Is the current high tag demand a bubble that will crash in the next 10 years?

[alexnelon]

We all can feel the demand for tags is through the roof. Point creep is a nuisance. Tags in general are just way harder to get than they used to be and every ridge has 5 guys on it. States are changing how they allocate tags, increasing fees, all sorts of things trying to "fix" things.

How much of the increase in demand is permanent though? Honest question I haven't seen addressed anywhere.

Nearly 40% of hunters are over 60 years old. Most of these guys have 4-6 years left on the mountain at the most so by 2030 (at current recruitment rates) there will be ~300,000 fewer non-resident hunters across the west and by 2035 it could be down by half a million from current numbers. I know (anecdotal evidence take with salt) several guys who are currently planning their "last elk hunts" over the next 3 years and planning to burn all their points in CO, WY, and AZ.

Are states aware of this and trying to milk this demographic while they still can? The Arizona and Colorado changes make a lot more sense through this lens since there are so many high point holders who will age out (or pass away) long before they have the points to draw the units they've been chasing for 30 years. So adding weighted random chance and forcing guys to burn points will at least do something that affects these guys, while still giving the younger guys a reason to keep applying once the old timers start burning points and turn every 5 point unit into a 15 point unit for 5 years.

Is non-resident demand for tags really going to be cut in half in 10 years? What will the repercussions be?

 

[mwk128]

Hard to say, but my guess is that demand won't decrease unless prices go up exorbitantly, or hunt quality goes way down. In my opinion the increase in demand is due to a combination of how easy it is to apply for tags and how much information is available (draw odds, strategy, e-scouting, etc.) and the fact that there seem to be way more people in the country with the disposable income to pay for these expensive hunts. The internet isn't going away, and no states are going to make it harder to apply for tags, so the only way I see it going down is raise prices to the point where demand goes down, or if there is a huge recession or something that wipes out a lot of upper/upper middle class people. Sure the age of the non-resident hunters skew older, but is that just due to less younger people being into hunting, or is it due to the simple fact that older folks just tend to have more disposable income and free time than young people? If it's the latter that just means the younger people will replace the older people as they age out of hunting, and the younger people get richer and have more free time.

 

[Miflatlander91]

Just my thoughts I’ve been thinking it’s got to get better just like how deer hunting in the Midwest was such a craze in the 2000s that hasn’t died off completely but much less of a draw. Just look at the shows on tv it used to be whitetail and turkeys now they almost all have added western game to their programs I think it will die off some I doubt it goes back to how it was.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[MallardSX2]

Is non-resident demand for tags really going to be cut in half in 10 years? What will the repercussions be?

Interesting concept but I don't think its reality.

I foresee people dog piling on all of the tags until most of us are priced out of the game.

Also, big game tags will continue to decrease due to depleting wildlife populations due to humans doing what we do best and other factors.

 

[dtrkyman]

They have been telling me the hunting age is getting older for 20 years, haven't all those guys died or quit hunting yet?

Man I have no idea, it is so much easier to figure out where to travel and hunt now I am not sure it will ever crash?

If hunters are aging out then it has to happen at some point.

 

[Dos Perros]

@alexnelon how are they "forcing guys to burn points?" Maybe I've missed some change(s) in CO and AZ.

 

[180ls1]

No, wealth and leisure is increasing and scarce objects/possessions will have increasing demand.

 

[alexnelon]

If it's the latter that just means the younger people will replace the older people as they age out of hunting, and the younger people get richer and have more free time.

The thing is that looking at demographics of hunters in general, there are no where near enough younger people to replace the ones aging out regardless of finances or free time.

And so far, statistically, people don't start hunting after they retire.

 

[alexnelon]

@alexnelon how are they "forcing guys to burn points?" Maybe I've missed some change(s) in CO and AZ.

Colorado specifically is taking away the option to put points as a first option. That plus the addition of weighted random chance, means you have to risk your points to hunt instead of just getting a point then hunting your 2nd choice.

 

[Hnthrdr]

Nope, not reality, if anything I think it will continue to get harder and harder to hunt out west. For every boomer that will age out who used to hunt 1 western state a year there is a gen X or millennial who puts in and hunts 4-6 states a year. It will continue to worsen unless there is a massive recession or maybe a world war outside of that the hunting bubble just isn’t popping anytime soon

 

[desertdwellerdyl]

No, wealth and leisure is increasing and scarce objects/possessions will have increasing demand.

Maybe wealth at the top? Purchasing power is definitely decreasing though. If anything we’ll have less money to put into leisure activites.

 

[Dos Perros]

Colorado specifically is taking away the option to put points as a first option.

You have a link to an analysis on this? I would presume that the majority of people in the max point pool are all chasing the same units, and are actively applying each year.

 

[Wheels]

There is a whole slew of 20 somethings and teenagers that are getting into or already are hunting, I don't see any decrease in the number of hunters in the foreseeable future.

 

[Hnthrdr]

You have a link to an analysis on this? I would presume that the majority of people in the max point pool are all chasing the same units, and are actively applying each year.

This is the 2028 change stuff. Not sure that there will no longer be a no pref point option at all but, it will just have everyone and there mom putting in for the couple of almost undrawable elk and deer units to guarantee a PP while at the same time skyrocketing PP even further in those units.. dos there is now 50/50 pp/bonus draw in all units in Co as of 2028. So 50% tags to high point holders and 50% in a random draw where every point you have equals 1 name in the hat

 

[alexnelon]

You have a link to an analysis on this? I would presume that the majority of people in the max point pool are all chasing the same units, and are actively applying each year.

The max point pool do apply, but the guys that are 4-6 points off the unit they want are banking points and hunting 2nd choice units too.

 

[Dos Perros]

Total number of hunters may be decreasing, but people are hunting more. This is evident in the Montana general units. I think people are specializing their lives and less folks are generalists. I do not think it's logical to believe that, for people posting in this thread right now, tags are going to get easier to draw in the future.

 

[Dos Perros]

The max point pool do apply, but the guys that are 4-6 points off the unit they want are banking points and hunting 2nd choice units too.

Really? I haven't looked in a while but I don't think you can draw a single CO archery tag as a 2nd choice. Maybe since they pulled some of those OTC units off and made them draws you can.

I think the CO change you mentioned as I understand it will have a limited affect, maybe even extremely limited. I also think there is a chance it's going to make things worse 10 years out and not better.

 

[alexnelon]

There is a whole slew of 20 somethings and teenagers that are getting into or already are hunting, I don't see any decrease in the number of hunters in the foreseeable future.

It definitely seems this way, but the numbers don't support the idea. There are less than half as many hunters under 30 as there are over 60.

There may be something to the idea that people who hunt are spending more time hunting, but again, retired people have more time than anybody.

 

[Fireflyfishing]

When you keep adding more wolves and other predators into the mix, there will be less tags available….because there will be less ungulates to hunt. This equates to continued high demand.

 

[PathFinder]

No, unfortunately. Without having done an actual statistical analysis, applications appear to be proportional to rising populations. Add the Internet and more disposable income to the population increase, and demand is far more likely to increase than anything.


Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk