I hate it when I'm right. (Dang you HF)

[WestDan]

HF proclaimed no NR drew a WY Special Gen Elk tag as 2nd choice last year. Absolute nonsense and a clear indication they have no idea how the NR side of the draw works.
In 2014 EVERY nr that applied for a Special GEN Elk tag drew, thru 3rd choice. The carryover dropped to the Regular GEN side and increased the odds there by a slight amount.
For 2015, odds for Special GEN were once again 100% but an additional 300 1st choice apps used half of the historical carryover and odds for 2nd choice dropped to 51%.
For AZ they did finally start publishing the NR pass thru tags so you knew which units you could draw in the 1-2 Pass. Kudos to them for that. I would be nice if they changed their unit synopses from year to year. "350 bulls, great unit, scout hard" gets a little old.


The mistakes and incorrect info from Eastmans could be fixed with some research and getting away from the cut n paste of data. They also failed to correctly list the odds for GEN tags in their own state and a 15 second glance at the NM MRS shows 0% public land for unit 36. I assume that was a cut n paste error and nobody looking at it that knows what is going on in NM.
Their PP graph shows the Regular draw is for those with no points. How hard is it to fix that? 2013 NR Elk odds for the 2015 MRS? The odds come out the same day as the results.

Forgive me if I'm not reading this correctly wapitibob, but I think the final results for a non res with zero points in the 2015 Wyoming special draw for gen licenses as a 1st choice was 78%. The calculation I was doing is there were 1,221 apps in the special draw who had zero points and put the gen tag as their first choice. 552 of them drew in the preference point draw and then another 397 drew in the random draw. If you look at the total apps of 1,221 and subtract the 552 who drew in the first draw, you get 669 which is exactly what is shown in the random draw spreadsheet for first choice apps. Of those 669, 397 drew. The total who drew of 949 is the total of the 2 drawings which is 78% of the 1,221. What am I missing?

 

[wapitibob]

The draw odds reports are not valid for NR Elk GEN and doe/fawn hunts. The NR draw process continues after the Elk report is created and for doe/fawn, the report doesn't show applicants that opted for 2 tags. You need to file a public info request to get all the data needed to have accurate odds for the Elk GEN draw.

 

[WestDan]

The draw odds reports are not valid for NR Elk GEN and doe/fawn hunts. The NR draw process continues after the Elk report is created and for doe/fawn, the report doesn't show applicants that opted for 2 tags. You need to file a public info request to get all the data needed to have accurate odds for the Elk GEN draw.

Got it. Thanks for the info. Misleading they just report that draw stuff on website then.