I cant speak to this exact scenario. However, this late rifle season this year we rode the quads in to a glassing knob and it was low teens when we left the truck, probably mid teens when we got to the knob and we sat there for a good couple hours before spotting some elk. This was an exposed hillside with a modest constant facewind. While i felt the cold, I was not to the point of having to reconsider or think about building a fire.
My layers were: Aerowool T, Kuiu pro merino 200, Kuiu peloton 240 hoodie, Kuiu kenai vest, and finally my SG grumman.
That being said, depending on your definition of "thin" layers; id say you could potentially sit in near freezing to minimally sub freezing temps. The ticket is a wind stopping layer under that puffy to take the bite off.