Expo Tags - results

[CorbLand]

You can buy multiple of the same tag right? Or can you only buy 1?

1.

 

[Ucsdryder]

1.

Ohhhhh…. I assumed some people might be buying 20 plus for the same tag which might increase their odds past the mega millions!

 

[CorbLand]

Ohhhhh…. I assumed some people might be buying 20 plus for the same tag which might increase their odds past the mega millions!

Nope but you can buy a package that puts you in for all the tags. When you take that into account, the odds of drawing a tag increases.

 

[maxx075]

You can buy multiple of the same tag right? Or can you only buy 1?

I could only buy one of each tag - now that's just me being a normal person.

 

[CorbLand]

Redacted the amount raised because the cost per application varies based on what you buy.

 

[Trial153]

Your odds are you odds, they don’t go up. One chance to draw is one chance.

 

[Minute_of_Antelope]

Ohhhhh…. I assumed some people might be buying 20 plus for the same tag which might increase their odds past the mega millions!

Exactly. The fact that remi or the hush boyzzzz only get the same odds as anybody else is what makes this so comical.

If it was just guys increasing odds with cash that’s one thing…

 

[CorbLand]

Your odds are you odds, they don’t go up. One chance to draw is one chance.

The more tags you apply for the better odds you have of drawing A tag. Not a specific tag but A tag.

 

[Ucsdryder]

The more tags you apply for the better odds you have of drawing A tag. Not a specific tag but A tag.

464,000 tags sold. Hard to say any amount of purchases truly increases odds past a marginal amount. It’s been a minute since I took a math class but it looks like ones odds would be .04% if you bought the whole package.

This is why I passed on participating. I do play mega millions when it’s a billion because someone has to draw!!!

 

[Trial153]

The more tags you apply for the better odds you have of drawing A tag. Not a specific tag but A tag.

However each drawing is a vacuum and has no bearing on any other drawing.

 

[Trial153]

You have to look at this as pool. Let’s say there are 100 names you’d recognize if they were drawn.
What are the odds of drawing if you had 100 chances vs one in each drawing ?

 

[CorbLand]

You have to look at this as pool. Let’s say there are 100 names you’d recognize if they were drawn.
What are the odds of drawing if you had 100 chances vs one in each drawing ?

I am far from a statistical genius but I ran the odds for what I applied for.

5 tags
38537 applications
.00013 is my odds of getting one of those 5 tags

Someone who applied for all 200

200 tags
463343 applications
.000432 is the odds of getting one of those 200 tags

I could be wrong, I got a C in stats and havent really used it in 7 years.

Or do you add the odds of each tag to find your odds? I dont remember.

 

[Ucsdryder]

I am far from a statistical genius but I ran the odds for what I applied for.

5 tags
38537 applications
.00013 is my odds of getting one of those 5 tags

Someone who applied for all 200

200 tags
463343 applications
.000432 is the odds of getting one of those 200 tags

I could be wrong, I got a C in stats and havent really used it in 7 years.

Or do you add the odds of each tag to find your odds? I dont remember.

Let’s put our big brains together.

I think .00043 equates to .043%. I could be wrong though, I got by with my good looks.

 

[Minute_of_Antelope]

Now do the odds of the same guy drawing 2x in 3 years.

 

[wnelson14]

I am far from a statistical genius but I ran the odds for what I applied for.

5 tags
38537 applications
.00013 is my odds of getting one of those 5 tags

Someone who applied for all 200

200 tags
463343 applications
.000432 is the odds of getting one of those 200 tags

I could be wrong, I got a C in stats and havent really used it in 7 years.

Or do you add the odds of each tag to find your odds? I dont remember.

Hush Has 4 guys, 2 cameramen, and multiple children between them all (I think), My guess is they buy everyone they know friends, family, relatives, etc and put in for all of them. That would greatly increase their draw odds, and it's probably all ran through their business.

 

[CorbLand]

Let’s put our big brains together.

I think .00043 equates to .043%. I could be wrong though, I got by with my good looks.

You are correct.

I need a statistician.

If you add the odds up for each draw then someone that puts in for all 200 has a 7.8% chance.

 

[CorbLand]

Now do the odds of the same guy drawing 2x in 3 years.

Would take too much brain power but I would bet it is some number above 0.

 

[Jonesan20]

I wonder if he cried…

100 bucks say they talk up the 5 dollar tags on the episode. Talk about how great it is, and how everyone should do it.

You know he cried. Guy cries when he shoots a grouse.

 

[MTN BUM]

Now do the odds of the same guy drawing 2x in 3 years.

Assuming we hold the odds steady at the .043%, odds of drawing twice would be:

(.00043^2)*.99957= .00000018482 = .000018% chance of occurrence
or about 1 in 5.4 million

Do with that what you will. Maybe these people are just that lucky. And maybe I really am a fairy princess.

 

[HONEYBADGER]

Go back even further and look at Heather Farar wife of SFW mega donor. She got what 5 of the best tags raffled in less than 5 years. Because of her amazing luck they had to change the rules limiting the number of tags one person can draw to one per year.