I'm sure there will be a handful who benefit in some way, but the idea of millions going to work in factories is probably a pipe dream. A large labor force in the style of Rosie the Riveter is simply not needed and its nots going to happen. We could end up as a country that does a lot more manufacturing than we do now, but we won't end up as a society of manufacturers because so much of that work will be performed through automation. Its a nice thought and all, but unclear if the pain is worth the gain.
Working in Automation the last 20 years. I can confirm the gloves have come off since covid about " taking people's jobs" in manufacturing. The reduction of human labor when evaluating the ROI of a project used to be whispered or hidden on a tab in a spreadsheet, but now with the lack of actual People willing to work, it's line item 1 front and center. How many less people do I need if I buy this?

95% of the time, it's less people they need to hire, not who gets fired.
 
Numbers? Yes. (The rest of your post, however, sweeping generalizations).

Supply Chains: yeas out.
Infrastructure:: years out.
Automation: years out.
Expertise and Training for a work force on the required scale: years out.

The good news: Statistically speaking, China's reproduction rate has them running out of a labor force between 2035-2040. There's no possible course correction for their demographics at this late stage.

Strategically, there is a way to thread the needle between the two. Does that strategy involve imposing 25% tariffs on the whole word on one random day in the year 2025? probably not.
If we didn’t start some random day in 2025 when would we start? This outsourcing of critical products should have been stopped or corrected decades ago, instead we have let fat cats in government and corporations raid our country with the veneer of a “great economy” well I would rather lose perceived equity in my home and have no growth in the stock market for a decade if it means my children can live in a country with a real economy, and a much much smaller federal debt level. If generations had this mentality decades ago we wouldn’t be where we are today. I’ll step up (35) I think many of those my age feel the same. I’m done sacrificing my country at the alter of cheap crap good and an inflated stock market. If not now then when? If not us than who? Let’s go, lock in for temporary pain for long term prosperity and true freedom.
 
Countries for whom citizens depend on low wages and dangerous jobs to put food on the table could care less about the US standards for manufacturing and production. The US and Western Europe were tremendous polluters during our industrial revolutions, and many of these countries are going through their booms now. Who are we to strap them down with regulation to kill their burgeoning economies?

You are right that there is a price to pay either way. However, analyzing current US regulations and reducing or eliminating them when they don't make sense or are based on decades old testing and measurement systems just makes sense. Regulating our industries to the point that we are no longer competitive is a recipe for dependency not freedom.

If I had my way, we would put a laser beam focus on nuclear power, leveraging the latest technology and innovation to broaden it's use in our grid. The Chernobyl and 3-Mile Island issues have put a forever stain on this nearly limitless power source. For cripes sake, we've had naval vessels and ice breakers powered by nuclear for decades. Make energy cheap and the rest of the economy will thrive whether we're talking about gasoline, diesel, natural gas, or coal.
You’re making too much sense man. You’re going to confuse people 🤣
 
Retool Detroit Factories and build em there.

I realize people don’t like to actually work anymore or they only want to work a white collar job but that simply isn’t sustainable. If it were this country wouldn’t be going bankrupt buying EVERTHING from foreign nations while selling them nothing.

So the American people put Trump back in the White House to start down the long road to fix all this. You’re going to have to just deal with it you guys had your chance and made it worse.

Its extremely unlikely that you can "retool" existing factories for the demands of modern automation and robotics.

We do in fact sell and export quite a bit to foreign nations: patented innovations, ideas & knowledge. And don't forget weapons.

You seem to be well latched on to this idea that America is once again going to be a factory based economy full of workers putting rivets in airplanes. I'm not saying there won't be more manufacturing again in the future, but it ain't going to look like anything close to what you seem to think its going to look like. Its going to consists largely of robotics and automation and a small amount of techs and engineers to tend to them. Nobody is going to be soldering your replacement by hand in a factory in Detroit.
 
If we didn’t start some random day in 2025 when would we start? This outsourcing of critical products should have been stopped or corrected decades ago, instead we have let fat cats in government and corporations raid our country with the veneer of a “great economy” well I would rather lose perceived equity in my home and have no growth in the stock market for a decade if it means my children can live in a country with a real economy, and a much much smaller federal debt level. If generations had this mentality decades ago we wouldn’t be where we are today. I’ll step up (35) I think many of those my age feel the same. I’m done sacrificing my country at the alter of cheap crap good and an inflated stock market. If not now then when? If not us than who? Let’s go, lock in for temporary pain for long term prosperity and true freedom.
I am not far behind you in age and I am willing to take the pain, IF we actually do get the gain. That is the part I am questioning. I have little faith that we will.
 
Its extremely unlikely that you can "retool" existing factories for the demands of modern automation and robotics.

We do in fact sell and export quite a bit to foreign nations: patented innovations, ideas & knowledge. And don't forget weapons.

You seem to be well latched on to this idea that America is once again going to be a factory based economy full of workers putting rivets in airplanes. I'm not saying there won't be more manufacturing again in the future, but it ain't going to look like anything close to what you seem to think its going to look like. Its going to consists largely of robotics and automation and a small amount of techs and engineers to tend to them. Nobody is going to be soldering your replacement by hand in a factory in Detroit.
I didn’t realize you were an expert.

Maybe you’re right, we should just keep loading up on cheap crap we don’t need, spend spend spend, and “sell” our patented innovations, ideas, and knowledge so that China can reverse engineer them while they’re building them in their factories. That way we can all buy stuff for even cheaper when the Chinese knockoffs show up on Temu!

Carry on
 
Curious where you got the data point on DSM waterworks? Happen to know a few dudes working there.
I read that in an article, and I'm looking for it now. In the meantime, here are a few related articles...

https://www.iowapublicradio.org/ipr...-build-new-wells-in-light-of-river-pollutants

My favorite quote from that article, "Iowa’s agriculture secretary dismissed a recent national report highlighting ag pollution in the Raccoon River as “propaganda”, though he added there is still a "long ways to go" to reduce nutrient runoff in the river."

https://www.iowapublicradio.org/ipr...ccoon-rivers-among-most-endangered-in-the-u-s

"The sheer scale of agricultural pollutants has forced the DMWW to continuously find new ways to keep its source water in the Raccoon and Des Moines Rivers below federal standards for safe drinking, including installing one of the largest nitrate removal systems in the world."

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...-million-expanded-nitrate-facility/336648001/

In this one, the author states, "At the time it was built, the Des Moines facility was the largest of its kind in the world ." This is specific to the nitrate removal system completed in '91 or '92. This isn't the same quote I remember, but you get the gist. Since '92 there were expansion projects, a lawsuit against a handful of Iowa counties upstream that was dismissed, etc...
 
I am not far behind you in age and I am willing to take the pain, IF we actually do get the gain. That is the part I am questioning.
Absolutely, we will have to stay the course for a decade or better at least, needs to be coupled with a big moratorium on immigration legal and illegal. We have a contracting population, we don’t need to keep assets inflated by mass immigration, in theory should be a lot of homes hitting the market in the next ten years more than enough to make up for lack right now.

Scary to think about some of it. The alternative is if we stayed our course with our debt and out sourcing everything we probably implode in 10 years, and become some weird “economic zone” with more inequality, crime, and less freedom.

There is no easy solution out of this, it’s like selling a lie for at least the last 30 years at some point the truth comes and there is a reckoning

Best way I’ve seen it explained is the American Empire has to die, in order for us to save USA as a nation and continue to exist. 250 is about average for the time of an empire. I am so thankful we are finally taking an America first approach, this should have been dealt with decades ago, but here we are.
 
We can't get people to pass a drug test most times.
That does get in the way for a lot of kids. Too bad really. I know a couple of good guys that can’t see the benefit of passing drug tests and better paying jobs, so they struggle making squat. Their entire social circle revolves around smoking pot and chilling with their homies, while non of them are doing much with their lives.
 
Absolutely, we will have to stay the course for a decade or better at least, needs to be coupled with a big moratorium on immigration legal and illegal. We have a contracting population, we don’t need to keep assets inflated by mass immigration, in theory should be a lot of homes hitting the market in the next ten years more than enough to make up for lack right now.

Scary to think about some of it. The alternative is if we stayed our course with our debt and out sourcing everything we probably implode in 10 years, and become some weird “economic zone” with more inequality, crime, and less freedom.

There is no easy solution out of this, it’s like selling a lie for at least the last 30 years at some point the truth comes and there is a reckoning
Its going to take a lot more than that. Its going to take an entire shift in the way that we think about jobs and pay. I dont know that that will happen. Its going to take filling factories with people producing things and being paid livable wages. Wages that can support families. It will all do no good if we build a bunch of factories and try to fill them with poverty level wage jobs or fill them up with robots.

Like I said in the beginning of this thread. All growing up I was told that producing things overseas was the best thing since sliced bread. Now the same people are telling me that bringing all the production back is the greatest things since sliced bread 2.0. Does not leave me with a lot of faith.

Time will tell.
 
Automation, AI, an ever lazing workforce, education in the shitter and no one cares, gotta have it now, people literally writing article la about how leisure over work is the way, the ability (and push by vendors) to make payments on a $50 item, massive credit card debt, over-valued education, unaffordable first-time housing…

Tell me some good news about the future fellas, and “me and my family will be fine” ain’t gonna cut it. Donne was right - no man is an island and it’s time we understand that.
 
DXY dropping
US 10Y yield dropping

The world has been on a high dose of the fiat drug for a while, which is built on debit, US debit. The chances of a fed fund rate cut are rising for may and June. The US needs to refi all of that debit having low rates is a must.

It’s not like these tariffs weren’t telegraphed or expected.

Watch for the opportunities bc when this reverses it will be a feeding frenzy.








Find true liberation buy Bitcoin.


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Its going to take a lot more than that. Its going to take an entire shift in the way that we think about jobs and pay. I dont know that that will happen. Its going to take filling factories with people producing things and being paid livable wages. Wages that can support families. It will all do no good if we build a bunch of factories and try to fill them with poverty level wage jobs or fill them up with robots.

Like I said in the beginning of this thread. All growing up I was told that producing things overseas was the best thing since sliced bread. Now the same people are telling me that brining all the production back is the greatest things since sliced bread 2.0. Does not leave me with a lot of faith.

Time will tell.
I get it man, I never understood why we shipped it all over seas from a nationalist and patriot stand point. I understood it from a profiteering, pure unbridled capitalist standpoint, which can really be kind of evil. But how stupid are we to rely on other nations for our medicine, steel, lumber, and other key aspects that keep a society moving forward?

I was a soldier, now I’m a fireman, pretty low on the totem pole, but even I can spot unfair trade practices, and couple that with insane illegal immigration and late stage feminism that absolutely destroyed wages for the American worker by diluting the labor force with many many times the amount of workers so it drove wages into the dirt, we have to climb out of that cycle somehow
 
DXY dropping
US 10Y yield dropping

The world has been on a high dose of the fiat drug for a while, which is built on debit, US debit. The chances of a fed fund rate cut are rising for may and June. The US needs to refi all of that debit having low rates is a must.

It’s not like these tariffs weren’t telegraphed or expected.

Watch for the opportunities bc when this reverses it will be a feeding frenzy.








Find true liberation buy Bitcoin.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Don’t know much about bitcoin, but 100% agree with having to refinance 9 trillion in debt next year… which is an issue if rates are still around 7%…
 
Isn't that what collapsed the American auto industry?
I don't think it was wages for active workers. I could be wrong, but I believe it was mostly due to the fact that contracts required auto companies to continue providing full health benefits in addition to pensions to retirees.

EDIT: I am by no means knocking the paying of pensions. It is health benefits for retirees that would cost any company a fortune. One heart attack or cancer diagnosis costs hundreds of thousands of dollars or more.
 
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