Historically Low Alaska Sheep Harvest

[thinhorn_AK]

Yep, This excellent weather is allowing us to do the West Chugach and the east side of the Western Alaska Range this week. We'll finish those tomorrow (Friday).

Believe it or not, Nick at the Kenai office has scheduled the Kenai Mountains to be flown during the first week of sheep season, weather permitting.

You are not a bio and are not affiliated with ADFG in any way.

 

[Mykolaivka887]

Finished Unit 16 yesterday. Josh out in McGrath is going to try to pull some guys in next week to do Unit 19. Nick in Kenai is going to hopefully get some guys to count units 15 and 7 after the season opens. So basically speaking, got units 13, 14 and 16 done in just a few days. Down to the wire.

 

[IBen]

Care to share this strategy? Saving a few rams isn't going to make more ewes. Limiting NR pressure just swaps who gets to notch the tag. Limiting harvest to 1:4 or something silly like that, doesn't limit overall harvest in any meaningful amount. Very few hunters kill more than one ram in 4 years. Most don't even kill one in 4 years...

I wouldn't be surprised to see harvest under 400 this fall. There was more 7yo shot last year than normal, about 25-40% of the average 8yo harvest, and less than average amount of 9yos. Harvestable rams this fall will be the lowest ever. This year will be cleanup for anything that survived and was legal last year, and I'd expect a lot of young rams in the harvest. The good news is we had great lamb crops following 2013 winter and mild winters. I think we'll see a little bump and then plateau. I'll be surprised if we see 600 rams killed again in the next decade.

Rams taken in 22 was higher than 21

 

[WalterH]

Rams taken in 22 was higher than 21

What is the ‘22 number?

 

[Yellowknife]

Rams taken in 22 was higher than 21

You must be looking at different numbers than I am. Preliminary numbers I'm looking at are showing lower harvest in most major units as we all expected. Overall harvest right around the 400 number that Bambistew called.



*disclaimer, these may not be final numbers, but they are from an ADF&G source. We are now sitting at HALF the pre-2020 typical harvest.

Some long time producers such as 20A and 19C have numbers that are tragic. TMA was a total bust.

We won't have good success rate numbers until all of the laggards turn in their harvest reports, but it does appear that people are self regulating after last season and pressure is trending down. So at least that is good. I know I ended up sitting this one out after a conversation with the pilot.

Yk

 

[IBen]

You must be looking at different numbers than I am. Preliminary numbers I'm looking at are showing lower harvest in most major units as we all expected. Overall harvest right around the 400 number that Bambistew called.

View attachment 462349

*disclaimer, these may not be final numbers, but they are from an ADF&G source. We are now sitting at HALF the pre-2020 typical harvest.

Some long time producers such as 20A and 19C have numbers that are tragic. TMA was a total bust.

We won't have good success rate numbers until all of the laggards turn in their harvest reports, but it does appear that people are self regulating after last season and pressure is trending down. So at least that is good. I know I ended up sitting this one out after a conversation with the pilot.

Yk

Perhaps just in the area i was in. The word from the larger runways were a much better year than 21.

 

[B_Reynolds_AK]

Perhaps just in the area i was in. The word from the larger runways were a much better year than 21.

Which range are you talking about? That’s hard to believe unless they were referencing all the 6 and 7 year olds that have been being killed this year.
Based on your previous post that more rams were taken this year than last, I’m not buying it.

 

[IBen]

Which range are you talking about? That’s hard to believe unless they were referencing all the 6 and 7 year olds that have been being killed this year.
Based on your previous post that more rams were taken this year than last, I’m not buying it.

i cant remeber were it came from, maybe a trooper at a runway? But the word was after the first week of the season the numbers had already surpassed all of last season. That’s area specific. I don’t care either way. I shouldnt have made my statment “matter of fact” should have just said “I heard” This would gave been about the 15th or so of August maybe

 

[flanman85]

Well I guess the feds closing down everything West of the Sag river should be an interesting little experiment in this whole "Shutting it all down". I personally think that is a bit oversimplified as are most complex problems. I think a multi prong approach is more warranted regarding predator control, limited harvest, and transportation limitations. Alaska has lost control of its ability to manage most things because of the Feds constantly over reaching. I don't think taking full curl or end of life rams out of the equation limits sheep mortality much unless the carrying capacity gets too low. Which is ironic they say its below 25% yet acknowledge no reliable counts have been done in a long time due to the vast areas covered.

 

[william schmaltz]

Well, I will be the first to say that I'm extremely surprised by the BOG's vote to shut down 19C to nonresident hunting. I'm not sure anyone saw that coming. I particularly don't agree with it and would've rather seen NR limited by draw or state-managed concession. But something had to happen and I guess the BOG saw this as a good first step. The guides in the area strongly opposed NR limits at the meeting 3 years ago. A bit of a lesson in sacrificing the good for the perfect and coming out with nothing. It will be interesting if this precedent will carry to other struggling units.

 

[Bambistew]

Well, I will be the first to say that I'm extremely surprised by the BOG's vote to shut down 19C to nonresident hunting. I'm not sure anyone saw that coming. I particularly don't agree with it and would've rather seen NR limited by draw or state-managed concession. But something had to happen and I guess the BOG saw this as a good first step. The guides in the area strongly opposed NR limits at the meeting 3 years ago. A bit of a lesson in sacrificing the good for the perfect and coming out with nothing. It will be interesting if this precedent will carry to other struggling units.

Now we need to do the same with 20A.

 

[chasewild]

Now we need to do the same with 20A.

I didn't get to listen to the meeting. Is there a resolution somewhere?

 

[IBen]

Well, I will be the first to say that I'm extremely surprised by the BOG's vote to shut down 19C to nonresident hunting. I'm not sure anyone saw that coming. I particularly don't agree with it and would've rather seen NR limited by draw or state-managed concession. But something had to happen and I guess the BOG saw this as a good first step. The guides in the area strongly opposed NR limits at the meeting 3 years ago. A bit of a lesson in sacrificing the good for the perfect and coming out with nothing. It will be interesting if this precedent will carry to other struggling units.

what will the board of game do if the 2023 harvest is the same? The arguments didn’t make sense since they made the amendment to residents only. Now more residents will go to that area and kill the same amount of sheep. And the guides will go elsewhere and put more pressure in those units. They should’ve just shortened the season for non residents to 10 days and kept everything the same.

 

[IBen]

I didn't get to listen to the meeting. Is there a resolution somewhere?

Board of Game Southcentral Region Meeting 2023

A listen-only audio stream of the meeting will be available at 9:00 a.m. on January 20th by calling:Meeting page with documents and information: https://www....

m.youtube.com

 

[chasewild]

Board of Game Southcentral Region Meeting 2023

A listen-only audio stream of the meeting will be available at 9:00 a.m. on January 20th by calling:Meeting page with documents and information: https://www....

m.youtube.com

Thanks, just wasn't sure if there was a resolution yet.

 

[Bambistew]

what will the board of game do if the 2023 harvest is the same? The arguments didn’t make sense since they made the amendment to residents only. Now more residents will go to that area and kill the same amount of sheep. And the guides will go elsewhere and put more pressure in those units. They should’ve just shortened the season for non residents to 10 days and kept everything the same.

Doubtful that residents will flock there and kill more sheep. They took 3 last year... More were killed in the MT UL areas. I know a few different groups that used to hunt there, they won't go back anytime soon. The sheep are gone. Its also expensive and difficult to access, hence the reason why few residents go there. The second part about guides going somewhere else, is what I eluded to for 20A. There is no limit on guides on state lands. It could become a circus. There isn't enough sheep or room for them to go somewhere else, especially in 20A, its in the same boat as 19. Sheep are hurting everywhere.

 

[Bambistew]

Thanks, just wasn't sure if there was a resolution yet.

They just voted on it about 30 minutes ago. Its a done deal.

 

[william schmaltz]

I didn't get to listen to the meeting. Is there a resolution somewhere?

Proposal 204 amended to close nonresident dall sheep hunting in Unit 19C. Passed with amendment. hopefully the streams are loaded on youtube in a couple days.

what will the board of game do if the 2023 harvest is the same? The arguments didn’t make sense since they made the amendment to residents only. Now more residents will go to that area and kill the same amount of sheep. And the guides will go elsewhere and put more pressure in those units. They should’ve just shortened the season for non residents to 10 days and kept everything the same.

We will see how it all shakes out. I'm just an observer and would never claim to have the answers; hardly willing to suggest a potential solution. Rough numbers, residents shot 3 sheep there last year and NR shot 25. With a resident success rate of about 25%, that means that resident hunters in that area would have to go from about 10-15 to 120 to kill the same number of sheep. I do not see that happening in a unit that's only access by airplane and that everyone knows is smoked. Some guides may go elsewhere, it will just increase the odds of similar closures in other units (as already suggested 20A which is up next year). I believe we are going to see some very swift movement on getting a concession system in place - otherwise other guides can now see what's coming.

 

[ColeyG]

what will the board of game do if the 2023 harvest is the same? The arguments didn’t make sense since they made the amendment to residents only. Now more residents will go to that area and kill the same amount of sheep. And the guides will go elsewhere and put more pressure in those units. They should’ve just shortened the season for non residents to 10 days and kept everything the same.

Resident pressure has been functionally removed from most of the prime areas in 19C for a handful of years now due to lack of legal rams and competition with the guides.

I've spent a lot of time in 19C and bordering 16B in the last 15 years and it breaks my heart to see what has happened to the sheep populations out there. My last trip was 2 years ago after having been away for a few years and the decline just in that time was shocking.

Most guides in the area have either already pulled out or have scaled back trips significantly.

Shortening the season for non-res wouldn't have much of an impact on overall harvest in the area as most non-res sheep die in the first 8 days of the season anyhow.

It is going to take a long time for the animals to bounce back up there. Legal rams aren't the only sheep missing from the landscape. Ewes are way down and lamb recruitment the last few years seems to have been pretty awful.

The wolf and bear populations are thriving though. On my last trip in the area we couldn't turn around without running into a damn bear. One pack of wolves crossed a valley in front of us and their sign was on pretty much every ridgetop and peak in the area. I saw more bears and wolves on this one trip that in the last 14+ years combined. Caribou seem quite a bit more scarce in the area as well.

 

[IBen]

The wolf and bear populations are thriving though. On my last trip in the area we couldn't turn around without running into a damn bear. One pack of wolves crossed a valley in front of us and their sign was on pretty much every ridgetop and peak in the area. I saw more bears and wolves on this one trip that in the last 14+ years combined. Caribou seem quite a bit more scarce in the area as well.

wolves are taken opportunistically by guided hunters now they won’t be there to do that. It would have been nice to see grizzly bear open starting august 10th in 19c. The wolves have the caribou about beat.