Colorado elk draw!

I drew a bowl of sadness and will begin slowly eating it until next April and sweet redemption comes again in application form.
 
Applied for a 1-2 point NR archery unit as first choice and a second choice with about 25% odds. Struck out on both which wasn’t a surprise.

I’ll be one of those NR archery hunters crowding an OTC rifle unit this year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
One thing I keep getting reminded of since my Sr Prom night back in 1987 and every NR western tag draw since is there is no such thing as a “sure thing”. Trying to predict people behavior with the saturation of information available and all the algorithms, bots and social media factors is impossible. Some people just get lucky in their choices while others are not. The one thing I have never liked about Colorado, shoot me if you disagree, is the ability to build points and still hunt. I believe if you get a tag whether it be from the primary, secondary or leftover list, then it should cost you your points. Being able to hunt and still build points is what contributes to all the hunters on this post saying they should have had a “sure thing”.
For the last 3 years I too have been chasing a unit with a slight chance of drawing based on last years data but a snowballs chance in hell based on people behavior. Congrats on those of you with elk tags this year. Enjoy your time in the mountains


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I think people underestimated the amount of NR archery hunters that were collecting preference points. If their only option for a tag is to actually participate in the draw then they might as well apply and use their points.

75/25 + no OTC NR archery + more active participating NR 1st choices = NR point creep

The stats will show significant NR creep but the same unit had normal/limited creep for RES.
 
IrkedCitizen said:
I think people underestimated the amount of NR archery hunters that were collecting preference points. If their only option for a tag is to actually participate in the draw then they might as well apply and use their points.

75/25 + no OTC NR archery + more active participating NR 1st choices = NR point creep

The stats will show significant NR creep but the same unit had normal/limited creep for RES.
Click to expand...
This seems feasible, 1st choice something nice and 2nd choice their old OTC unit. Lots of them probably didn't draw due to creep so it's gonna be inflated again for a few years probably.
 
ScreamingPotato said:
This seems feasible, 1st choice something nice and 2nd choice their old OTC unit. Lots of them probably didn't draw due to creep so it's gonna be inflated again for a few years probably.
Click to expand...
Well, in a few years (2028) there will be massive point inflation due to the random component. It’ll be like AZ or UT. It would be lovely if there were an equitable way to get away from points. Unfortunately, point systems are more profitable for government.
 
awcopeland said:
Well, in a few years (2028) there will be massive point inflation due to the random component. It’ll be like AZ or UT. It would be lovely if there were an equitable way to get away from points. Unfortunately, point systems are more profitable for government.
Click to expand...
I have commented about the 2028 draw. I don't think much will change in the way people apply (proof in link below) There will be point creep as it is inevitable. There will definitely be people getting lucky in the bonus draw but that has been happening with moose/goat/sheep forever. People with 25pp losing to people with 3pp. So there will be the occasional 0pp holders drawing trophy units



I

Post in thread '7 NR points in Colorado'

I'm fairly certain that at least 50% of the applicants for Colorado Big Game licenses don't know how preference points truly function. Chances are they already believe it functions like the upcoming 2028 bonus draw where your preference points are equal to the amount of times your name is in the hat. So in 2028 there will simply be some people who apply as normal and get lucky and draw a tag who didn't have a chance previously.

I don't really see much changing with how people apply besides the fact that you can no longer apply for a preference point only starting in 2028. The only...
 
IrkedCitizen said:
I have commented about the 2028 draw. I don't think much will change in the way people apply (proof in link below) There will be point creep as it is inevitable. There will definitely be people getting lucky in the bonus draw but that has been happening with moose/goat/sheep forever. People with 25pp losing to people with 3pp. So there will be the occasional 0pp holders drawing trophy units



I

Post in thread '7 NR points in Colorado'

I'm fairly certain that at least 50% of the applicants for Colorado Big Game licenses don't know how preference points truly function. Chances are they already believe it functions like the upcoming 2028 bonus draw where your preference points are equal to the amount of times your name is in the hat. So in 2028 there will simply be some people who apply as normal and get lucky and draw a tag who didn't have a chance previously.

I don't really see much changing with how people apply besides the fact that you can no longer apply for a preference point only starting in 2028. The only...
Click to expand...
I agree with what you’re saying. I think we’re on the same page. I truly just wanted to go hunting this year. I was pretty sure I’d get 1 CO tag. I’m thrilled that I picked up a tag that was a new hunt code.
 
Another year, another draw and another point added. even my second choice was not granted and thats for a unit that requires 0 points.
I guess I will go OTC this year then
 
My two partners and I got first choice, either sex, 1R... 086. And now I think we are each questioning our life choices. Going down for some scouting, with a full pack, to see exactly how much we've bitten off.
Public land starts at 8k and goes up for 4k ft.
 
Draw reports are posted. There was some wild things that took place in the now limited NR archery units. Some preference points were spent. There was only one hunt code that has no tags remaining after the draw. Tons of those tags remaining for secondary and likely leftover.


That said, Let's look at the change in number of applicants over the past five draws to show the data points.

2021 elk 1st choice applicants
Screenshot_20250602_124341_Drive.jpg
2022 elk 1st choice applicants
Screenshot_20250602_124430_Drive.jpg
2023 elk 1st choice applicants
Screenshot_20250602_124535_Drive.jpg
2024 elk 1st choice applicants
Screenshot_20250602_124644_Drive.jpg
2025 elk 1st choice applicants
Screenshot_20250602_124809_Chrome.jpg

So there was an increase of 15,680 NR applicants this year over 2024. With an increase of 27,388 NR applicants total since 2021. Where there has been a decrease of 7,915 RES since 2021.


Let's now look at the amount of 0pp applicants from 2024 and 2025

2024
Screenshot_20250602_124644_Drive.jpg
2025
Screenshot_20250602_124809_Chrome.jpg
Of those 15,680 only 7,404 were applicants with 0pp. Meaning 8,276 had 1pp or more.

Apparently there were a lot of NR with points who were sitting idle. Who knows why they were sitting idle but getting rid of NR OTC archery appears to have got them active.



Finally, let's look at applicants who used the preference point code as 1st choice

2022
Screenshot_20250602_124106_Drive.jpg
2023
Screenshot_20250602_124008_Drive.jpg
2024
Screenshot_20250602_123905_Drive.jpg
2025
Screenshot_20250602_123756_Chrome.jpg

Between 2024 and 2025 there was an increase of 6,292 NR applicants who applied for a point. Someone else can figure out how many of the 8,276 applied for more points versus a tag but there had to be at least roughly 2,000 of them who applied for a first choice tag.

Needless to say there was enough increase in applicants to cause significant NR point creep
 
any idea how to get the stats for mule deer? neither elk nor deer is published on the website yet...
 
A few of the units in the link you posted had Archery results. Most only had rifle results. Did I miss something?
 
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