Is the western hunting bubble bursting? (Or at least shrinking?)

[Yoder]

Most hunters are over 40. The overwhelming majority of young people are soft and hate discomfort of any kind. They also need to be entertained 24x7. I think hunter numbers are going to drop dramatically over the next 10 years. It's going to get better 100%. I'm starting to see it already in PA.

 

[Grundy53]

Man, those were the days huh?!

Yes they were.

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[Aaron-in-CO]

The overwhelming majority of young people are soft and hate discomfort of any kind. They also need to be entertained 24x7.

Fixed it for you.

 

[DWinVA]

So if we get to a 2008 situation or much worse, food shortages accelerate, people become more desperate, etc. could tag sales decrease but unlicensed “hunters” increase to a point that it becomes a real issue?

I say this because I have a lot of non hunting friends say I’d be set when the crap hits the fan. I don’t buy this because when the crap really hits the fan the rules go out the window and wild game gets decimated.

I hope and pray we never see this.

God Bless.

 

[Rifleman86]

I like the ones that start with "I feel...".

 

[WalterH]

Some info on hunting license sales in the country and filtered for the "western" region.

This data seems to fit what I have heard from a few different sources is that the overall trend in the nation is that fewer people are hunting each year than the last. More people are quitting than taking it up.

What I feel is happening is that people are getting more concentrated in the prime areas at the prime times due to all of the available information out there these days, which contributes to the feeling of more people in the woods than in years past.

The amount of non-res activity increase is also very interesting.

Source: https://www.nssf.org/research/hunting-license-data-dashboard/

 

[Gutshot007]

Pending economic collapse of the US economy (points and draws least of our problems ) or next generation taking a liking to Bill Gates plant based steaks . I dont see a bubble occurring with what people will sacrifice for the opportunity to hunt western game . I had posted questions regarding a hunters "breaking point " a while ago and it appears some would donate a kidney for a NR tag

 

[Rifleman86]

Some info on hunting license sales in the country and filtered for the "western" region.

This data seems to fit what I have heard from a few different sources is that the overall trend in the nation is that fewer people are hunting each year than the last. More people are quitting than taking it up.

What I feel is happening is that people are getting more concentrated in the prime areas at the prime times due to all of the available information out there these days, which contributes to the feeling of more people in the woods than in years past.

The amount of non-res activity increase is also very interesting.

Source: https://www.nssf.org/research/hunting-license-data-dashboard/

View attachment 524158

Super interesting! Thanks for sharing.

Very interesting to see numbers either stagnant or somewhat down across the board and a 76% increase in NR numbers in the west, most of which occurred 2018 and after.

I think it’s hard to argue that the Rinella/Newberg effect wasn’t real, for good or bad.

Regardless I wouldn’t imagine that will continue to increase given the larger picture across the board. No doubt some of that 76% will stick around the game long term, but I’d imagine a not insignificant percentage will hunt a handful of seasons and move on. By and large those that had an interest have gotten in the game at this point.

Like I said previously, past data doesn’t predict future results, but when the rest of the numbers in the hunting community are down or stagnant and one small segment has a 76% increase, that points to a bubble rather than a sustainable trend.

Just one guys opinion.

 

[Team4LongGun]

IMO Western hunting is going through what whitetail hunting went through in the 90s with the emergence of Video Hunting and it being "trendy". The changes for the big buck states compounded drastically and has somewhat leveled off but in no way has gotten "better". Land is at a premium and on a lot of levels contributing to the western influx. 5-6 years to draw an Iowa deer tag with about $1000 in tags and points invested. Many people choose to go west instead.

Totally agree-well said.

 

[OMB]

This is the key statement in this entire thread.

The number of hunters in the US has been decreasing as a total for decades, but we don't get that impression out West because of how many are coming out here to hunt. But, as hunters decrease throughout the country that will eventually translate to the West as well. Recruitment is a real thing and like someone said above, once the fashion of influencers is gone, the next generation will just move on to the next thing. Very few of the younger crowd are growing up with hunting being an instilled part of their lives.
Once these newcomers who view hunting through the lens of instagram, YouTube, etc, find out how hard hunting actually is, they'll be out of the game in a hurry.

What happens when the demand for NR tags does go down? What are the agencies going to do to generate that lost revenue? Increase tag prices = lower demand, and on it goes. Then they will start turning to resident fees and we all know the whining that will cause.

As far as cost goes, there will be a time in the not so distant future where the tag will hit a price that certainly will cause a drop in hunters. How many on here will apply in as many states as they do now if the price hits $5,000 - $10,000 for an elk tag? The price of trucks and sxs's was brought up as an example of people having enough money, well, those are purchases that are financed and is spread out over years, not made on a yearly basis....not a good example.

We might not be at the bubble bursting stage yet but it will be happening sooner rather than later.

Bingo. Baby Boomers make up around 1/3 of all hunters in the United States right now.

A lot of people feel like we're never going to see numbers go down because they see limited draw tags getting harder to draw and guided hunt prices skyrocketing. It's easy to forget that a lot of these Baby Boomers are retiring with historic stock market gains (lots of cash to burn on adventures) and quite a few got into point systems out West on the ground floor.

It's not going to change overnight, but I'm betting hard that the landscape is going to look a lot different in 10 years once that cohort really starts to age out.

 

[CorbLand]

Bingo. Baby Boomers make up around 1/3 of all hunters in the United States right now.

A lot of people feel like we're never going to see numbers go down because they see limited draw tags getting harder to draw and guided hunt prices skyrocketing. It's easy to forget that a lot of these Baby Boomers are retiring with historic stock market gains (lots of cash to burn on adventures) and quite a few got into point systems out West on the ground floor.

It's not going to change overnight, but I'm betting hard that the landscape is going to look a lot different in 10 years once that cohort really starts to age out.

Do you think that the generations behind it won’t fill the gap left as the baby boomers age out?

 

[Jethro]

the landscape is going to look a lot different in 10 years

Of course it will. Just like it’s changed in the last 10 years and the 10 before that etc. etc.

 

[CorbLand]

Some info on hunting license sales in the country and filtered for the "western" region.

This data seems to fit what I have heard from a few different sources is that the overall trend in the nation is that fewer people are hunting each year than the last. More people are quitting than taking it up.

What I feel is happening is that people are getting more concentrated in the prime areas at the prime times due to all of the available information out there these days, which contributes to the feeling of more people in the woods than in years past.

The amount of non-res activity increase is also very interesting.

Source: https://www.nssf.org/research/hunting-license-data-dashboard/

View attachment 524158

Be curious to see what the data for ~10-17 for the age bracket would be.

 

[Customweld]

With the boomers and new adult onset hunters giving up,there should be some decent buys on .06’s topped with Weavers and Creedmoors topped with Vortex.

 

[MattB]

Yeah, that Idaho.

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There is no greater predictor of near-term collapse than record demand.

 

[Yoder]

Do you think that the generations behind it won’t fill the gap left as the baby boomers age out?

Generations behind don't even have jobs.

 

[Bobbyboe]

Here’s the post I was talking about. It’s a small sample size, but it appears gen z, for now, are not all that interested in western hunting.

What generation do western hunters fall into?

As the title says if you hunt out west resident or non resident what generation do you fall into? Trying to get a bead on rokslide age classes

rokslide.com

 

[WV Mountaineer]

You lost me when you insinuated eastern deer hu ting will replace western elk hunting.

 

[OMB]

Do you think that the generations behind it won’t fill the gap left as the baby boomers age out?

No, I don't. I understand that there's been an explosion in the popularity of hunting the Western states since 2018, and that there's now more information out there for everyone that wants to jump into it. I also understand there's been a huge population migration to some of the Western states, which obviously some % of those are hunters.

But if you look at hunting participation in the Midwest, hunter numbers in most every state pretty much peaked around the year 2000, which coincides with Baby Boomers being in their late 30's/40's and their kids being young hunting age. Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, etc, all show similar data over the period.

Here's a study from the University of Wisconsin from 2008 (!) where they go into quite a bit of detail on generational cohorts in hunting, interesting to see what they got right and wrong 15 years ago:

https://cdn.apl.wisc.edu/publications/APL_hunter_brief_final.pdf

This isn't necessarily a bad thing, as I think R3 efforts more than anything have been more "You need to be hunting elk in Colorado, so we can sell you a complete set of new gear and equipment, use code INFLUENCER at checkout" than they have creating meaningful advocates for the resource in every state. But to look at demographic trends and hard data and conclude that 2-5 Gen Z/Millennials hunters will fill the shoes of each retiring Baby Boomer is not supported by the data.

 

[Poser]

Here’s the post I was talking about. It’s a small sample size, but it appears gen z, for now, are not all that interested in western hunting.

What generation do western hunters fall into?

As the title says if you hunt out west resident or non resident what generation do you fall into? Trying to get a bead on rokslide age classes

rokslide.com

Or, maybe they just don’t have interest in forums.