Historically Low Alaska Sheep Harvest

[CodyAK]

I see hunting restrictions as a band aid to improve older (legal) ram numbers, AND as a priority mechanism for who gets to hunt.

I don't see it as a way to increase overall populations since we are dealing with a "surplus" of older rams that technically don't help population growth.

Of course the overall goal is to increase the number of available legal rams for all who wish to hunt.

I agree.

Some units allow subsistence hunters to take ewes, so nix that. But that would also be minimal impact.

We need more lambs so this circles back to pregnancy rates and survivability.

 

[CodyAK]

@wildwilderness

I suppose they need to do a local study on winter feeding.

 

[william schmaltz]

@wildwilderness

I suppose they need to do a local study on winter feeding.

A student just finished a multi year study on sheep forage and potential changes that have occurred to forage associated with warming temperatures this last spring. It will be interesting to see what he finds. It has been documented that forage grows less nutritious during warm, dry summers. Up until a week ago, it's safe to say we've had about as warm and dry of a summer as ever.

Another student started a snowpack research project this last year that will include already collared animals to look at foraging, habitat, and movement in relation to snowpack.

I'm particularly interested in the forage study and what that will show us. Several have suggested winter feeding. The department has stated several times that won't be happening. You would have to basically drop food from November until May so you wouldn't shock the system of them animals. And it would have to be very consistent b/c they would rely on it. Starting to drop food in March when things start to get really tough would be like opening the door of the WWII concentrations camps and letting everyone rush to a buffet. More harm than good. Not even sure how you would go about harvesting that much tundra? It's hard to form an argument against the department's stance on feeding sheep. As far as I'm concerned, if we need that much intervention to fight against nature, they're on their way to local extirpation and shouldn't be hunted.

 

[WalterH]

There is nothing that "we" can or will do to increase the number of Dall sheep on the mountain.

As has been noted repeatedly throughout these recent AK sheep threads, harvest is not a population level impact.

Curtailing or eliminating harvest will not have a population level impact up or down. It would mean more legal rams on the mountain, which is a factor for hunters and their desired experiences.

Therefore, constructive conversations on the topic should be aimed at that, managing people and their desired experiences, rather than managing the animals, which is an impossibility.

Nature and predators will do their thing and sheep numbers will fluctuate, all outside of our control.

Who gets access to the harvestable surplus, how, and when are the issues that we can and should try and address.

 

[CodyAK]

A student just finished a multi year study on sheep forage and potential changes that have occurred to forage associated with warming temperatures this last spring. It will be interesting to see what he finds. It has been documented that forage grows less nutritious during warm, dry summers. Up until a week ago, it's safe to say we've had about as warm and dry of a summer as ever.

Another student started a snowpack research project this last year that will include already collared animals to look at foraging, habitat, and movement in relation to snowpack.

I'm particularly interested in the forage study and what that will show us. Several have suggested winter feeding. The department has stated several times that won't be happening. You would have to basically drop food from November until May so you wouldn't shock the system of them animals. And it would have to be very consistent b/c they would rely on it. Starting to drop food in March when things start to get really tough would be like opening the door of the WWII concentrations camps and letting everyone rush to a buffet. More harm than good. Not even sure how you would go about harvesting that much tundra? It's hard to form an argument against the department's stance on feeding sheep. As far as I'm concerned, if we need that much intervention to fight against nature, they're on their way to local extirpation and shouldn't be hunted.

I can't disagree. It's quite the conundrum.

 

[Mykolaivka887]

Post study data clearly demonstrated that current pregancy rates approach 90%, yet birthing rates fluctuate annually between 5% and 60%, and the weight of neonates are low. Absorption (aborting) appears to be common, especially among an aging remnant population. So, there's an issue out there, for sure, and it really began to show itself several years after the residents of Alaska lobbied the State to change its sheep harvest strategy. Keep in mind that Dall sheep are a sixty (60) year recovery specie, so whatever we do now or within ten years from now, in order to correct the ever-steepening downward trend, is going to take a few decades to show positive result.

 

[thinhorn_AK]

Regardless of what the solution is, sheep should be closed to non residents permanently.

 

[Mykolaivka887]

Regardless of what the solution is, sheep should be closed to non residents permanently.

That isn't happening, ever. The legislature would never allow the Department or the board to overstep itself like that.

 

[thinhorn_AK]

That isn't happening, ever. The legislature would never allow the Department or the board to overstep itself like that.

You know what would be really cool is if you just stopped being a contrarian and just came out and said what you want to say. You claim to have the answer so put up or shut up.

 

[Clarktar]

Post study data clearly demonstrated that current pregancy rates approach 90%, yet birthing rates fluctuate annually between 5% and 60%, and the weight of neonates are low. Absorption (aborting) appears to be common, especially among an aging remnant population. So, there's an issue out there, for sure, and it really began to show itself several years after the residents of Alaska lobbied the State to change its sheep harvest strategy. Keep in mind that Dall sheep are a sixty (60) year recovery specie, so whatever we do now or within ten years from now, in order to correct the ever-steepening downward trend, is going to take a few decades to show positive result.

Are you suggesting there is some sort of density dependant mortality?

I'm not familiar with the history of Alaska harvest management when it comes to sheep, but I feel like you have alluded to a change that was made in the past (related to harvest) and that has exacerbated other factors that are contributing to decline (e.g., weather).

Fun guessing game we have here.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

 

[Yellowknife]

I'm not familiar with the history of Alaska harvest management when it comes to sheep, but I feel like you have alluded to a change that was made in the past (related to harvest) and that has exacerbated other factors that are contributing to decline (e.g., weather).

The only real substantial statewide management change we have made (IMO) in the last few decades was the transition to full curl regulation in 1992. That of course reduced our harvest, but shifted the demographics to an older portion of the population. The idea that FC would help increase the sheep population clearly hasn't panned out, but most hunters like the idea that it keeps the harvest levels reasonable without a draw system being involved.


There have been other fairly major changes (moving the Chugach to draw, etc), but Heimer's push for full curl, and the subsequent wholesale adoption by hunters I believe was really the watershed moment in sheep management up here in modern history.

Before that the big changes were moving form a two ram bag limit to one in the 1940's and then adoption of 3/4 curl the 1950's.

 

[Mykolaivka887]

..... you have alluded to a change that was made in the past (related to harvest) .....

After considerable analysis and contribution by the residents of Alaska, the State - based on the input and lobby effort of and by residents of Alaska - changed the policy, management/allocation goals, and harvest strategy back in 1975. It was actually a positive step forward.

Then, by lobby of Alaska residents, the State again changed its sheep harvest strategy in 1989, unbeknownst what climatic conditions were coming the next 30 years, and onward. Consequently, the current harvest strategy is not doing anything good for Alaska's ever diminishing Dall sheep population.

There's quite a bit of literature out there (Nichols, Geist, et al) that condemns the current harvest strategy, yet it's a hard sell to residents, sportsmen's groups, guides and outfitters, and some persons within the Department. In other words, it's not the politically correct approach and therefore, tough to sell.

 

[Mykolaivka887]

Just as a follow-up to the above post, I was involved with the planning process back in the 1970's. It was a good effort by all who were involved, including the Department. However, I was adamantly opposed to the change made to harvest strategy in the late 1980's/early 90's. Wasn't long after that change (circa 1998) that we began seeing some serious negative effects.

 

[WalterH]

Just as a follow-up to the above post, I was involved with the planning process back in the 1970's. It was a good effort by all who were involved, including the Department. However, I was adamantly opposed to the change made to harvest strategy in the late 1980's/early 90's. Wasn't long after that change (circa 1998) that we began seeing some serious negative effects.

What do you think of the Whitten report that seems to counter Geist/Nichols and offer the opposite and currently pushed scientific narrative in support of full curl harvest?

https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/home/library/pdfs/wildlife/research_pdfs/alces/4736.pdf

If most ewes are getting bred, which is the case, it doesn't seem like we have a ram abundance problem. There doesn't seem to be enough ewes to get bred and/or enough lambs being born and surviving to turn the decline around. Ram harvest has nothing to do with these things.

One point I do think may have merit and is worth more exploration , one that is raised in the Giest and Nichols reports and anecdotally by some hunters as well, is the loss of leadership problem affecting juvenile ram fitness and survival. While this may have ties to a lack of legal rams, again it does not have population level implications based on the pregnant ewe metric.

 

[Yellowknife]

Just as a follow-up to the above post, I was involved with the planning process back in the 1970's. It was a good effort by all who were involved, including the Department.

For reference for those that weren't there... The 1970's saw the establishment of various draw and management area's such as DCUA and Tok among other things. That was before my time, but I guess I can't argue it wasn't an active time in sheep management.

 

[wildwilderness]

From a population standpoint, if you get rid of the Full Curl requirement then you will need to put quotas based on manageable units derived from real population surveys. Then the fight over who gets what access to those limited permits will heat up.

What do you think the Current Supreme Court would rule if the State of AK sued for control over animals in the nat'l parks? Also to wrest control of wildlife from the federal subsistence board?

 

[Mykolaivka887]

What do you think the Current Supreme Court would rule if the State of AK sued for control over animals in the nat'l parks? Also to wrest control of wildlife from the federal subsistence board?

Governor Knowles dropped the lawsuit against the Interior Department, with prejudice. That ain't gonna happen, either.

 

[WalterH]

From a population standpoint, if you get rid of the Full Curl requirement then you will need to put quotas based on manageable units derived from real population surveys. Then the fight over who gets what access to those limited permits will heat up.

What do you think the Current Supreme Court would rule if the State of AK sued for control over animals in the nat'l parks? Also to wrest control of wildlife from the federal subsistence board?

They would rule that if the people want the laws passed by congress to be amended, they will need to lobby their elected officials to make that happen.

Existing statutory law is a much different topic than stare decisis.

 

[ReddingArcher]

I'm just curious, what is the total take by subsistance hunters? Mostly ewes? Immature rams? How much of an impact is that having on populations?

 

[WalterH]

I am not sure that info exists, and if it does, probably not in the public sphere. Based on the number of qualified people and the places that subsistence sheep hunting takes place, I don't think that subsistence harvest has had a population level impact in the past.

That having been said, based on current numbers, every ewe matters at this point.