Drawing Odds Calculation Question

COSA

Lil-Rokslider
Joined
Apr 29, 2012
Messages
215
Location
WY
For all you math gurus, it's been a long time since I took statistics:
Say you put in for 5 tags in a given year, with a 5% chance of drawing each individual tag - how would you calculate the odds of drawing any of those tags?
My "easy" button says to sum them up (25%), though I don't think this is correct (if you put in for 20 tags at 5% you still would not be guaranteed a tag). Thanks.
 

efnm

WKR
Joined
Oct 1, 2015
Messages
320
You need to determine the probability of NONE of the events happening and then subtract that from 1.

So, the odds of not getting that first tag is 95%, but the odds not getting any of those 5 tags is .95*.95*.95*.95*.95 = .774.

Therefore, your odds of getting at least one is 1-.774 = 22.6%
 

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