CO 1st Rifle Weather Warning

[Poser]

If you're heading out for 1st Rifle early or even the day before, we have a tropical storm moving through are expecting an historical rain even. Parts of the San Juans are looking at up 8 inches of rain. Even 3 inches of rains for the lower lying areas is historical in nature. Expect mudslides, washed out roads and creeks at Spring levels.

Our local weather guy had this to say:
10/10/25 Friday 3 am

In all of the years I have been attempting to forecast weather in Colorado (+/-26 years), I have never seen a one-week model precipitation forecast this high in our state.

 

[awcopeland]

I usually watch the Day Weather Podcast on YouTube but the local knowledge is really great to have.

 

[justinspicher]

It’s been raining on and off for almost twelve hours at my place in SW Colorado. I’m between Pagosa and Durango at 7400’. Not real cold, between the low to mid 50s. The forest service roads around these parts don’t get much maintenance and this storm is really gonna jack them up. Be careful out there.

If you’re gonna be in this area during 1st rifle and need some assistance, don’t hesitate to reach out. I’ll try and help however I can.

 

[RockAndSage]

That one's gonna hurt...

 

[Poser]

If you’re gonna be in this area during 1st rifle and need some assistance, don’t hesitate to reach out. I’ll try and help however I can.

You know you're going to regret that offer if I have to reach out....

 

[FuddRucker]

Driving out there for 1st rifle tomorrow. Was planning to do it in one day, but we'll see how it goes. Hopefully the NF roads aren't too washed out. May have to call an audible on a few spots depending on conditions.

 

[Roor]

Heading that way Monday.

 

[justinspicher]

You know you're going to regret that offer if I have to reach out....

Probably, but I’m always up for an adventure.

 

[justinspicher]

For those of you heading out to SW Colorado for 1st rifle, if you want drop me a pm with a basic plan and contact info “just in case” feel free. I don’t have any plans and will be available to help out if you need it.

 

[SloppyJ]

Headed out on the 22nd for 2nd rifle. We have a long way to make it back in so I'm sure this is going to mess it up.

 

[Gerbdog]

Take the warning seriously, this area in CO in question is the same that has killed a few hunters this year already, be prepared, its cold at night, slippery on the deadfall with all the rain, and generally pretty tough conditions.

 

[Coveyleader]

Don’t forget your matches and learn how to make a fire when you’re wet. Make sure you have Sitka or Kuiu instead of that garbage bag, and the list goes on.


Hell you have time to turn the tag in…..too risky!

 

[LongWayAround]

That forecast is nuts. What's the temperature supposed to be?

 

[Poser]

That forecast is nuts. What's the temperature supposed to be?

Because its a tropical storm, its very warm. Probably won't see much snow below 12k or higher during the day. Its 60 degrees in Durango (6500 feet) right now with lows only in the high 40s. Silverton is 45 with a low of 40 at 9,200 feet.

 

[Olsolitaire1]

It is wet and sloppy slick out there and looks like this until Thursday, warm right now, but sure there will be snow in the high country.

With NOAA you can do zone forecast. I use NOAA all the time very spot on for the most part in remote areas. Be safe.

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov

 

[Colorado Cowboy]

Just looked at the latest forecast for Dolores/Cortez area and it is for rain from now until next Saturday. With the Forest Service shut down because of damn politics, be very careful because help could be several hours away. Been a dry summer with lots of deadfall, leaves and trash in all the draws that could wash out lots of culverts.

The only real advantage is any tracks in the mud or snow will be fresh!

 

[Poser]

This storm should have elk fairly hemmed down for a couple of days so potentially see a burst of activity come mid week when the season opens.

I was lamenting the opener being pushed back to Wednesday, but if it opened tomorrow as it has for the last several years, it would make for a very difficult season.

 

[justin davis]

My forecast doesn’t show anything for that time frame. Looks sunny and nice for 1st rifle

 

[Fever Buck]

Thanks for the heads up. Looks like NW CO will get some weather but shouldn’t be as bad hopefully.

 

[pods8 (Rugged Stitching)]

For anyone that doesn't carry them normally a strong recommendation for tire chains (that you verified fit your rig) if you plan to wander onto non-paved roads. The gumbo mud can get nasty and if there isn't freezing temps at night you can't wait till Xam and drive out on frozen soil like late season. Sliding sideways on slanted roads is a pucker factor, be prepared.