Kifarucast/ Don jr episode

[gelton]

I keep hearing and reading about how Jr. is the real deal. I’m not calling anyone, especially Aron, a liar on that. I just wanted some actual hunting or technical talk to be able to make that judgement for myself.

I also would’ve liked some more specifics on what Trump did to benefit hunters while in office. It was vaguely referenced and glossed over. According to most of the info out there, it seems like sportsman were an afterthought to industry. Jr. did little to refute that. None of this is remotely new or unique, just more of the same. For the talk about how good it was to have a hunter that close to the president, I’d like to listen to some discussion on what the actual benefit was.

I will leave this one up to @texans42 should he choose to respond because he has the goods on this but Trump opened up more public land than any president in decades.

And have a look at the cover photo, AP just couldn't give a nod to Trump without making it look like a rental.

Trump signs major public lands, conservation bill into law

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump signed a wide-ranging public lands bill Tuesday that creates five new national monuments and expands several national parks. The new law also adds...

apnews.com

 

[cmahoney]

I really liked the mustache wax mention.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Alaskanopolis]

The Trump administration negotiated 2 production cuts from OPEC in 2020. This was done to stabilize prices. While you can argue speculative concerns about the Biden administrations anti fracking rhetoric influences sentiment and overall market emotion, its peanuts compared to the actual reductions in production in 2020 in terms of market impact.

Opec controls around 75% of the reserves and almost 50% of the production. Regardless of what Biden or Trump say to the media, OPEC controls the price. A couple percentage points in production cuts from OPEC has a rippling effect on global prices.

Oil prices were low in 2020 because supply far outpaced demand. So much that we had tankers full of oil sitting in our ports, we had more tankers from Saudi Arabia off our shores headed for our ports. We had every available oil storage facility full. Oil prices are up in 2021 (but not yet to precovid prices) because demand is back.

This is supply and demand economics. The presidents have very little to do with oil prices. It's a global market and we're far from the biggest player in that market.

Now, if Biden starts bombing opec countries and seizing control of oil infrastructure like was done 20 years ago by the Bush admin...then you'd have my attention.

Yeah, I know. You kind of agreed with me that presidents can and do play a role in oil prices. Thanks.

 

[Alaskanopolis]

The Trump administration negotiated 2 production cuts from OPEC in 2020. This was done to stabilize prices. While you can argue speculative concerns about the Biden administrations anti fracking rhetoric influences sentiment and overall market emotion, its peanuts compared to the actual reductions in production in 2020 in terms of market impact.

Opec controls around 75% of the reserves and almost 50% of the production. Regardless of what Biden or Trump say to the media, OPEC controls the price. A couple percentage points in production cuts from OPEC has a rippling effect on global prices.

Oil prices were low in 2020 because supply far outpaced demand. So much that we had tankers full of oil sitting in our ports, we had more tankers from Saudi Arabia off our shores headed for our ports. We had every available oil storage facility full. Oil prices are up in 2021 (but not yet to precovid prices) because demand is back.

This is supply and demand economics. The presidents have very little to do with oil prices. It's a global market and we're far from the biggest player in that market.

Now, if Biden starts bombing opec countries and seizing control of oil infrastructure like was done 20 years ago by the Bush admin...then you'd have my attention.

There’s also a balance since we have (had) such a thriving shale oil industry in this country that required higher prices. I work in a conventional oil field—higher prices are great for me. If the shale industry wasn’t torched in this country, there’s be a check on higher prices with demand being filled by shale. Now OPEC essentially has control of the taps again.

 

[*zap*]

biden took over, 6 months later gas is close to double the price......just a coincidence.....keep moving.

 

[cuerro viejo]

This thread is no different then mainstream media. Hunter Biden is apparently a saint and Don Jr, is a racist, crack head, knocks up strippers, and shouts racist slurs all the time.

Don Jr. Is a Hunter period. He hunts any where he can. Hat tip to him.

It’s mind blowing the hostility because of his last name.

one take away from pod cast I thought was cool was he worked as a bar tender after college.

It’s been decades since we have had a real hunter (just like us) thats had that much influence (hunting And 2nd amendment) with a President. I’m proud he was able to have positive influence on things like access, and gun rights.

anyone that denies his influence really just needs to go bow before the Biden’s nukes.

 

[brocksw]

I keep hearing and reading about how Jr. is the real deal. I’m not calling anyone, especially Aron, a liar on that. I just wanted some actual hunting or technical talk to be able to make that judgement for myself.

I also would’ve liked some more specifics on what Trump did to benefit hunters while in office. It was vaguely referenced and glossed over. According to most of the info out there, it seems like sportsman were an afterthought to industry. Jr. did little to refute that. None of this is remotely new or unique, just more of the same. For the talk about how good it was to have a hunter that close to the president, I’d like to listen to some discussion on what the actual benefit was.

Trump certainly did some good. He opened up a bunch of refuges to hunting. I forget the acreage off the top of my head, but I think it was fairly similar to what the Biden administrations just did about a month ago, in terms of acres.

I could be mistaken, but when it came to public lands the only time I saw Jr advocate for them was over the pebble mine fiasco. There Dj came out against the mine very publicly with a request to his pops to leave the place alone...essentially stated “As a sportsman who has spent plenty of time in the area I agree 100%. The headwaters of Bristol Bay and the surrounding fisheries are too unique and fragile to take any chances with. #PebbleMine.” That was really helpful as groups like BHA, TRCP, and I believe the wildlife Federation had been advocating for that stance as well.

The bears ears thing was kind of a weird precedent but it didn't actually lead to a loss of public land. It was a definite open door to industry but I'm just not familiar enough with details to speak to intelligently on it overall.

As far as the GAOA. That's a tough one. Yea, Trump publicly supported it and signed it, along with a fair number of Republicans. But just a month before that they proposed a 97% cut to the land and water conservation fund budget. So there was a reverse course there and there were some changes to the lwcf that raised some eye brows and in some way made this kind of a wash. It's good but not nearly as good as it could've been. Good on Trump for supporting it but the way things went down it definitely makes me think it was a reelection strategy since it all went down in the months before november and it lacked some of the things the conservation groups really wanted...like full annual funding.

 

[brocksw]

Yeah, I know. You kind of agreed with me that presidents can and do play a role in oil prices. Thanks.

Well, Trump and the US weren't the only ones at the table. Russia was involved as well. But sure, I'll concede Trump played a role in prices. However, his role was in support of a oil production cut to boost(stabilize) prices, remember they went negative. That was just good policy and world leaders were all on the same page as this was a broadly supported move, globally. In fact, Biden has not reneged the deal and opec is still exercising this cut in production to my knowledge. So I guess technically, Trump has more to do with these oil prices than Biden.

But that's another one of the things the left doesn't want to talk about. Just like Trumps 20% tariffs on china that the Biden admin hasnt done away either.

 

[Alaskanopolis]

Well, Trump and the US weren't the only ones at the table. Russia was involved as well. But sure, I'll concede Trump played a role in prices. However, his role was in support of a oil production cut to boost(stabilize) prices. That was just good policy and world leaders were all on the same page as this was a broadly supported move, globally. In fact, Biden has not reneged the deal and opec is still exercising this cut in production to my knowledge. So I guess technically, Trump has more to do with these oil prices than Biden.

But that's another one of the things the left doesn't want to talk about. Just like Trumps 20% tariffs on china that the Biden admin hasnt done away either.

Biden’s stance on fracking and the oil industry in general is what will allow opec to rest easy with higher prices than we’ve had since 2014. If there was a very pro-US oil and gas administration in there, OPEC would have already opened the taps by now to lower prices and dry up shale for a third time. Another huge factor is that capital sources are drying up for shale because they’re tired of opec torching them by flooding the market every time the margins start to appear for shale. This administrations stance, along with the capital markets are probably the nail in the coffin for US shale and with it a lot of jobs for Americans that will now further enrichen despotic regimes on the other side of the globe.

 

[*zap*]

 

[Red Letters]

Killing the keystone pipeline will almost insurability mean China will get that oil and they didn’t even have to cut us out as the middleman, it was handed to them. Then to add insult to injury, green lighting Russia’s pipeline to Germany make no sense whatsoever, besides making billions every year how long until they start strong arming by cutting of the gas supply.

taking money straight out of our pockets and filling theirs

 

[brocksw]

Biden’s stance on fracking and the oil industry in general is what will allow opec to rest East with higher prices than we’ve had since 2014. If there was a very pro-US oil and gas administration in there, OPEC would have already opened the taps by now to lower prices and dry up shale for a third time. Another huge factor is that capital sources are drying up for shale because they’re tired of opec torching them by flooding the market every time the margins start to appear for shale. This administrations stance, along with the capital markets are probably the nail in the coffin for US shale and with it a lot of jobs for Americans that will now further enrichen despotic regimes on the other side of the globe.

You're in luck. OPEC meeting is tomorrow, so I guess we'll find out.

 

[Alaskanopolis]

You're in luck. OPEC meeting is tomorrow, so I guess we'll find out.

Oh, I’m aware. They also understand that the prices being too high kills demand and pushes technological advancements to move away from less economical, higher priced fossil fuels. They’ve essentially stated that they’d like to keep oil in the sweet spot that balances demand with keeping higher cost producers off the market. I almost bet they’ll cut some to try and hold prices around $70/bbl. They’ll dip for a bit then slowly rebalance back towards $70/bbl, versus hitting $100/bbl by the end of the year on this current trajectory. We’ll see how good I am at guessing. Also wouldn’t be surprised if they say eff it and let higher prices ride for a while to recoup some of the Covid losses while the world opens back up and there isn’t really a lot of energy innovating going on in the near future.

 

[thinhorn_AK]

This thread is no different then mainstream media. Hunter Biden is apparently a saint and Don Jr, is a racist, crack head, knocks up strippers, and shouts racist slurs all the time.

Don Jr. Is a Hunter period. He hunts any where he can. Hat tip to him.

It’s mind blowing the hostility because of his last name.

one take away from pod cast I thought was cool was he worked as a bar tender after college.

It’s been decades since we have had a real hunter (just like us) thats had that much influence (hunting And 2nd amendment) with a President. I’m proud he was able to have positive influence on things like access, and gun rights.

anyone that denies his influence really just needs to go bow before the Biden’s nukes.

I don’t like this argument: he’s a hunter so he’s a good person. It’s like saying: I go to church with him so I trust him….both flawed logically.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

The Trump administration negotiated 2 production cuts from OPEC in 2020. This was done to stabilize prices. While you can argue speculative concerns about the Biden administrations anti fracking rhetoric influences sentiment and overall market emotion, its peanuts compared to the actual reductions in production in 2020 in terms of market impact.

Opec controls around 75% of the reserves and almost 50% of the production. Regardless of what Biden or Trump say to the media, OPEC controls the price. A couple percentage points in production cuts from OPEC has a rippling effect on global prices.

Oil prices were low in 2020 because supply far outpaced demand. So much that we had tankers full of oil sitting in our ports, we had more tankers from Saudi Arabia off our shores headed for our ports. We had every available oil storage facility full. Oil prices are up in 2021 (but not yet to precovid prices) because demand is back.

This is supply and demand economics. The presidents have very little to do with oil prices. It's a global market and we're far from the biggest player in that market.

Now, if Biden starts bombing opec countries and seizing control of oil infrastructure like was done 20 years ago by the Bush admin...then you'd have my attention.

All that sounds educated and such. Until you stop and realize that you are arguing against the supply side of economics by legislating against further development of American oil. That reduces supply. Which gives opec the ability to control the market.

 

[brocksw]

Oh, I’m aware. They also understand that the prices being too high kills demand and pushes technological advancements to move away from less economical, higher priced fossil fuels. They’ve essentially stated that they’d like to keep oil in the sweet spot that balances demand with keeping higher cost producers off the market. I almost bet they’ll cut some to try and hold prices around $70/bbl. They’ll dip for a bit then slowly rebalance back towards $70/bbl, versus hitting $100/bbl by the end of the year on this current trajectory. We’ll see how good I am at guessing. Also wouldn’t be surprised if they say eff it and let higher prices ride for a while to recoup some of the Covid losses while the world opens back up and there isn’t really a lot of energy innovating going on in the near future.

My mistake. I guess they've brought back over 2 million bpd since April 1 and they're forecasting demand to go up as it usually does this time of year. If they want to keep prices balanced they'll have to increase production again. If they cut production back and simultaneously predict demand to go up 6 bpd during the next 2 months, prices will jump substantially.

All that sounds educated and such. Until you stop and realize that you are arguing against the supply side of economics by legislating against further development of American oil. That reduces supply. Which gives opec the ability to control the market.

Not really. We export a lot of our own oil because it works better for certain uses. If I have time today I'll try and find an old article that breaks down our oil imports and exports.

But, basically there's a lot stuff that uses oil right? Tires, toys, plastics, fuels...all sorts of things. A lot of the oil produced in the US works well for certain things but not others. Hence, why we don't have dirt cheap gas. We're still reliant on opec and the world oil market to stabilize price as we don't have the production to do it ourselves.

Also, and this is speculative, it's estimated that even if Biden curbs future fracking or federal permits and it makes it through the courts (because it will probably be litigated) it will still have a fairly minor impact on the world oil market and it will be more of a restriction on growth than it will on supply. Lots of good info from reputable sources on this subject as it's really been a talking point since Obama came into office.

It should be noted, I'm not saying a president can't have any effect on prices, I'm just saying up to this point we haven't seen presidential action that we can point a finger at and say that was an isolated action or decision, that uniquely affected prices.

 

[brocksw]

All that sounds educated and such. Until you stop and realize that you are arguing against the supply side of economics by legislating against further development of American oil. That reduces supply. Which gives opec the ability to control the market.

Why The U.S. Must Import And Export Oil

With Wall Street Journal headlines such as “Trans-Atlantic Oil-Price Spread Soars as Supply Glut Disappears,” it might be hard to remember that the United States’ domestic oil production stood at a record 10.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April, and the nation’s petroleum trade balance is...

breakingenergy.com

 

[Alaskanopolis]

I don’t like this argument: he’s a hunter so he’s a good person. It’s like saying: I go to church with him so I trust him….both flawed logically.

It’s not much different than, he’s a bad guy because the mainstream media tells me his. I trust the feeling I get about a podcast with fellow hunters than I do what the New York Times et al tell me about someone. As an Alaskan from a commercial fishing family, I don’t really hear many of the Bristol Bay guys on the left giving Jr any credit for essentially shutting down Pebble, which he did through his Dad’s administration.

 

[Slugz]

I work overseas in the KSA oilfields for the last 10 years. Its my opinion one of the things that hurt us here in the US oilfield was our efficiency. We got so good at all activities that we had over 3000 DUCs at one point. ( drilled but uncompleted). That surplus combined with geopolitical issues worldwide dropped the barrel and started the decline in price cycle again.
Another thing to consider is cost to produce a barrel. We are considerably higher here than overseas. That hurts us a ton.

Back to the podcast. I think a half decent listen. Like in life , some things I agree with, some things I didnt.

 

[wind gypsy]

For the talk about how good it was to have a hunter that close to the president, I’d like to listen to some discussion on what the actual benefit was.

No facts here just a gut feeling that jr helped provide a valuable counter perspective to the utah delegation and having someone like William Perry Pendley as head of the BLM. IMO the pieces were there for things to go much worse for public land sportsman than they did during Trump's tenure.