Maverick1
WKR
- Joined
- Jun 1, 2013
- Messages
- 2,354
Is this turning into another fantasy land thread about how everyone has an opinion about how a preference point system should work? How grandiose.
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LOL probably. What else are we supposed to do? Hunting season doesn't start for most folks for at least another month.Is this turning into another fantasy land thread about how everyone has an opinion about how a preference point system should work? How grandiose.
LOL probably. What else are we supposed to do? Hunting season doesn't start for most folks for at least another month.
We also saw "what revolver?" and "what tent?" this week. Now we just need to do "what bird dog" and we'll be covered...
Thanks for the answer. I only explained how I expect the new system to effect me, and I was wondering what other people are expecting. You make some great points. It sucks a little that the people who like to save for 4-8 point hunts will see their points get devalued in 2028, but on the other hand those same people will have a chance at tags that were previously out of reach. If I assume OTC rifle will stay an option, a person could apply for a chance at a really good random draw tag, still get a point when they fail, and still go OTC hunting as a better than nothing option.@Tim Steinmetz I'm betting the new system will have very little impact on the current units that are drawing with a couple points.
I'm in favor of the hybrid system. You can still be in guaranteed percentage of tags with enough points or maybe get lucky in the random draw portion for a tag that was otherwise FOREVER beyond your reach.
It did screw over those in the top tier point holder group in favor of those with less points to give everyone some buy-in into a system that was otherwise clearly failing the majority of Colorado sportsmen.
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And then manscaping! WKR’s unite!Can't forget to talk about whether a hot dog is a taco...
I really don’t know, but I don’t worry about everyone else. That probably sounds self centered or arrogant, but it’s the truth. I only hunt in my home state and don’t hunt anywhere else. It makes it simple for me.I get that, but who are these changes going to be good for? I guess if you want to buy a lotto ticket for a random draw tag that was previously only available to high point holders.
I think quite a few guys in that range will be attempting to dump the points, meaning if you want to actually dump your points now you're looking at hunting 2-3 pt units with your 5 because that sudden pressure in that range will cause them to draw higher (look at the draw reports if you wanna math it out). Once '28 hits that'll probably reset and things will get back to normal (whatever that is) levels in terms of demand. By then you'll have 8 points and probably could hunt an 8 point unit (8 pt in '28, not to be confused with 8 point unit this year because we'll still have creep).Maybe somebody can give me a better answer or insight on this but lets say a NR has 5 deer points.. would you A) Burn them in 2026 or 2027 not knowing how this hybrid would affect the draw for a unit that should be a near guarentee to draw? or B) wait until the hybrid takes place when applicant has 7-8 Preference Points and apply for a unit that requires 10 PP to guarantee a tag and hope you have a 25-50% chance at it?
I wouldn’t be so sure things will go back to “normal”. A portion of these tags will go to random draw, which means less tags available for the point holders. Less tags + same number of applicants = more point creep. Which is why people are trying to draw tags ahead of 2028 in the first place.I think quite a few guys in that range will be attempting to dump the points, meaning if you want to actually dump your points now you're looking at hunting 2-3 pt units with your 5 because that sudden pressure in that range will cause them to draw higher (look at the draw reports if you wanna math it out). Once '28 hits that'll probably reset and things will get back to normal (whatever that is) levels in terms of demand. By then you'll have 8 points and probably could hunt an 8 point unit (8 pt in '28, not to be confused with 8 point unit this year because we'll still have creep).
Better have some deep pockets, 160+ contiguous acres in decent units will run you deep into 6 figures and potentially 7 figures in a lot of the state…So like NM.....random. Either way, just makes more sense to buy land in CO, WY, ID or MT if you can afford it if you want to hunt. Maybe I am incorrect here, but.......
Yeah normal is probably not the right term, what I'm attempting to convey from my mind's eye is more along the lines of leveling the demand back out. Seems like if somebody has a lot of points they're just gonna keep building because they have a goal, those of us in that short range 4-6 points or so seem to be the group wanting to dump them before '28 so my theory is anything in that 4-6 point range is probably going to get more than normal amount of apps for the next couple years then after the changes level off back to their "normal" amount of demand. Just WAGing at this point though because it's offseason and I ran out of money to spend on new gear and need something to kill the time.I wouldn’t be so sure things will go back to “normal”. A portion of these tags will go to random draw, which means less tags available for the point holders. Less tags + same number of applicants = more point creep. Which is why people are trying to draw tags ahead of 2028 in the first place.
That being said, I don’t mind the opportunity to snag a tag in the random draw in the future.
The next in line thing excites me the most.Yeah none of us will really know what it will do, I mean point creep in the really hard to draw units is a given, but lower/ mid tier who knows? I for one am super excited to finally get a hard cap for 1st and 2nd choices and I’m not all that torn up about the next in line issue, will give guys who actually want that tag the tag, should cut down on some of the, hey I grabbed something off the leftover and have no clue why?! Threads haha
Agreed.....just how bad does one want to 'hunt' each year? Pay to play!Better have some deep pockets, 160+ contiguous acres in decent units will run you deep into 6 figures and potentially 7 figures in a lot of the state…
True! A buddy of mine has 163 with a nice cabin on it, an adjacent place that was like 275 acres just sold for 1.2 million with no house on itAgreed.....just how bad does one want to 'hunt' each year? Pay to play!
You probably should have applied out west if you want to hunt this year. Do you have good reason to believe you'll draw in Maine? If so, how? Just curious, I thought the odds were terrible, at least too terrible to "plan" on drawing. I've applied five us three years already with no luck, and that was 10 chances each for me and the wife and sometimes older kids.I get what ol' tim is saying... but also if you don't think you'll have the time or money that year dont apply. I'm waiting to see if I drew a Maine moose tag, I may have less than 3 months to plan, and pay for the trip. I also knew that going in.. it's also why I didn't apply to go out west and just buy points this year.
CO just isn't the state to shoot for trophy tags. There are so many tags, you'll be able to hunt every other year if not every year for a while longer. Just look at the number of second draw and leftover tags.This new Colorado system will basically make the mid-range tags unreachable for me. These are the tags that take 5-10 points in the current system. I'm assuming these tags will require way more points (maybe 10-20?) to draw with certainty in the 2028 system, and again, the random thing doesn't really work for me.
It certainly F's the people on the cusp of drawing one of those tags. For the other 99.9% people, nothing is changing, we had 0% chance to draw those tags now and we'll only improve to 0.0001% with the changes.I also expect that eliminating the preference point hunt code will only serve to explode the draw odds for GMUs 1, 2, 201, 10, 61, etc. Now all the people who only want a point will just apply for those hunts intsead, which is not very fair to the people who legitimately want to draw those tags and are close to qualifying in the current system.
You can plan MT.... My experience there was on par with CO.I need to be able to plan for hunts and start saving money and vacation 1-2 years in advance. Random draw systems do not work for this.
Oh ill deer hunt and probably hunt the same 1/2 dozen states with the bird dogs. But Maine moose is a "bucket list" that i apply for every year. Same as all the states with elk now on east coast. I'll apply in my home state of NC if it ever happens as well.You probably should have applied out west if you want to hunt this year. Do you have good reason to believe you'll draw in Maine? If so, how? Just curious, I thought the odds were terrible, at least too terrible to "plan" on drawing. I've applied five us three years already with no luck, and that was 10 chances each for me and the wife and sometimes older kids.
Yeah, in the near term I'm expecting a few years that remind us of trying to buy toilet paper in 2020 with everyone rushing to dump their points before they get devalued in 2028. Then we'll see what the new normal is after that levels out.Yeah normal is probably not the right term, what I'm attempting to convey from my mind's eye is more along the lines of leveling the demand back out. Seems like if somebody has a lot of points they're just gonna keep building because they have a goal, those of us in that short range 4-6 points or so seem to be the group wanting to dump them before '28 so my theory is anything in that 4-6 point range is probably going to get more than normal amount of apps for the next couple years then after the changes level off back to their "normal" amount of demand. Just WAGing at this point though because it's offseason and I ran out of money to spend on new gear and need something to kill the time.
Thanks for your input. All great points. I also expect the middle point holders saving for 5-10 point tags in today's system to get screwed over to some extent. I don't personally care about the trophy units, but if the units that are 5-10 points today become much less attainable despite a small chance of pulling a random, that will be disappointing.CO just isn't the state to shoot for trophy tags. There are so many tags, you'll be able to hunt every other year if not every year for a while longer. Just look at the number of second draw and leftover tags.
Build points in AZ or UT if you willing to wait 10 years for a trophy tag.
It certainly F's the people on the cusp of drawing one of those tags. For the other 99.9% people, nothing is changing, we had 0% chance to draw those tags now and we'll only improve to 0.0001% with the changes.
You can plan MT.... My experience there was on par with CO.