Idaho Bonus point system

[WRO]

I don't want a point system in Idaho and no one is going to change my opinion. That's as nice as I can put it.

Noted, just playing devils advocate.

 

[blacktail434]

No, I don't need a participation trophy for not drawing.

 

[WeiserBucks]

Noted, just playing devils advocate.

This topic really fires me up, I start using adult language and then I have to deal with the mods.

 

[WRO]

This topic really fires me up, I start using adult language and then I have to deal with the mods.

I love single syllable 4 letter words.

 

[idelkslayer]

Bonus point or a split system reward those that wait yet still offer new hunters a chance to draw.

On the counter point, what about the guy who applies for 15 years for 54 rifle and never draws randomly? I like to plan my hunts and scout, not just guess when I’ll draw and be way behind the 8 ball when results come out.

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Long time applicants still have an advantage in terms of probability of drawing a tag over time in a random system. The more you apply the more likely you are to draw. The probability of being successful one time over the course of multiple trials is given by this formula:

1-(1-P)^n

Where n is the number of trials and P is odds of drawing. So for example if there is a hunt that typically has 20% odds of drawing a tag and you applied for 5 years. The probability that you would draw the tag at least once is = 1- (1-0.2)^5; That calculates out to 67%. If you apply for 10 years it comes out to 89%.

So while your odds of drawing in any single year are the same as everyone else, your probability of drawing over time slowly approaches but will never reach 100%. Think about it terms of dice rolls. The odds of rolling a 6 on any given attempt are always 1/6 or ~16.7%. However, if you roll the dice multiple times you will eventually roll a six. Yes each dice roll is independent of each other just like each year of applying for a tag is independent of previous years but if you apply 10 times you are more likely to draw than someone who only applies once.

Let's take your scenario of unit 54. Last year it had 9% drawing odds. The probability that the hunter would draw the tag at least once over the course of 15 years is 75.5%. In a pure preference point system it could take him 11 years to draw. In a 50/50 split preference/random system it could take 22 years. In a pure bonus point system it could take just as long or longer than a random system. I fail to see the advantage in all but a pure preference system and that would require a severe handicap on all future generations of applicants.

 

[WeiserBucks]

I love single syllable 4 letter words.

Same here, we should have a beer and quit arguing about points

 

[CorbLand]

I will die on this hill. No points system!

Not alone.

Screw points systems and the white horse they rode in on.

 

[IdahoBeav]

No on a points system, but I'd like longer wait periods after successful draws for deer/elk/pronghorn and a select few changed to OIL. There is currently a species-based 1 year wait following a successful draw. I think it could at least be bumped to 3 years.

 

[deadwolf]

The point systems only favor those who get in on the ground floor. Everyone else will be playing catchup for the rest of their life. 100% random draw odds is the only way to go, and I do like that Idaho makes you prioritize what species you want to hunt. Wish they would do the same for Alaska.


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