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That's what I do and cross reference with the harvest stats knowing where I likely standI am not sure. But they more than likely do. I have always just looked at the recaps and figured my own predictive odds. I was off this year for sure. I was pretty sure that I would draw 4th season deer. So sure that I only bought an elk PP instead of the 1st rifle tag that I wanted and have plenty of points for (maybe).
Now down to waiting on pronghorn to come out. First time applying for it. Have 4pts and applied for 1pt tag (last year).
Not only that, they don’t know how many people will apply for what unit, and at what point level. So predictive odds are based on math from two unknown metrics. How accurate could they possibly be?Predictive draw odds DO NOT account for tag allocation changes year over year accurately at all. They only work in stable units.
How do you predict when CPW cuts a unit tag allocation by 50% after the draw deadline.
Same. I figured we had about a 50% chance. We didn't draw, but will interested in seeing the recap reports.I have not and will not ever have go hunt.
Not that I think they are bad people and have a bad product. It’s only because I know that if I started taking rails of cocaine, there wouldn’t be much stopping and the world would become a very fuzzy place.
I’d rather just look at draws from last year in each state and form my own opinions. Usually it works out for me when I go with underdog units and haven’t really gotten burned in a draw for 10+ years.
Edit: I also need to add that I don’t go for fridge/hard to draw units in Colorado. I just rather have the preference point and draw what I know I can draw. I think point creep next year is gonna be huge and I think 2028 is just gonna make it a mess. This is also coming from a guy who used to draw 76 Archery Elk with 2 to 4 points..
Also learned how accurate they areTIL people don’t understand predictive analytics
TIL garbage in garbage outTIL people don’t understand predictive analytics